Coronavirus Outbreak

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Coronavirus Alert: New Data of Ro 4.1 = Massive Contagion Risk; Same OVERALL (not just hospitalized) Fatality Rate as SARS (from latest Chinese study not yet peer-reviewed)



Good news from the study: extreme PRO-ACTIVE measures like China is doing, total travel bans and city-wide quarantines, should work to reduce Ro to just 1.
 
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CDC Quarantines 195 Americans Evacuated From Wuhan

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/uk-confirms-first-cases-coronavirus-countries-ignore-who

Update (1315ET): In a historic move, the CDC has issued an official federal quarantine order for the Americans who returned to Alaska then California, on a chartered Boeing jet. The 195 passengers were mostly diplomats and other professionals living in Wuhan. The quarantine order will keep them isolated for 2 weeks - the same length of time that evacuees in the UK will face.

CDC SAYS REPATRIATED AMERICANS ARE UNDER FEDERAL QUARANTINE
QUARANTINE ORDER IS THE FIRST IN THE U.S. IN 50 YEARS
CDC OFFICIAL: VIRUS CONTINUES TO SPREAD RAPIDLY IN CHINA

Its the first time such an order has been issued in 50 years. The CDC also warned that the virus continues to spread rapidly in China, appearing to contradict their international partners at the WHO.

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"The Lancet" 31 Jan 2020 tweet:

https://twitter.com/TheLancet/status/1223258649822474241

This new modelling study estimates 75,800 individuals in the Chinese city of Wuhan may have been infected with 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) as of January 25, 2020 - but authors caution that the true size of the epidemic remains unclear.

https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736(20)30260-9

Their model used an Ro = 2.68 while latest not peer-reviewed study from China claims its 4.1, a HUGE difference which would grossly underestimate the number of cases.
 
31 Jan 2020 - India prohibits export of personal protection equipment

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Current risk in US is still low, but what they're doing indicates the great potential risk.

Confirmation of asymptomatic spread, an Ro of 4.1 according to the latest Chinese data (not yet peer reviewed or confirmed elsewhere, obviously due to inadequate examples outside of China), and an overall fatality rate similar to SARS of 6.7% (11% of hospitalized patients according to another Chinese study) with an apparently much greater transmissibility that SARS is really bad news.

From the briefing so far: asymptomatic transmission now confirmed by German study. Public health emergency declared in US. Proactive measures to be implemented starting Sunday, 2 Feb 2020 - entry health screenings and possibly quarantines for US citizens coming from China - enforced quarantines of 14 days on US citizens returning from Wuhan (already in effect for 195 US citizens in chartered jet from Wuhan) - self-enforced quarantines of others - total ban on entry of foreign nationals who have travelled in China within the last 14 days - all airliners with anyone coming from China will be funneled to 7 US airports for health inspections - accuracy of diagnostic test kit is unknown and "not even close" to 100%.

Press Briefing with Members of the President's Coronavirus Task Force (still live)

 
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Went out to get groceries yesterday... Crickets... You could imagine hearing them... The roads were practically empty, the few stores I visited were either empty, or had very few customers. I met a coworker friend for a meal (at one of our regular haunts), the gate was down. So I texted the owner, and she opened up for us. The restaurant was closed otherwise. They made us our meal, and left us alone for the most part. Went to the mall for him to catch a taxi, and noticed that the mall's hours are now 11 AM to 6 PM. Everything was quiet. The cultural center is next door to the mall, and you regularly hear people performing music, or singing (some good, some that make your ears want to bleed)... Completely quiet. It's like Yantai is holding its collective breath.

The leading theory is that we will be shut down for a month... Figure 2 weeks for the incubation period for those who have already been exposed to manifest themselves, and then two weeks for those who were exposed by them. It's likely going to be a quiet month for us. The school is tinkering with the idea of doing online classes in the meantime. There's not a lot of confidence in that working (teaching up to 20 4-5 year-old kids over the internet doesn't sound like it's going to work)... Then there's the classes that have the more advanced kids (going up to 16-17 year-olds). Fun! NOT!!!
 
Based upon "very early and limited data in this outbreak, but similar trend" with past outbreaks:

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I've got to admit, the whole Coronavirus thing has been kind of fascinating to watch from my perspective. I have been somewhat on the front lines of the virus for the past several days one could say. My employer, Kalitta Air, is the airline that is flying the US Department of State evacuation flights, and in the past week, I have personally made two flights to China carrying medical supplies to Wuxi for shipment into Wuhan. Its been interesting reading on the various forums and facebook about people freaking out about the passengers on the evacuation flight, but they seem to disregard, or not care, about the passengers that are coming in daily from Beijing, Shanghai, and other Chinese cities who are just as at risk as those on that flight. I have seen first hand the precautions taken on that flight, as well as the upcoming ones, and they are extraordinary. I also have several coworkers who are making the flights into the "hot zone" if you will, and they all have mixed feelings about the virus, but are taking it seriously.

