Coronavirus: What questions do you have?

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I'm glad my list is similar to yours!
- don't mix with people but if you have to
- keep your distance and also
- wear a mask as well as
- don't touch mask or face and
- wash, wash, wash your hands
Top is 60-grit, bottom is about 400-grit :-D
To quote our illustrious Saints coach and COVID survivor “Treat everyone as if they are carrying a live hand grenade”!
 
Actually, liability is ZERO!
Yep, you've read that right - most states in the US have passed liability-immunity legislation or issued executive orders granting assisted living facilities / nursing homes immunity from civil liability.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/08/nursing-home-immunity-laws/https://skillednursingnews.com/2020...-from-liability-amid-covid-19-but-rules-vary/
If you wonder why they would do that - the answer is obvious: campaign contributions to the state politicians from the nursing homes lobby.

Yet, it gets only more loathsome from there.
A number of nursing homes are billing their residents (aka hostages) the "Covid-19" surcharges:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...-passing-covid-19-costs-residents/3218380001/

I agree but it is despicable. Ultimately, there will be a lawsuit somewhere down the line and the courts will decide if the executive order is constitutional.
 
Anyone tracking the ratios of new cases vs hospitalizations vs ICU admissions vs deaths?

Possibilities for more cases but fewer admissions/ICU hits/deaths include

Lower risk patients are being less careful than high risk patients, and are suffering the consequences of increased infections but less likely to be serious

Increased testing (increased case detection of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases previously not detected or ignored. More likely to occur in low risk patients, as the higher risk patients more likely to be sick and seek medical attention and testing.)

Perhaps not politically correct, but any more data on relationship of severity to obesity? I am reading ER and Inpatient stuff, and most of the more serious cases seem to be in the more generously proportioned patients, of which we in the South have plenty.


The CDC has a database they call Provisional COVID-19 Death Counts with demographic data.
https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional...
You can download the data for a spreadsheet.

For the USA 2/1/20-6/24/20 per the CDC
Over 85 years 33.3%
Over 75 years 59.9%
Over 65 years 80.7%

CDC Provisional COVID death data by age for USA from state by state reports
2/1/20 - 6/24/20

Age..........%
<15............0.03
15-24.........0.12
25-34.........0.68
35-44.........1.72
45-54.........4.85
55-64.......11.94
65-74.......20.77
75-84.......26.61
85+..........33.29

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional...

Over 65 age group makes up 6.6% of the US work force (about 10.4 million workers.)
Over 75 age group is about 1.1% of the US work force (about 1.9 million workers.)

Workforce demographics: https://dqydj.com/workforce-by-age-ca...

See attached bar graph.

Does this mortality distribution justify closing the economy, or is there a better way to protect those most at risk?

IMG_1020.JPG
 
The CDC has a database they call Provisional COVID-19 Death Counts with demographic data.
https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional...
You can download the data for a spreadsheet.

For the USA 2/1/20-6/24/20 per the CDC
Over 85 years 33.3%
Over 75 years 59.9%
Over 65 years 80.7%

CDC Provisional COVID death data by age for USA from state by state reports
2/1/20 - 6/24/20

Age..........%
<15............0.03
15-24.........0.12
25-34.........0.68
35-44.........1.72
45-54.........4.85
55-64.......11.94
65-74.......20.77
75-84.......26.61
85+..........33.29

https://data.cdc.gov/NCHS/Provisional...

Over 65 age group makes up 6.6% of the US work force (about 10.4 million workers.)
Over 75 age group is about 1.1% of the US work force (about 1.9 million workers.)

Workforce demographics: https://dqydj.com/workforce-by-age-ca...

See attached bar graph.

Does this mortality distribution justify closing the economy, or is there a better way to protect those most at risk?

View attachment 422070
I'll note that the economy is mostly open now in most states, and that at the time we widely closed it in the March/April timeframe, there were many unknowns about the risks and spread and early on especially, the degree to which infections would turn into cases and hospitalizations/fatalities. So, I'm not trying to question the lockdown decisions in March.

