Coronavirus: What questions do you have?

[BDB]

If anyone is wondering how Chuck could have become infected after taking the vaccine, here is the data from the Pfizer-BioNTech clinical trial. Notice how a patient who receives the vaccine is equally susceptible to infection as someone who received a placebo until ~11 days after receiving the vaccine. Stay vigilant and wear a mask, everyone.

 

[cwbullet]

If anyone is wondering how Chuck could have become infected after taking the vaccine, here is the data from the Pfizer-BioNTech clinical trial. Notice how a patient who receives the vaccine is equally susceptible to infection as someone who received a placebo until ~11 days after receiving the vaccine. Stay vigilant and wear a mask, everyone.

View attachment 445658

This data is true, but you can still be infected even if you get the vaccine. The vaccine is not designed to necessarily reduce infections. The goal is to reduce serious infections. The vaccines currently available reduce serious infections by 90% or more and they may also reduce the number of infections.

 

[Nytrunner]

Do you have colleagues that know more of discussion of differences between vaccine-antibody stimulation vs natural T-cell immune response?

In another thread on the CV sub-forum, a user posted a video from a German presentation taking the position that the vaccine had the potential risk of producing more antibodies earlier and shortcutting the more permanent development of T-cells/lymphocytes resulting in an immune response weaker than could be obained by catching and dealing with the virus w/o the vaccine (assuming the patient survives that is)

It all sounded very thorough and well put together, but I'm an engineer not a doctor and would appreciate more medical input

 

[Cl(VII)]

Do you have colleagues that know more of discussion of differences between vaccine-antibody stimulation vs natural T-cell immune response?

In another thread on the CV sub-forum, a user posted a video from a German presentation taking the position that the vaccine had the potential risk of producing more antibodies earlier and shortcutting the more permanent development of T-cells/lymphocytes resulting in an immune response weaker than could be obained by catching and dealing with the virus w/o the vaccine (assuming the patient survives that is)

It all sounded very thorough and well put together, but I'm an engineer not a doctor and would appreciate more medical input

I remember in the the early trials for Moderna and Pfizer they saw robust T-cell response. There were some differences in the balance between CD4+ and CD8+ T-cell responses, with the Pfizer vaccine leading to a higher CD8+ T-cell response than the Moderna vaccine. To your point, there was virtually no difference in the Tcell response to the Pfizer vaccine across dose groups from 1 microgram to 50 microgram, and the circulating T-cells were higher in these treatment groups than in convalescent plasma. Therefore, I don't think that a stunted T-cell response is going to be a problem, and I don;t know of any clinical data that seriously points that way. None of these observations are a guarantee that the response will be durable for at least as long as infection response (probably longer), but they certainly point that way.

The only caveat I will bring up is that the Tcell responses I mention are in response to the spike protein. The Tcells from convalescent plasma have some degree of "non-spike directed" reactivity, so you would expect their recognition of COVID to be a bit "broader" than those derived from the vaccine.

None of this is something I'm personally worried about as I assume we will be needing a tweaked booster every few years anyway...how often will probably depend more on the mutation rate (and thereby global infection rate) than our falling T-cell responses...at least until you reach an age where your immune system starts seriously slipping, and then you are probably in for more boosters (or maybe just higher doses and/or more adjuvant).

 

[Nytrunner]

Thanks! Your background is perfect here

I do recall that the video was mentioning decreases in production of the broader non-spike T-cells.
*and now I can't view that video to refresh my memory of what their conclusion/purpose was. Apparently the youtube account is now closed...... Maybe there's my answer

**edit: Found it again, it was re-uploaded by another account: His conclusion is that the risk/benefit is infinite for non immune-compromised individuals under the age of 65 because there is no benefit for healthy people to get the vaccine

 

[cwbullet]

I remember in the the early trials for Moderna and Pfizer they saw robust T-cell response. There were some differences in the balance between CD4+ and CD8+ T-cell responses, with the Pfizer vaccine leading to a higher CD8+ T-cell response than the Moderna vaccine. To your point, there was virtually no difference in the Tcell response to the Pfizer vaccine across dose groups from 1 microgram to 50 microgram, and the circulating T-cells were higher in these treatment groups than in convalescent plasma. Therefore, I don't think that a stunted T-cell response is going to be a problem, and I don;t know of any clinical data that seriously points that way. None of these observations are a guarantee that the response will be durable for at least as long as infection response (probably longer), but they certainly point that way.

