I’ve thought about how to incentivize people to get vaccinated. I think the best strategy is to tell people there aren’t enough to go around and create the appearance of scarcity. Some who would not otherwise get vaccinated will rush out to get it. Mandating vaccinations is the worst idea, because some who might otherwise get the vaccine will refuse to preserve their liberty.
Coronavirus: What questions do you have?
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The actively practicing medical personnel need to get it first. Especially hospital nurses and/or anyone who has the prospect of high risk exposure like hospital support staff . True, anyone should have right of refusal but with a virus that's killed so many and if one has one or more risk factors, it's stupid not to consider it.
Nursing home patients and staff are an important group. Then come the rank and file elderly and everyone else.
I'm going to put off getting it not out of fear but simply the limited supplies should go to those at most risk. There have only been 1116 cases in my county with 7 deaths. I'm retired so I have no problem with sheltering in place. It's rare when I go out in public that I don't see people wearing masks. I still have to go out shopping although I've seen some very paranoid medical persons have everything delivered to their homes. I didn't go that far as in the beginning the incidence here was just so dog gone low. As soon as vaccine supplies are adequate, I won't hesitate to get it. December 1st I have a well check and will get the flu shot then. Kurt
Nursing home patients and staff are an important group. Then come the rank and file elderly and everyone else.
I'm going to put off getting it not out of fear but simply the limited supplies should go to those at most risk. There have only been 1116 cases in my county with 7 deaths. I'm retired so I have no problem with sheltering in place. It's rare when I go out in public that I don't see people wearing masks. I still have to go out shopping although I've seen some very paranoid medical persons have everything delivered to their homes. I didn't go that far as in the beginning the incidence here was just so dog gone low. As soon as vaccine supplies are adequate, I won't hesitate to get it. December 1st I have a well check and will get the flu shot then. Kurt
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Do you have some references to show that the COVID-19 vaccines being pushed now are derived as you say from previous coronavirus vaccine work? And how successful were the trials for those previous vaccines?
NateB
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Here is an article from 2004 that discusses SARS vaccine trials in mice that used altered DNA structures to mimick the virus protein that binds to a host cell receptor, allowing the virus to enter the host cell and replicate. The goal is for the immune system to recognize this protein and start to create antibodies so when the real virus enters the body, the immune system can respond before the virus has a chance to replicate and cause illness. This was different than most previous vaccines which use inactive virus or viral particles to stimulate an immune response.
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2004/03/sars-vaccine-works-well-mice-niaid-says
The company BioNTech is the one who partnered with Pfizer on their vaccine. They used their experience in cancer research and immune system therapies to develop the messanger RNA based vaccine which also stimulates an immune response without using inactive virus particles.
https://medcitynews.com/2020/07/pfizer-biontech-get-fast-track-from-fda-for-covid-19-vaccines/
I would really have to dig to find out why the scientists from different companies both focused on the mRNA techniques for this vaccine. I probably wouldn't understand it, but there is certainly previous studies that made those techniques the most promising.
I am not making the claim that the SARS vaccines that were under development in 2003 and 2004 were changed into the covid-19 vaccines that are expected to be released soon. I am stating that the research used for other coronavirus and other immune system therapies, what worked and what didn't work, were certainly applied to the vaccines candidates we are hoping to receive soon.
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2004/03/sars-vaccine-works-well-mice-niaid-says
The company BioNTech is the one who partnered with Pfizer on their vaccine. They used their experience in cancer research and immune system therapies to develop the messanger RNA based vaccine which also stimulates an immune response without using inactive virus particles.
https://medcitynews.com/2020/07/pfizer-biontech-get-fast-track-from-fda-for-covid-19-vaccines/
I would really have to dig to find out why the scientists from different companies both focused on the mRNA techniques for this vaccine. I probably wouldn't understand it, but there is certainly previous studies that made those techniques the most promising.