At this time, I don't think we really need to lock down but we do need to focus on personal responsibility measures such as masking (for everyone) in public, minimizing high risk things (transmission in bars seems to be a big thing), and there may be select venues that are just not viable (theme parks possibly). Meanwhile there's no way you would get me to eat in a restaurant or sit in a movie theater right now. No way, no how.
 
The thing which stands out to me most among all of this hubbub is the overweening arrogance and hubris: pretension that we can "do something" to halt the spread of this disease. It's a nice political platitude, which - like most political platitudes - is completely worthless in the Real World.

Social distancing? Yeah, go look it up. It was a high school science project - not a legitimate epidemiological response.
Self-quarantine? As many doctors have asked: why are we advocating quarantine for the healthy? It's absurd and it has actually led to a severe uptick in domestic abuse, rape, and suicide which no one talks about.
Masks? Much bad information about masks, because they don't stop you from getting the disease. (Only the N-95 masks have the necessary filtration and they can't be worn for longer than two hours because they also restrict oxygen flow.) And many - especially these cloth masks which are ever-so-popular - have no scientific research indicating their effectiveness in preventing the transmission of a disease! And let's be real here: if you're sick, stay home!

Much of your assertions here are flat out wrong. I've posted a lot of scientific studies here in this forum about the benefits of simple masks in containing droplets that reduces the spread. Look through the various threads if you are interested but simple masking works, but only when enough people do it that those that are infected but unaware they are infected (presymptomatic and asymptomatic) are masked. This is the primary benefit. And even simple masks can protect the wearer, too, maybe 30% better than no mask according to multiple studies.


All of this was made abundantly clear when New York was forced to admit that 66% of their new patients had done all of these and still contracted the virus! Doh!
Yes, but these people were in contact with higher risk individuals in their homes for the most part.

I would like to suggest a different plan of action.
1. Open all businesses immediately. Encourage business owners to know the facts regarding the virus but allow them to set policies for operations according to their own needs and the needs of their customers. It should be illegal for governors and mayors to be picking which businesses can or can not open - especially based on the bad information dominating the media.
2. STOP focusing on the number of infections and concentrate on the number which really matters: hospitalizations. Why? Because it doesn't matter how many people get the disease; it matters how many people are in the hospitals being treated. For all the hype about "overwhelming the healthcare system" we haven't even come close. In fact, there have been numerous articles about how hospitals were furloughing staff - including nurses and doctors - because there was nothing for them do!
3. STOP panicking over hypotheticals. So far, all the projections have been horribly wrong (two million dead in the US...?). Let's go with an objective view of the data . The reality is that schools will be just fine opening up in the fall (and never should have been closed in the first place). Students are the LEAST likely of any age group to end up in the hospital. A "second wave"? We're seeing an uptick in infections now, but not hospitalizations. (This also includes the hypotheticals involving vaccines in the next six months.)
4. Treat this virus like chicken pox. Chicken pox in the young is trivial with an infinitesimal number experiencing hospitalization as a result. Yet those who do not build up an immunity while young (and this can unfortunately include those who get the chicken pox vaccine) and get it while 60+ experience the far more severe form: ricketts. Rickets is painful and can be life-threatening in the elderly.

This is a recipe for disaster. Also google Rickets, which is a vitamin D deficiency. You probably meant Shingles, which is caused by a chicken pox virus.

The similarities are obvious. Because the population endangered by COVID-19 is primarily the elderly - especially those in nursing homes or with preexisting conditions - the only way to protect those people is for everyone else to be immune so they aren't carrying it in - the so-called "herd immunity" theory. Lacking a vaccine, the best way to do this is to encourage those who are least likely to end up in the hospital to get the disease and get it over with. That's just about anyone under 30 and those who have a healthy immune system. (Side note, but that means that shutting down bars - where mostly 20-somethings congregate - and fitness clubs is exactly the WRONG thing to do.)
IMO.

Yeah. So, take everyone in a risk group: elderly, the obese, anyone with a significant underlying medical condition, and put them on an island somewhere until this blows over? I'm 52 and by NIH definition obese, my wife is a cancer survivor and works in health care. What do we do with our two kids while we're on the island?