The only caveat I will bring up is that the Tcell responses I mention are in response to the spike protein. The Tcells from convalescent plasma have some degree of "non-spike directed" reactivity, so you would expect their recognition of COVID to be a bit "broader" than those derived from the vaccine.

None of this is something I'm personally worried about as I assume we will be needing a tweaked booster every few years anyway...how often will probably depend more on the mutation rate (and thereby global infection rate) than our falling T-cell responses...at least until you reach an age where your immune system starts seriously slipping, and then you are probably in for more boosters (or maybe just higher doses and/or more adjuvant).

This statement is consistent with the research I have reviewed. I think the video on Youtube is makes sense, but is not support by research. I think we will get fairly longterm immunity from the vaccine, but it may require a 1-3 year booster.

 

[Cl(VII)]

**edit: Found it again, it was re-uploaded by another account: His conclusion is that the risk/benefit is infinite for non immune-compromised individuals under the age of 65 because there is no benefit for healthy people to get the vaccine

Good, then I won't be in line behind him to get a vaccine. In other words, I think he has his numerator and denominator reversed in that equation. I personally view it as reward/risk >>1 (but not infinity)

 

[Marc_G]

If anyone is wondering how Chuck could have become infected after taking the vaccine, here is the data from the Pfizer-BioNTech clinical trial. Notice how a patient who receives the vaccine is equally susceptible to infection as someone who received a placebo until ~11 days after receiving the vaccine. Stay vigilant and wear a mask, everyone.

View attachment 445658

For clarity, is this chart referencing days after the first dose, or days after the second dose? I presume it is first dose but would prefer to know for sure.

If first dose, then this is compelling evidence that getting a lot of people vaccinated with first shot may be more appropriate than timely administration of the second dose three weeks in, though I say this speculatively and hold fast to my position of following the approved dosing guidelines unless further guidance is issued by authorities with access to the right data.

 

[Cl(VII)]

For clarity, is this chart referencing days after the first dose, or days after the second dose? I presume it is first dose but would prefer to know for sure.

If first dose, then this is compelling evidence that getting a lot of people vaccinated with first shot may be more appropriate than timely administration of the second dose three weeks in, though I say this speculatively and hold fast to my position of following the approved dosing guidelines unless further guidance is issued by authorities with access to the right data.

It would have to be first dose as they observed a ~50-60% (don't remember exactly) reduction in observed cases after 1 dose (presumably as measured during the window between doses, not that folks only got 1 dose).

 

[boatgeek]

For clarity, is this chart referencing days after the first dose, or days after the second dose? I presume it is first dose but would prefer to know for sure.

If first dose, then this is compelling evidence that getting a lot of people vaccinated with first shot may be more appropriate than timely administration of the second dose three weeks in, though I say this speculatively and hold fast to my position of following the approved dosing guidelines unless further guidance is issued by authorities with access to the right data.

The chart X-axis is labeled Days after Dose 1.

 

[Marc_G]

The chart X-axis is labeled Days after Dose 1.

D'oh!

 

[boatgeek]

D'oh!

Been there, done that, have a drawer full of T-shirts.

 

[cwbullet]

We are over 7000 today in GA. Nearly every hospital is depleted of ICU beds.

 

[cwbullet]

Ok. GA has reached 10,300 day with an aver over 6400. 80 deaths. Crap this is getting scary.

 

[BABAR]

Couple of glimmers of good news.