I am not making the claim that the SARS vaccines that were under development in 2003 and 2004 were changed into the covid-19 vaccines that are expected to be released soon. I am stating that the research used for other coronavirus and other immune system therapies, what worked and what didn't work, were certainly applied to the vaccines candidates we are hoping to receive soon.
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Dr Fauci today made a point that the vaccine does not prevent a person from shedding the virus to others if infected in the future. A vaccine does not mean we can stop using masks and social distances. I don't know if that information will make it out to the average person.
NateB
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This raises another question:
In a vaccinated person, is the viral shedding as the immune system attacks the virus large enough of a viral load to infect another person? We know from other vaccines that disease can be prevented entirely the symptoms more mild in a vaccinated person - are there any studies that show this person can still transmit the disease to others?
Our medical director was hoping that with widespread vaccination, we might be able to only cope with a few Covid outbreak hot spots in different places. Will this be enough stop using masks and allow crowded events again?
CHIMs take time by definition. I have read about using different biostatistical models to shorten them. In general, the COVID vaccine is low risk and relatively safe. It is will not be risk-free, but over 3000-6000 people have taken the vaccine with minimal side effects that could be tied to the vaccines. Like I said before, I would take the risk.
We hope that vaccination over time will reduce the infectivity. No idea at this stage if it will reduce viral load, but suspect it will reduce viral shedding overall. I suspect that we will get back to crowded events some day.
rocketsaway
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What's this about ?
"NO MEANINGFUL EFFECT
The WHO’s Guideline Development Group (GDG) panel said its recommendation was based on an evidence review that included data from four international randomised trials involving more than 7,000 patients hospitalised with COVID-19.
After reviewing the evidence, the panel said it concluded that remdesivir, which has to be given intravenously and is therefore costly and complex to administer, has no meaningful effect on death rates or other important outcomes for patients."
"NO MEANINGFUL EFFECT
The WHO’s Guideline Development Group (GDG) panel said its recommendation was based on an evidence review that included data from four international randomised trials involving more than 7,000 patients hospitalised with COVID-19.
After reviewing the evidence, the panel said it concluded that remdesivir, which has to be given intravenously and is therefore costly and complex to administer, has no meaningful effect on death rates or other important outcomes for patients."
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I’ve seen reports that the Pfizer vaccine has a 90% effectiveness rate. Which actually is pretty darn good for a vaccine.
That 10% “hole” is still pretty scary when you’re dealing with something of this potential severity.
Will it be helpful/useful to draw antibody titers say a month after the final dose of each individual patient’s vaccine is given?
In other words, will laboratory demonstration of an effective antibody response serve as a surrogate for successful vaccination (will it weed out the failed 10%, who would either need another vaccination or persistent masking and social distancing?)
Or is it possible that the 10% failure rate are failing despite production of effective antibody levels?
Likely the answer is we don’t know.
That 10% “hole” is still pretty scary when you’re dealing with something of this potential severity.
Will it be helpful/useful to draw antibody titers say a month after the final dose of each individual patient’s vaccine is given?
In other words, will laboratory demonstration of an effective antibody response serve as a surrogate for successful vaccination (will it weed out the failed 10%, who would either need another vaccination or persistent masking and social distancing?)
Or is it possible that the 10% failure rate are failing despite production of effective antibody levels?
Likely the answer is we don’t know.
I have really enjoyed this thread.
Today, I start a trek home. I am taking a little hiatus. I will post when I can, but it will be delayed.
As we approach Thanksgiving, I want to wish everyone a happy, safe Thanksgiving.
Today, I start a trek home. I am taking a little hiatus. I will post when I can, but it will be delayed.
As we approach Thanksgiving, I want to wish everyone a happy, safe Thanksgiving.
Stay safe, but we all hope that you have a healthy and joyous Thanksgiving. Our traditional large family gathering has been cancelled in favor of several smaller gatherings of immediate family since we have already been exposed to one another anyway. So, instead of twenty people around the table there will be five but, family will be together.