The thing to do is continue distancing and have everyone mask and take reasonable precautions. It works all over the world where it is employed by a populace that works together.
 
The thing which stands out to me most among all of this hubbub is the overweening arrogance and hubris: pretension that we can "do something" to halt the spread of this disease. It's a nice political platitude, which - like most political platitudes - is completely worthless in the Real World.

Social distancing? Yeah, go look it up. It was a high school science project - not a legitimate epidemiological response.
Self-quarantine? As many doctors have asked: why are we advocating quarantine for the healthy? It's absurd and it has actually led to a severe uptick in domestic abuse, rape, and suicide which no one talks about.
Masks? Much bad information about masks, because they don't stop you from getting the disease. (Only the N-95 masks have the necessary filtration and they can't be worn for longer than two hours because they also restrict oxygen flow.) And many - especially these cloth masks which are ever-so-popular - have no scientific research indicating their effectiveness in preventing the transmission of a disease! And let's be real here: if you're sick, stay home!

All of this was made abundantly clear when New York was forced to admit that 66% of their new patients had done all of these and still contracted the virus! Doh!

I would like to suggest a different plan of action.
1. Open all businesses immediately. Encourage business owners to know the facts regarding the virus but allow them to set policies for operations according to their own needs and the needs of their customers. It should be illegal for governors and mayors to be picking which businesses can or can not open - especially based on the bad information dominating the media.
2. STOP focusing on the number of infections and concentrate on the number which really matters: hospitalizations. Why? Because it doesn't matter how many people get the disease; it matters how many people are in the hospitals being treated. For all the hype about "overwhelming the healthcare system" we haven't even come close. In fact, there have been numerous articles about how hospitals were furloughing staff - including nurses and doctors - because there was nothing for them do!
3. STOP panicking over hypotheticals. So far, all the projections have been horribly wrong (two million dead in the US...?). Let's go with an objective view of the data . The reality is that schools will be just fine opening up in the fall (and never should have been closed in the first place). Students are the LEAST likely of any age group to end up in the hospital. A "second wave"? We're seeing an uptick in infections now, but not hospitalizations. (This also includes the hypotheticals involving vaccines in the next six months.)
4. Treat this virus like chicken pox. Chicken pox in the young is trivial with an infinitesimal number experiencing hospitalization as a result. Yet those who do not build up an immunity while young (and this can unfortunately include those who get the chicken pox vaccine) and get it while 60+ experience the far more severe form: ricketts. Rickets is painful and can be life-threatening in the elderly.

The similarities are obvious. Because the population endangered by COVID-19 is primarily the elderly - especially those in nursing homes or with preexisting conditions - the only way to protect those people is for everyone else to be immune so they aren't carrying it in - the so-called "herd immunity" theory. Lacking a vaccine, the best way to do this is to encourage those who are least likely to end up in the hospital to get the disease and get it over with. That's just about anyone under 30 and those who have a healthy immune system. (Side note, but that means that shutting down bars - where mostly 20-somethings congregate - and fitness clubs is exactly the WRONG thing to do.)
IMO.
I mean this with the greatest respect, but in your very first paragraph you entirely miss the point. I'm not aware of any medical professional who thinks we can -stop- it, only slow it until a vaccine and/or treatment regimen can pass trials and scale up. And we -do- vaccinate kids against chicken pox now because it -does- cause life-altering complications at a non-zero rate.
 
Woops. I meant 'shingles' instead of 'ricketts" regarding smallpox.


Going forward.
One additional key point was shown in the NYC data .
(See https://www.worldometers.info/coronav... )

My observations:
It displays that of the 15,230 deaths reported as having COVID at the time of death,
only 0.7% of those deaths were in people that had no underlying medical conditions.

So using both of the two vulnerabilities (age and medical conditions) as guides, the employers can take steps to protect those over 65 and those under 65 with medical conditions that make them vulnerable.
I imagine that CNN, Yahoo, and MSN will respond with lawsuits about medical prejudice by employers - and as usual, the media will be irrational fools who cause death and destruction.
Instead, they should take the rational approach of warning people about who is most vulnerable and advising the vulnerable as customers of businesses to take steps to protect themselves and how to limit their personal exposure.
IE, educate, not dominate. We start throwing out the Constitution to justify control, we may as well end right now this Experiment called Constitutional Republic.
 