Initial reports suggest the current vaccines are expected to be effective against the U.K. and South Africa variants.

Also, acquired immunity for those who have been infected and recovered seems to be durable so far.

Dark days ahead, but not all the news is bad.

Hope you are fully recovered soon.

 

[dhbarr]

Should start to come off-peak Monday, so that's something anyway.

 

[cwbullet]

Should start to come off-peak Monday, so that's something anyway.

Off-peak Monday?

 

[dhbarr]

Off-peak Monday?

Just guessing based on dips that have come after previous holidays. Like, it should stop getting as bad as fast.

 

[cwbullet]

Just guessing based on dips that have come after previous holidays. Like, it should stop getting as bad as fast.

In GA, Mondays are always low but Tuesday and Wednesday quickly catch up.

 

[NOLA_BAR]

In GA, Mondays are always low but Tuesday and Wednesday quickly catch up.

Same here. Monday is lowest of the week. Tuesday-Thursday are significantly higher, then a slight Friday drop. No report on Saturday, then a double report on Sunday. All indicators are still increasing; cases, hospital, positivity. Going to be a long January.

 

[BDB]

This data is true, but you can still be infected even if you get the vaccine. The vaccine is not designed to necessarily reduce infections. The goal is to reduce serious infections. The vaccines currently available reduce serious infections by 90% or more and they may also reduce the number of infections.

Good catch. I should have said that the data show the trial participants who became ill with COVID, not those who were infected. All the more reasons to stay vigilant.

I hope you are feeling better, Chuck.

 

[cwbullet]

Update: I am back to 75% recovery. It will take a month to get back to 100% and will take quite a bit of activity. I am having terrible amount of Bronchospasm if I go out in the cold air. I have never had Asthma but if this is similar, I feel for them.

 

[cwbullet]

I want to post a little national update:

Above is the highest risk locations. I would add New York to that list after yesterday. Georgia is quickly catching up. One more spike like yesterday and we can add them as Number 7. Georgia would technically bump Tennessee off the list after yesterdays numbers.



Each of the top 11 states are increasing in COVID numbers. Within 2 weeks, all of these states will be without an empty ICU bed if the projections are correct. Based on the models, NY and NC appear to have not complied with suggestion to not have group gatherings over the holidays. CA and GA for the most part did.

I think we are in for a long next two weeks just as I come off Home Isolation from COVID myself. I do not know how I caught it. No one in my circle came up positive despite 100% being tested and contact traced. This really is a quandary.

 

[cbwho]

Interesting study:

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.27.20161976v2
If you were vaccinated with something within the last few years, you may have partial protection against covid.

 

[cwbullet]

I want to post a little national update:
View attachment 445856
Above is the highest risk locations. I would add New York to that list after yesterday. Georgia is quickly catching up. One more spike like yesterday and we can add them as Number 7. Georgia would technically bump Tennessee off the list after yesterdays numbers.

View attachment 445857

Each of the top 11 states are increasing in COVID numbers. Within 2 weeks, all of these states will be without an empty ICU bed if the projections are correct. Based on the models, NY and NC appear to have not complied with suggestion to not have group gatherings over the holidays. CA and GA for the most part did.

I think we are in for a long next two weeks just as I come off Home Isolation from COVID myself. I do not know how I caught it. No one in my circle came up positive despite 100% being tested and contact traced. This really is a quandary.

In one how they updated the data:



It looks like the top eleven stayed the same, but they moved some data around.

 

[NateB]

I do not know how I caught it. No one in my circle came up positive despite 100% being tested and contact traced. This really is a quandary.

Could it be from passing contacts with other employees or visitors? Some articles have suggested that repeated small contacts, even less than 15 mins can be a risk. My wife is almost positive she got it after a few conversations with a supervisor. My wife had a cloth mask on, but the supervisor.