Heck, a $10 gift card at Publix, Target, and Walgreens did wonders this year. We have a population of 68K beneficiaries. We normally immunize 30K or so with 10-15K getting it outside. This year, we are down in our system with 18K immunized by us and 35K outside. Our shots were delayed so they took advantage of the gift cards.
Same here. We normally get together with 20-50 and not it will be just 5-8.
Just an image I made for another thread:
Apropos. And poignant.
blackwing94
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There are many covid vaccines in development.
A phase 3 trial requires a population in the tens of thousands to determine the efficacy of a product.
A phase 3 trial also requires a population that is vulnerable to covid. (is this assumption correct?)
If the first vaccine that gets approved is used worldwide and works as promised…
How will additional vaccine phase 3 trials find a population on which to test?
Is this a winner take all race?
A phase 3 trial requires a population in the tens of thousands to determine the efficacy of a product.
A phase 3 trial also requires a population that is vulnerable to covid. (is this assumption correct?)
If the first vaccine that gets approved is used worldwide and works as promised…
How will additional vaccine phase 3 trials find a population on which to test?
Is this a winner take all race?
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It will take years to vaccinate billions of people.
Not entirely. The vaccine is not one shot one kill with lifelong immunity. I suspect we will need an annual or 2-year booster. Only time will tell.
Phase three trials need a mixture or diverse population and not just those vulnerable.
Phase 3 Trials:
Study Participants: 300 to 3,000 volunteers who have the disease or condition. The size is dependant on the type of drug or vaccine. The larger the test population, the more powerful the research is (more valid and more likely to capture all concerns). With COVID, they went with a larger population.
Length of Study: 1 to 4 years but can be expedited if there is a need or if the drug is shown to be harmless. Vaccines can be tested in less than 6 months. We do this process every year with influenza.
Purpose: Efficacy and monitoring of adverse reactions
Approximately 25-30% of drugs or vaccines move to phase 4. Phase 4 looks at the safety and prolonged efficacy. With vaccines, it is not uncommon to combine phases 3 and 4.
I hope this helps.
So I keep hearing that only about 50% of American adults get the flu vaccine annually. I also hear health experts saying that at least 70% of population will need the covid vaccine to be effective. What's the likelihood that enough Americans will take the vaccine?
I think we can get to 50%. That number will help and each person that gets it above 50% will increase the immunity of the herd. To be fully effective or above 70%, it will require a mandate. I am not sure that will happened. They are not even planning on mandating it for the military, yet.
I can see a requirement for students to acquire the vaccine eventually. I can also see a requirement for folks traveling in and out of countries. Colleges will require it.
Exactimator
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I rarely get a flu shot but I got one this year, as did the rest of my family. We got ours early in case there was a shortage. We asked the pharmacist if more people were getting shots this year and she said definitely, by a large margin.
The covid vaccine is one situation where I'm glad for the anti-vaxxers/coronavirus hoaxers. The more of them that willfully decline, the more vaccine there'll be for me and mine.
The covid vaccine is one situation where I'm glad for the anti-vaxxers/coronavirus hoaxers. The more of them that willfully decline, the more vaccine there'll be for me and mine.
Exactimator
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San Diego (where I live) has roughly the same population as Iowa. We've had a mask mandate for several months. Iowa just recently instituted one. Iowa has five times the hospitalizations and three times the deaths of San Diego.
Here's an NYT article about masks during the 1918 flue pandemic. There was some resistance then too.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/03/...e341-7a2b-eb11-9fb4-00155d43b2cd&ceid=9140112
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Unfortunately, that's not how it works.
With the communicable diseases and decaying effectiveness of prior vaccination over time, you want the widest possible vaccination application to minimize the spread of the diseases. Ideally, you want to eradicate them altogether (really hard, but has been accomplished with Polio).
https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/parents/diseases/forgot-14-diseases.html
I can't think of anything good that can come out from praising anti-vaxxers and virus deniers.
Literarily, nothing good at all.