Woops. I meant 'shingles' instead of 'ricketts" regarding smallpox.


Going forward.
One additional key point was shown in the NYC data .
(See https://www.worldometers.info/coronav... )

My observations:
It displays that of the 15,230 deaths reported as having COVID at the time of death,
only 0.7% of those deaths were in people that had no underlying medical conditions.

So using both of the two vulnerabilities (age and medical conditions) as guides, the employers can take steps to protect those over 65 and those under 65 with medical conditions that make them vulnerable.
I imagine that CNN, Yahoo, and MSN will respond with lawsuits about medical prejudice by employers - and as usual, the media will be irrational fools who cause death and destruction.
Instead, they should take the rational approach of warning people about who is most vulnerable and advising the vulnerable as customers of businesses to take steps to protect themselves and how to limit their personal exposure.
IE, educate, not dominate. We start throwing out the Constitution to justify control, we may as well end right now this Experiment called Constitutional Republic.
Even if I agreed with your logic, you are missing the point that most elderly and those with medical conditions are embedded with their families. There's no safe island for them to go to. If we do it your way we will see the 2M dead Americans soon.
 
FWIW. i wear a mask (not a piece of colorful cloth that looks cool) whenever I go into a high risk area. And when I go to a privately or publically owned that asks that masks be worn, I comply.
When I go out into the pasture to round up cattle with a group of fellow cowboys, we don't wear masks, even if a governor tells us we should.
Common sense, folks...
 
If I lived with very elderly Type A blood types who had COPD/etc, I would be very cautious. I did not say otherwise.
My observations are saying that a one size fits all rule is not the answer. The answer is, as I said, educate, and free choice. I did not say you can be reckless.
Thats what Darwinism answered decades ago..
 
This is a big one, the mask under the nose. Or pulling the mask down to speak to someone. Geez, what heck!?
FWIW. i wear a mask (not a piece of colorful cloth that looks cool) whenever I go into a high risk area. And when I go to a privately or publically owned that asks that masks be worn, I comply.
When I go out into the pasture to round up cattle with a group of fellow cowboys, we don't wear masks, even if a governor tells us we should.
Common sense, folks...

I agree, but it does depend on the number of cowboys and how far they have to travel. If they have to stay in hotels or use restaurants along the way, we need to ask how essential is the cowboy activity.
 
In regards to my blood type entry.
One article, but not an elaborate study or conclusions
https://www.news-medical.net/news/202...
and https://www.prevention.com/health/a32...
"A growing body of research is discovering a potential link between a person’s blood type and their COVID-19 risk. The latest stems via preliminary data from the at-home genetic test kit company 23andMe.
The company shared in a blog post this week that preliminary results from its ongoing genetic study of COVID-19—which currently has more than 750,000 participants—“suggest that O blood type appears to be protective.” Specifically, people with type O blood were up to 18% less likely to test positive for COVID-19 than those of other blood types."

It has been reported that up to 60 percent of the planets blood type is primarily O.

Has anyone done any research on this?

The shame of it is that Blood type is rarely accounted for in statistics. Most people don't even know their blood type and some doctors have no clue either. I would think one would list All individually physiological statistics, age, weight, blood type, RH factor, secretor status, etc, etc.

Being 65 and wanting to get the Flu (plus my wife is a research PharmD) I have referenced this site. (https://rightforyourtype.com). The Doc, (D'Adamo), every flu season gives us the low down on who (bloodtype) is on that years hit list. Many times it's between A's and O's with B's and AB's skewed one way or the other for vulnerability. This year, I must of missed or perhaps he didn't get into the covid thing...he is probably trying to make sense of all the bull out there like the rest of us....Interesting to note. Dr D'Adamo is an A.
Another interesting factoid about the clotting factor of A versus O: A has the thickest blood and O the thinnest/ acids in the stomach: As the least, Os the most. Although, through antiquity, we've always gotten along, we are the first 2 blood types but biologically, for all intent and purpose...we are opposites. Vegetarians versus Red Meat eaters. (leaving the "garden" necessitated a digestive change...hence: Blood type 0).