 

[cwbullet]

China continues to report ridiculous COVID Numbers. China still claims only 87,331 Chinese coronavirus infections and 4,634 fatalities in total. Just in case you have not been following, that is the same number reported in Marche so they have not has a single death or infection since March. They are about as transparent as a lead apron.

My estimates would say China had over 42 million infections and 700K+ deaths based on conservative estimates. One city, Wunan, reportedly had 480K infection in 3 months. That is severe under reporting. These numbers are based on antibody testing in Wunan and death rates in the US. I am 100% certain their death rates would be higher.

My undergrad was heavy in mathematics and at one time I planed to be a mathematician or upper level math teacher. I have been building a model. Based on various data sources, I suspect China has about 1-10 million deaths. That depends on how much they have avoided intubation like the western world.

 

[cwbullet]

Could it be from passing contacts with other employees or visitors? Some articles have suggested that repeated small contacts, even less than 15 mins can be a risk. My wife is almost positive she got it after a few conversations with a supervisor. My wife had a cloth mask on, but the supervisor.

I suspect I caught it from my hours that I spent in our COVID testing operations on Monday. I know I would have passed to my wife when I kissed her goodbye on Sunday to drive back.

 

[BABAR]

China continues to report ridiculous COVID Numbers..... They are about as transparent as a lead apron.

You give them too much credit. I wear a lead apron and some photons still get through.

Getting back to questions, on the other forum, someone mentioned that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines were designed to prevent symptomatic infections, not asymptomatic ones.

Not sure that’s true, I think most or all NON-live vaccines are DESIGNED to prevent ANY infections. So far with testing (and understanding that Warp Speed and other programs have been surprisingly successful), the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines have only been PROVEN to be effective against SYMPTOMATIC infections, perhaps because we haven’t been LOOKING for ASYMPTOMATIC infections (you can only prod a guinea pig so far, maybe they haven’t done regular post vaccination swabs on enough patients yet.)

So when will we KNOW how successful vaccination is in preventing ASYMPTOMATIC infections? Looks like vaccinated people will still need to be wearing masks indefinitely, both because the vaccine is still 95% effective (or perhaps more aptly put, 5% INEFFECTIVE) and because if it doesn’t prevent asymptomatic infections, if you get it it won’t hurt you but YOU can hurt those in your household.

 

[cwbullet]

You give them too much credit. I wear a lead apron and some photons still get through.

Getting back to questions, on the other forum, someone mentioned that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines were designed to prevent symptomatic infections, not asymptomatic ones.

Not sure that’s true, I think most or all NON-live vaccines are DESIGNED to prevent ANY infections. So far with testing (and understanding that Warp Speed and other programs have been surprisingly successful), the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines have only been PROVEN to be effective against SYMPTOMATIC infections, perhaps because we haven’t been LOOKING for ASYMPTOMATIC infections (you can only prod a guinea pig so far, maybe they haven’t done regular post vaccination swabs on enough patients yet.)

So when will we KNOW how successful vaccination is in preventing ASYMPTOMATIC infections? Looks like vaccinated people will still need to be wearing masks indefinitely, both because the vaccine is still 95% effective (or perhaps more aptly put, 5% INEFFECTIVE) and because if it doesn’t prevent asymptomatic infections, if you get it it won’t hurt you but YOU can hurt those in your household.

The goal of preventing ANY infections is a pipe dreams and unrealistic. We take a vaccine for FLU every year but we still have infections. Does that mean it is not worth getting the FLU Vax? Absolutely not. The goal of vaccination is to trigger an immune response to fight the virus when infected sooner and prevent serious infections. It is not to prevent all infections. Nearly every expert says the vaccine will reduce symptomatic infections and serious infections but that is is unlike to prevent all infections. We will know it has been successful when we stop seeing new infection (symptomatic). People who are asymptomatic are unlike to get tested unless they are a close contact of a symptomatic infection.

We are looking asympomatic infections through close contact testing and surveillance. Nearly 1/3 of new infection are found this way.