I guess i have been rambling for a few sentences...
 
K'Tesh said:
Went out to get groceries yesterday... Crickets... You could imagine hearing them... The roads were practically empty, the few stores I visited were either empty, or had very few customers. I met a coworker friend for a meal (at one of our regular haunts), the gate was down. So I texted the owner, and she opened up for us. The restaurant was closed otherwise. They made us our meal, and left us alone for the most part. Went to the mall for him to catch a taxi, and noticed that the mall's hours are now 11 AM to 6 PM. Everything was quiet. The cultural center is next door to the mall, and you regularly hear people performing music, or singing (some good, some that make your ears want to bleed)... Completely quiet. It's like Yantai is holding its collective breath.
Click to expand...

The two flights I made into Wuxi the past several days were interesting. the whole airport was a ghost town other than the activity around my plane. On approach and departure, looking out the window, I was shocked at how empty the roads were. Just three weeks ago, when I was last in Wuxi, the roads were packed and gridlocked. It was almost eerie.
 
shreadvector said:
"This year" is not over yet.
The Fun Ships:
https://www.foxnews.com/travel/7000...ronavirus-passenger-suspected-symptoms-report
Click to expand...

Out of idle curiosity, I wonder who is paying for those ships to stay in port?
It would suck to get stuck on one of those floating prisons.
But it would suck even more if you had to pay for your "quarantine stay" imprisonment!

cwbullet said:
Unless it mutates significantly, it is not as virulent or deadly as Flu. I am not worried in slightest, yet.
Click to expand...

Agreed.
2019-nCoV is a flue/influenza-sized threat.

Media hysteria and conspiracy theories are blowing this WAY out of proportion.
Not sure why.
I guess fear attracts eye balls, and sells adds.

"SARS, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, is commonly used as a reference in coronavirus coverage, since both originated in China and share characteristics. In all, 8,098 SARS cases were recorded, with a death toll of 774. That’s a fatality rate of 9.6%.

With current numbers, the fatality rate for 2019-nCoV is 2.4%. The WHO said most coronavirus cases reported to date “have been milder, with about 20% of those infected experiencing severe illness.”

https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/n...mptoms-of-wuhan-china-novel-virus/4563892002/
https://www.ccn.com/relax-coronavirus-is-less-dangerous-than-the-flu-says-epidemic-expert/

Winston said:
Coronavirus Alert: [...]
[...]CDC Quarantines 195 Americans
[...]India prohibits
[...]Based upon "very early and limited data
Click to expand...

<Winston>, are you ready to give it rest, yet?

I'm unsubscribing from this thread.
 
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I predict that this time next year we will be asking Corona-who?
 
This whole thing has me thinking that it is likely wise, as a parent, to prepare for an emergency. I haven't given it much thought, and I am not talking about anything on the extreme prepers end. I am more looking for ideas on what is reasonable. In the event of a serious virus outbreak, or other disaster, natural or otherwise, what is reasonable? Three days of supplies, three weeks, months, a year? And what type of survival gear? I have already looked at the preper sites for info, and there is a lot of good stuff to go through, but I am not looking to build a bunker. I feel that it is my responsibility to take some "reasonable precautions", I know subjective, and plan wisely for the sake of my young family.

Any feedback is appreciated.
 
The TARC team that I mentor is based out of an after-school program in a largely Chinese-American city (there are quite a few of them in SoCal...). Yesterday I got a notice that the center was doing "online-only" training, basically until further notice, because of the risk of "virus infection". There aren't even any confirmed cases in SoCal (even among the people from that quarantined evac plane)... apparently the media frenzy got to them. A few other cities have canceled their Chinese New Year festivities, primarily because they don't think anybody is going to show up. Totally ridiculous...
 
mpitfield said:
This whole thing has me thinking that it is likely wise, as a parent, to prepare for an emergency. I haven't given it much thought, and I am not talking about anything on the extreme prepers end. I am more looking for ideas on what is reasonable. In the event of a serious virus outbreak, or other disaster, natural or otherwise, what is reasonable? Three days of supplies, three weeks, months, a year? And what type of survival gear? I have already looked at the preper sites for info, and there is a lot of good stuff to go through, but I am not looking to build a bunker. I feel that it is my responsibility to take some "reasonable precautions", I know subjective, and plan wisely for the sake of my young family.

Any feedback is appreciated.
Click to expand...
You should have a proper first aid kit, some bottles that could be filled from the water heater in a pinch, and some non-perishable food.

That's just generally good sense, no matter what natural or man-made disasters are probable in your area.