This year, it seems the majority of us lucked out.
blood type a is about 20% of the population.
 
Does this mortality distribution justify closing the economy, or is there a better way to protect those most at risk?


As soon as you put a $ sign against a number of deaths, you are in murky waters. I don’t know the answer, I don’t know if anyone does.

If all that matter is economics, what you want is what no one is willing to say, a virus that has 100% mortality and 100% penetrative for those over 65, maybe 55. You get this, you just eliminated the federal deficit. Social Security and Medicare (with a few exceptions) drop to zero. They soon start going up again, but momentarily it’s a financial boon. You drastically drop the rolls of military and civilian retirees. Yes, you loose a lot of experienced workers, but from a strictly dollar sign perspective it’s a win. Think “Logan’s Run.” Emphasize I think this is absolutely immoral (and for the record, I fall into that range somewhere!). but if all that matters is economics, you devote all your resources toward maintaining the food chain (from sowing the seeds to grocery check out, including trucking, packing, oil and gas, and maintenance), protecting the country from invasion, and unfortunately some sort of ruling governmental authority to hold it together.

Finding the balance is tough. We are very critical of our leaders (perhaps for good reasons), but clearly on this forum there is no clear consensus. I may or may not talk a good line, but I am glad I am not in charge, even as I am not impressed by those who ARE.
 
In regards to my blood type entry.
One article, but not an elaborate study or conclusions
https://www.news-medical.net/news/202...
and https://www.prevention.com/health/a32...
"A growing body of research is discovering a potential link between a person’s blood type and their COVID-19 risk. The latest stems via preliminary data from the at-home genetic test kit company 23andMe.
The company shared in a blog post this week that preliminary results from its ongoing genetic study of COVID-19—which currently has more than 750,000 participants—“suggest that O blood type appears to be protective.” Specifically, people with type O blood were up to 18% less likely to test positive for COVID-19 than those of other blood types."

It has been reported that up to 60 percent of the planets blood type is primarily O.

Has anyone done any research on this?

The shame of it is that Blood type is rarely accounted for in statistics. Most people don't even know their blood type and some doctors have no clue either. I would think one would list All individually physiological statistics, age, weight, blood type, RH factor, secretor status, etc, etc.

Being 65 and wanting to get the Flu (plus my wife is a research PharmD) I have referenced this site. (https://rightforyourtype.com). The Doc, (D'Adamo), every flu season gives us the low down on who (bloodtype) is on that years hit list. Many times it's between A's and O's with B's and AB's skewed one way or the other for vulnerability. This year, I must of missed or perhaps he didn't get into the covid thing...he is probably trying to make sense of all the bull out there like the rest of us....Interesting to note. Dr D'Adamo is an A.
Another interesting factoid about the clotting factor of A versus O: A has the thickest blood and O the thinnest/ acids in the stomach: As the least, Os the most. Although, through antiquity, we've always gotten along, we are the first 2 blood types but biologically, for all intent and purpose...we are opposites. Vegetarians versus Red Meat eaters. (leaving the "garden" necessitated a digestive change...hence: Blood type 0).

This year, it seems the majority of us lucked out.
blood type a is about 20% of the population.
Well crap, I thought when I got an A+ on my blood type, I scored well. Next you’re gonna tell me studying for my urine test didn’t help either.
 
Last edited:
Woops. I meant 'shingles' instead of 'ricketts" regarding smallpox.


Going forward.
One additional key point was shown in the NYC data .
(See https://www.worldometers.info/coronav... )

My observations:
It displays that of the 15,230 deaths reported as having COVID at the time of death,
only 0.7% of those deaths were in people that had no underlying medical conditions.

So using both of the two vulnerabilities (age and medical conditions) as guides, the employers can take steps to protect those over 65 and those under 65 with medical conditions that make them vulnerable.
I imagine that CNN, Yahoo, and MSN will respond with lawsuits about medical prejudice by employers - and as usual, the media will be irrational fools who cause death and destruction.
Instead, they should take the rational approach of warning people about who is most vulnerable and advising the vulnerable as customers of businesses to take steps to protect themselves and how to limit their personal exposure.
IE, educate, not dominate. We start throwing out the Constitution to justify control, we may as well end right now this Experiment called Constitutional Republic.