Unless one is playing political games. Which aren't good for the country, either.
Nytrunner
Pop lugs, not drugs
Unless you're in the crowd that believes polio was decreasing naturally at about the same time the vaccine was rolling out
Vaccines have greatly improved our longevity and quality of life. No offense to anyone that thinks differently, but that nearly delusional.
We need to be prepared for the next pandemic:
https://www.mdlinx.com/article/how-...s=9z2zfcq4n5j27s5ia5ionh1akmvqjvuk9j8obgl24s8
We need to be prepared for the next pandemic:
https://www.mdlinx.com/article/how-...s=9z2zfcq4n5j27s5ia5ionh1akmvqjvuk9j8obgl24s8
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Happy Thanksgiving, well deserved, Chuck, and I hope it is a great reunion with your local family.
Still wondering, with a vaccine that is less than 100% effective (and 90-95% is pretty darn good) will we be able to pick out the 5-10% failures by lab tests (low antibody response, etc) BEFORE they manifest failure by actually getting Covid (and if we did detect failure by lab test, could we RE-vaccinate or just try try to keep them isolated?)
How are we going to choose the “routine“ booster interval, if needed? Measuring serial antibody decline levels and setting up to re-immunize at certain threshold? Do we have simian model tests for in place? (Bobo got vaccinated in May 2020, re exposed monthly, and stayed well until he got Covid 18 months later......?)
Still wondering, with a vaccine that is less than 100% effective (and 90-95% is pretty darn good) will we be able to pick out the 5-10% failures by lab tests (low antibody response, etc) BEFORE they manifest failure by actually getting Covid (and if we did detect failure by lab test, could we RE-vaccinate or just try try to keep them isolated?)
How are we going to choose the “routine“ booster interval, if needed? Measuring serial antibody decline levels and setting up to re-immunize at certain threshold? Do we have simian model tests for in place? (Bobo got vaccinated in May 2020, re exposed monthly, and stayed well until he got Covid 18 months later......?)
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NateB
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Could titers be drawn as part of routine annual physicals? I know not everyone sees their practitioner regularly, but it could catch some.
I know my position isn't "normal", my employer runs a number of tests off blood draws with my annual physical. Several years ago, they called and said I needed a booster for Rubella and Hepatitis B vaccines. Apparently, my whole cohort who were mass vaccinated for MMR in the early 90s needed boosters.
I know my position isn't "normal", my employer runs a number of tests off blood draws with my annual physical. Several years ago, they called and said I needed a booster for Rubella and Hepatitis B vaccines. Apparently, my whole cohort who were mass vaccinated for MMR in the early 90s needed boosters.
I think it is to understand what 90% means. Ninety percent does not mean that 10 percent will get the disease with the same severity. It means that there is a 90% reduction in infection and 10% will likely be less severe.
@NateB There will probably be a titer eventually. We just do not have it yet.
NateB
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I ran across this press release from St Jude where some tests with medication to treat Chron's is being used to fight the inflammation caused by Covid. https://www.stjude.org/inspire/news/st-jude-scientists-make-advance-in-covid-19.html
https://www.nih.gov/news-events/new...ial-test-immune-modulators-treatment-covid-19
It would be nice for treatment options for long term inflammation that seems to affect some people.
Our ER was studying Bamlanivimab which was recently given an EUA for people recently diagnosed with Covid in hopes of keeping them out of the hospital. Regeneron's antibody treatment was also granted an EUA. Is there any reason why patients who have received these treatments couldn't get the vaccine when it is available?
https://www.nih.gov/news-events/new...ial-test-immune-modulators-treatment-covid-19
It would be nice for treatment options for long term inflammation that seems to affect some people.
Our ER was studying Bamlanivimab which was recently given an EUA for people recently diagnosed with Covid in hopes of keeping them out of the hospital. Regeneron's antibody treatment was also granted an EUA. Is there any reason why patients who have received these treatments couldn't get the vaccine when it is available?
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