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Yeah, he’s always been an overachiever!Our very own @cwbullet got flu and Covid at the same time in 2021, just as he was getting his vaccination, as I recall.
Yeah, he’s always been an overachiever!Our very own @cwbullet got flu and Covid at the same time in 2021, just as he was getting his vaccination, as I recall.
I have it stuck in my head from the start of the pandemic that COVID was somewhere between 5-10 times more deadly than the flu.
Chuck, it looks like our area covid cases have peaked and are just beginning to trend down. Our hospital is still full, but the covid and vent numbers are heading down. Are you seeing the same trends in larger regions?
. . . Worse, at the moment, it appears that Kim Jong Un may be prepared to lose more of his subjects to starvation, due to trade restrictions, than he otherwise might have from COVID.
We appear to have peaked in Florida. Here is the latest from the NYT. I hope this is the light at the end of the tunnel.It varies state by state. We may be starting to trend down in GA. I sure hope so. Our Local NAR club canceled the launch because the landowner wants us to be below 15% positivity. I have to respect their wishes.
We appear to have peaked in Florida. Here is the latest from the NYT. I hope this is the light at the end of the tunnel.View attachment 499673
We appear to have peaked in Florida. Here is the latest from the NYT. I hope this is the light at the end of the tunnel.View attachment 499673
better than the headlight of an oncoming train!I hope this is the light at the end of the tunnel.
While we await Chuck's reply, see detailed discussion on these matters here:Dr. Chuck,
On Wednesday Dr.Welenski said that about 75% of the recent Covid deaths occurred in people with 4 OR MORE co-morbidities. To me that sounds astounding and new information I haven't heard before.
So my first question is what exactly counts as a morbidity? Is that list on a CDC website somewhere?
Then my second question is that since this statistic is tracked, how can we find how many deaths occur in unvaccinated people with no comorbidity as per the CDC definition?
So my first question is what exactly counts as a morbidity?
Idaho doesn't appear to have peaked yet. The hospitals are starting to talk about going back to crisis standards of care. To make matters worse there are about 18,000 confirmed cases that have not yet been added to the graph below.
View attachment 499782
Short story: it's not news, it's been that way since the beginning, and most of the comorbidities listed on the death certificates are issues caused by having COVID.
Dr. Chuck,
On Wednesday Dr.Welenski said that about 75% of the recent Covid deaths occurred in people with 4 OR MORE co-morbidities. To me that sounds astounding and new information I haven't heard before.
So my first question is what exactly counts as a morbidity? Is that list on a CDC website somewhere?
Then my second question is that since this statistic is tracked, how can we find how many deaths occur in unvaccinated people with no comorbidity as per the CDC definition?
Its not news that comorbidities elevates the death risk. What IS news is that 75% of the deaths had 4 or more (not one or 2). What is the elevated death risk if you are unvaccinated and have no comorbidities?
Chuck, do we have an estimate of what percentage of the population (not hospital visitors) may have 4 or more comorbidities ( all 4 or more in one individual)?About 6% of those that die of COVID are without a comorbid condition and nearly all are unvaccinated. That is about as close as I can come to answer to your question. The predicitive models for risk determination are not very good with Omicron.
The problem with this question is that when someone dies of covid, many or most of the comorbidities are due to the COVID. Pneumonia, respiratory disorders, and so on.Chuck, do we have an estimate of what percentage of the population (not hospital visitors) may have 4 or more comorbidities ( all 4 or more in one individual)?
After a little digging, it seems that the social media amateurs left out one important piece of information: The 75% rate refers to deaths in FULLY VACCINATED individuals, not all deaths. It confirms the effectiveness of the vaccines.Its not news that comorbidities elevates the death risk. What IS news is that 75% of the deaths had 4 or more (not one or 2).
After a little digging, it seems that the social media amateurs left out one important piece of information: The 75% rate refers to deaths in FULLY VACCINATED individuals, not all deaths. It confirms the effectiveness of the vaccines.
Read the details here:
Do 75% of All Covid Deaths Involve People With 4 Comorbidities? | Snopes.com
I believe this is the study the FDA director cited:
Risk Factors for Severe COVID-19 Outcomes Among Persons Aged ≥18 Years Who Completed a Primary COVID-19 Vaccination Series — 465 Health Care Facilities, United States, December 2020–October 2021 | MMWR (cdc.gov)
Excerpt:
"Risk factors for severe outcomes included age ≥65 years, immunosuppressed, and six other underlying conditions. All persons with severe outcomes had at least one risk factor; 78% of persons who died had at least four."
What does this mean for unvaxxed people with zero comorbidities? Certainly the data shows that the unvaxxed have a higher risk of hospitalization or death from Covid than the vaxxed.. Also keep in mind that one could have a comorbidity and not know it. And as MarcG alluded to, there are what is referred to as downstream comorbidities that only manifest after contracting the illness, since they are caused by the illness. For example, if a death certificate says cause of death was by "Covid and respiratory failure" and the patient did not have signs of respiratory problems prior to the infection, then it would be likely that Covid caused the respiratory failure.
Thanks for digging into this, the clip played on the radio station I was listening to did not provide this detail.After a little digging, it seems that the social media amateurs left out one important piece of information: The 75% rate refers to deaths in FULLY VACCINATED individuals, not all deaths. It confirms the effectiveness of the vaccines.
Read the details here:
Do 75% of All Covid Deaths Involve People With 4 Comorbidities? | Snopes.com
I believe this is the study the FDA director cited:
Risk Factors for Severe COVID-19 Outcomes Among Persons Aged ≥18 Years Who Completed a Primary COVID-19 Vaccination Series — 465 Health Care Facilities, United States, December 2020–October 2021 | MMWR (cdc.gov)
Excerpt:
"Risk factors for severe outcomes included age ≥65 years, immunosuppressed, and six other underlying conditions. All persons with severe outcomes had at least one risk factor; 78% of persons who died had at least four."
What does this mean for unvaxxed people with zero comorbidities? Certainly the data shows that the unvaxxed have a higher risk of hospitalization or death from Covid than the vaxxed.. Also keep in mind that one could have a comorbidity and not know it. And as MarcG alluded to, there are what is referred to as downstream comorbidities that only manifest after contracting the illness, since they are caused by the illness. For example, if a death certificate says cause of death was by "Covid and respiratory failure" and the patient did not have signs of respiratory problems prior to the infection, then it would be likely that Covid caused the respiratory failure.
But they serve great Hunan.China — not always the best place to be a human.
Chuck, a question:
Short version: based on what we've learned and observed in the last two years, and now extrapolating for delta and omicron, what is the maximum reasonable incubation period between exposure and getting symptoms?
The reason I ask is that early on in the pandemic we heard the incubation period could be as long as 21 days, and I and many others were skeptical that a coronavirus would have such a long incubation period. My personal theory at the time was that those 2-3 week incubation cases might well have been due to not to the original exposure but due to unknown second exposures perhaps to asymptomatic spreaders. Some months into it, say spring 2020, it became clear that there were a lot of asymptomatic infections and that it was possible for these people to spread to some extent. I saw some articles speculating that the 2+week incubation cases may well not actually have been due to the original known exposure, but it wasn't very definitive at the time.
So, fast forward to 2022... we've learned a lot in general and now have much more contagious variants than we originally did. Based on your research and first hand experience, what's the longest reasonable incubation period for the variants we are dealing with?
Thanks!
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