34 million Americans have diabetes, one of the primary underlying medical conditions that we're concerned about with COVID. There's some overlap there with the 100 million obese Americans, the other big one. When 1/3 of the country has the underlying medical condition, you can't isolate them. You can't isolate old people effectively either. My mother-in-law lives in an independent living apartment. The staff there are almost all under 40. Sure, they get checked for a fever twice a shift, but they can still spread the virus before they show a fever. If one of the staff gets sick, they'll spread it to the residents pretty fast.

Also, your inital premise about young people being safe isn't really accurate either. The big outbreaks now in FL and TX are among younger people, and hospitalizations are going up rapidly in many places. The biggest hospital in Houston is full, for example. There are about 90 million Americans between 20 and 40. If they all get infected and 0.1% die, that's 90K deaths. Those who survive can also see long-term consequences in big and small ways, from liver damage to incontinence.
 
The thing which stands out to me most among all of this hubbub is the overweening arrogance and hubris: pretension that we can "do something" to halt the spread of this disease. It's a nice political platitude, which - like most political platitudes - is completely worthless in the Real World.

Other countries have managed to get it under control, and we could do it too by doing the things they have done.

After those other countries went through the difficult process of getting it under control, they have been able to reopen to a greater degree than we have and still maintain control.
 
I'm not aware of any medical professional who thinks we can -stop- it, only slow it until a vaccine and/or treatment regimen can pass trials and scale up.

Some countries actually have “stopped” it. Not 100% stopped, but close enough that it’s effectively stopped. They have reduced the numbers low enough that they can contact trace every case, isolate all potential contacts until they can be cleared through quarantine and testing, and use testing to monitor the affected community.

They are at the point of putting out spot fires, which is pretty easy to do. We are at the point of trying to contain a raging, runaway wildfire, and only putting in a halfhearted effort.
 
But only a small percentage of those patients are Covid cases.

I didn't fact check it, but my wife's aunt who lives in Houston said that the area's ICU beds are full and 30% of those cases are Covid with 70% being something else.

30% capacity for 1 disease is a significant amount. Covid cases also take a while for people to get over, so that bed is being used longer than other diseases. 30% will grow to 40 and so on as more people get admitted than discharged.
 
I didn't fact check it, but my wife's aunt who lives in Houston said that the area's ICU beds are full and 30% of those cases are Covid with 70% being something else..

People should really consider rescheduling their heart attacks, strokes, and car accidents. We need those beds for COVID patients!

The reality is that ICU capacity is very expensive, so there is a financial disincentive to have more ICU beds than you usually need, and that’s why there isn’t a lot of surge capacity. There really isn’t a lot of room for COVID patients, and the hospitals in parts of Texas, Florida, and Arizona will probably max out in the next week or two.
 
I agree, but it does depend on the number of cowboys and how far they have to travel. If they have to stay in hotels or use restaurants along the way, we need to ask how essential is the cowboy activity.

I think his cowboys ride horses or maybe 4 wheelers. 4 wheelers can help with herding but nothing beats a good roping horse. I doubt if they stay in hotels or use restaurants. Most likely if it’s not day work only they sleep on the ground or in tents and eat from a chuck wagon or truck.

My father has a cousin in Montana and they run cattle like they did in the 1800’s except they do use 4 wheelers as an adjunct to the horses. Sleep on the ground, drink from a mountain stream, poop in a hole and have a real chuck wagon. Carry six guns too but that’s mainly for rattlesnakes. Horses will stop in their tracks if they sense one. I couldn’t believe him when he told me but he was dead serious. Perfect for someone trained in cowboy work and wants to live in the past!:) Oh, it’s likely easy to keep way more social distancing than needed out of the range and eschew a mask safely. I’ll have to see if I can find a Montana Covid map out of curiosity.
Sorry for being off-topic but to hear that classic cowboy life still exists was eye opening to me. Kurt
 
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