Also, most folks in the US tick those boxes without even trying.
 
mpitfield said:
This whole thing has me thinking that it is likely wise, as a parent, to prepare for an emergency. I haven't given it much thought, and I am not talking about anything on the extreme prepers end. I am more looking for ideas on what is reasonable. In the event of a serious virus outbreak, or other disaster, natural or otherwise, what is reasonable? Three days of supplies, three weeks, months, a year? And what type of survival gear? I have already looked at the preper sites for info, and there is a lot of good stuff to go through, but I am not looking to build a bunker. I feel that it is my responsibility to take some "reasonable precautions", I know subjective, and plan wisely for the sake of my young family.

Any feedback is appreciated.
Click to expand...

Several years ago I worked with my neighborhood about preparedness. I used this website: https://www.ready.gov/plan

Wayco and I are not what I would call "hardcore preppers" but we have a plan and the items needed to back it up.

For example, In our upstairs bathroom we have (4) 7 gallon water containers. Added Aguamira to them so we no longer have to pour them out and refill them every year. That is in addition to a small lake outside our house and we have water purifiers from our backpacking supplies.

https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B00B39KSUO/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_asin_title_o00_s00?ie=UTF8&psc=1

I didn't have much luck with my neighbors who seem to have a "la la la, everything will be fine" attitude. Ironically, my very next door neighbor, who basically blew the entire concept off, had a water leak and had to shut off his water until repaired. He showed up at my door asking for water so they could flush their toilets. So I sent him upstairs for one of those water containers. It was hard but I didn't rub in the fact that they should have their own supply of water. I guess I have enabled him since he STILL does not have a water supply.

The whole point I was trying to make with my neighborhood is that we are not prepping for a zombie invasion but for regular things that happen in life.
 
dr wogz said:
I'm surprised no one has posted this:
https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019

They seem to be publishing reports about every 24 hrs.. And I do believe "the smart people in charge" refer to them for updates & such..
Click to expand...
Thanks, here's more:

https://www.thelancet.com/coronavirus

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/novel-coronavirus-china

https://www.nejm.org/

Case spreadsheet (not EVEN complete and it looks like they've given up on updating it):

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet...OAXrE3QeI8c9BC1hSlqr-NMiU/edit#gid=1187587451
 
Second Chinese City Bars Residents From Leaving Their Homes
1 Feb 2020

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopoliti...ing-their-homes-hong-kong-workers-demand-city

On Saturday, Huanggang, a city of 6 million people near Wuhan, has banned residents from leaving their homes in an effort to stop the coronavirus. The ban states that 1 person per family can leave every other day to buy basic needs.

It's the first city to declare a lockdown on par with Wuhan's total ban of people leaving their homes. Meanwhile Huanggang's mayor warned on Saturday that a "significant" increase in the number of confirmed cases on Saturday.

A doctor was filmed saying the media does not dare to report the true figures of infections in the city of Huanggang, which is near Wuhan, repeating that 3 local hospitals were filled with patients presented with fever.

...a report reportedly signed by hundreds of doctors blaming the Communist Party's leadership for waiting a month to inform the Chinese public and the international community that the virus could spread from human-to-human contact. The leadership was apparently aware of this fact as early as mid-December, yet they actively concealed it until the situation started getting out of hand and cases were being confirmed in neighboring countries.

China's finance ministry has finally announced that it's going to lift import taxes on American-made medical products needed to help combat the outbreak.

The scapegoating of local officials by Beijing continued on Saturday, when more than 300 party officials from Huanggang were punished for failing in their duty. [I wouldn't call it scapegoating. As a China expert has pointed out, up-channeling of bad news is just as risky in China as it was in the Soviet Union during Chernobyl. City officials probably kept their mouths shut and hoped for the best instead of sounding the alarm. - W]

"Huanggang, a city neighboring Wuhan, which records the second-largest number of novel coronavirus infections, punished 337 officials for slacking off from their duty in combating the coronavirus. Six of them were dismissed from their position."

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From Canada, current 2019-nCoV test is apparently not very accurate, even after symptoms are evident:

"Listening to CBC radio while in the car, the 4th case was outlined of a Western University student (London, Ontario) who had returned to London after a trip to Wuhan with her parents. Showing flu symptoms, she reported to University Hospital in London, was tested for the virus, and released after the test results were negative. Increasing symptoms sent her back to the hospital and another test. Surprise, surprise, after several days back in the community, but supposedly under self-isolation, the 2nd test came back positive. The health official quoted in the radio report stated everything was done properly, by the book, according the best scientific standards, it was only a 'mild' case, and 'Everything is under control.'"

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5 million people left Wuhan before China quarantined the city to contain the coronavirus outbreak - Jan 27, 2020

https://www.businessinsider.com/5-million-left-wuhan-before-coronavirus-quarantine-2020-1

The mayor of Wuhan, China, said about five million people left the city before it was placed on lockdown last week to slow the spread of coronavirus.
Mayor Zhou Xianwang said about 9 million people remained in the city after the quarantine started on Thursday, according to the South China Morning Post. Wuhan is the seventh-largest city in China with a population of about 11 million.

Escaping the outbreak may have been the cause for some people fleeing the city. But it also coincided with the Lunar New Year, China's most important holiday in which city workers return to their hometowns.

Lunar New Year is the largest annual human migration, with Chinese citizens making a combined 3 billion trips during the season.

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I listened to Dr. Steven Hatfill, former US bioweapons defense biologist who after reading genetic studies of 2019-nCoV says the virus hasn't been around for long, but the claims that it might be a leaked bioweapon are not supported by the evidence.

He brought up a major factor in the process of pathogen transmission called "serial passage" where a virus will mutate to balance its Ro (transmissibility) with its lethality to maximize reproductive success. If a virus in a low target density environment kills you quickly, it will cease to exist. In a high target density environment there is no such restraint. The virus can kill quickly and with an adequately high Ro still spread. So, with an adequate Ro in a high density target environment like Chinese mega-cities, the ongoing, random virus mutations have room to evolve to INCREASE lethality with no overwhelmingly negative effect (extinction) to reproductive success.

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Wuhan ghost town from drone.

Schools, cinemas and restaurants are closed in Wuhan, an industrial center with a population 1 1/2 times that of New York City. To keep people at home and reduce chances for infection, subway and bus services are shut down and private vehicle use is banned in downtown areas.

https://abcnews.go.com/Internationa...als-wuhan-ghost-town-amid-quarantine-68666168

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Symptoms and Maximum Body Temperatures According to Day of Illness and Day of Hospitalization, January 16 to January 30, 2020

nejmoa2001191_f2.jpeg


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Bird Flu Is Back - China Faces Yet Another Viral Plague
1 Feb 2020

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/bird-flu-back-china-faces-yet-another-viral-plague

It's been a tough few months for China...

First, they faced food shortages (and soaring food costs) as African Swine Fever swept across the nation cutting China's pork production in half and slaughtering hundreds of millions of their porcine pals.

Then, they faced total economic shutdown and social lockdown as the deadly Wuhan Coronavirus spread across the nation.

And now, as if things weren't bad enough, according to the website of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the Information Office of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, bird flu is back!

As Reuters reports, the highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreak of H5N1 subtype of poultry occurred in Shuangqing District, Shaoyang City, Hunan Province.

The case reportedly occurred on a farm with 7,850 chickens, 4,500 of which have died of the bird flu.

Authorities have culled 17,828 poultry following the outbreak.

As a reminder, Avian influenza is deadly to most birds, and it's deadly to humans and to other mammals that catch the virus from birds. Since the first human case in 1997, H5N1 has killed nearly 60% of the people who have been infected.

But unlike human flu bugs, H5N1 bird flu does not spread easily from person to person. The very few cases of human-to-human transmission have been among people with exceptionally close contact, such as a mother who caught the virus while caring for her sick infant.
What next?
 
cwbullet said:
I predict that this time next year we will be asking Corona-who?
Click to expand...
I agree that we probably will. The Chinese won't. They've now quarantined an area the size of France with the population of France (or so I heard claimed), so they just might nip it in the bud. But they won't forget it.
 
K'Tesh said:
I'm only going out for food... and I go late in the evening. Yantai is unusually quiet. It's weird being the only customer in a restaurant for over an hour.
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K'Tesh educate me. When I visited Beijing years ago, many of the communities were hutong arrangements with a communal bath/toilet nearby. Hi-rises were visible but not prevelent at that time. Is Yantai similar?
 
Ok... There are few restaurants with public restrooms (McDonalds, KFC, Yes (and they have soap), Burger King (both don't have a restroom, but one provides a sink with soap, the other hand sanitizer), Subway, no restroom, but has a sink with soap). Lots of hole in wall establishments (no seating). In the mall, there are several restrooms on each floor, and you can wash your hands, but you'll need to do that before you go into a restaurant as they frequently don't have public sinks or restrooms. Think of them much like you would an American mall's food court (but they have inside seating).


There are public restrooms scattered about. Rarely do they have soap, or toilet paper for that matter. They do have sinks to rinse off. To my knowledge there's only one hutong in Yantai. And as far as I know, each family unit has its own restroom. Several apartment buildings that are about 7 stories high, and an increasing amount of hi-rises. I personally live in a 32 story building on the 11th floor.
 
Excellent, thorough, up to date analysis except he amazingly didn't know, considering all he does know which I can confirm because I've also read it, that asymptomatic transmission has been confirmed.

 
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