Coronavirus Outbreak

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Winston

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What next!?

Residents of Wuhan reportedly heard loud noises at approximately 1pm local time on Thursday, which shook windows and floors of nearby residents, followed by what appears to be nearly a dozen helicopters.

Reports on power grid explosion in China

https://twitter.com/russian_market/status/1228059451510448129

The helicopters

https://twitter.com/Alston_Kwan/status/1227855083892658177

Coronavirus: Why many deaths will never appear in official figures - 12 Feb 2020
- Wuhan’s overburdened health workers are unable to confirm many of those who died were suffering from Covid-19, so they will not show up in official figures
- The families of those who die at home are also denied the comfort of being able to make proper funeral arrangements [nor are those dying at home who weren't diagnosed counted in the CVID-19 death figures - W]

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soc...body-china-knows-about-many-deaths-will-never

Retired Wuhan factory worker Wei Junlan had always been in good health, but around two weeks after developing the first signs of a cough and fever, the 63-year-old was dead from what doctors suspect was the new coronavirus.

But her death on January 21 will not show up in official statistics about the outbreak – her death certificate listed the cause only as “heavy pneumonia”.

Her nephew Jerry Shang said that Wei had not been tested for the disease, but that the doctor said her symptoms – including a lung infection, fever and increasing weakness – closely matched those of Covid-19, the disease caused by the virus.

By the end she was unable to walk, and the last the family saw of her was when she was being wheeled into the emergency room. The doctor told the family: “It’s the pneumonia that everybody around the country knows about.”

Local doctors have heard of many such cases and many Wuhan residents have complained that family members cannot get a proper diagnosis because frontline hospitals are overwhelmed in the face of high patient numbers and a shortage of supplies and testing kits.

Wei Peng, a community hospital doctor in the city, said that medical staff were not allowed to list coronavirus as a cause of death when cases had not been confirmed and said that later instructions had even banned them from listing pneumonia. Instead they can only write the immediate cause of a patient’s death, such as diabetes or organ failure.

He also said the problem was compounded by the difficulty in getting some patients to hospital in time.

He gave the example of a woman whose father died at home because she did not have the strength to get him to her car and the ambulance was too busy to collect him.

“Such patients die at home, nothing can be done, and they cannot be counted in the official numbers,” he said. Some patients, like Wei, have died without it ever being confirmed what had taken their lives.


Students’ dormitories ‘ransacked’ after requisitioned for coronavirus quarantine use in China
12 Feb 2020


The article says the regime is denying any cases of corona in the hermit kingdom.
But experts are skeptical as they share a very porous border with China.
If they do have it, they do not have the health infrastructure to control it.
The whole country could go down the tubes.
South Korea needs to be very nervous.
https://www.foxnews.com/health/north...s-cases-expert
North Korea 'executes trade official for visiting a public bath while he was in quarantine over coronavirus fears after returning from China'
- South Korean media said the trade official was arrested and immediately shot
- Kim Jong-un has imposed military law to enforce the coronavirus quarantine
- North Korea has no confirmed cases [of course, they lie worse than the Chinese Communist Party - W] but has taken strict quarantine measures

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...es-official-public-bath-visit-quarantine.html

The trade official was reportedly quarantined under a policy of isolating anyone who had been to China or had contact with Chinese people.

He is said to have fallen foul of a decree by Kim Jong-un which vowed to 'rule by military law' against anyone who left quarantine without approval.

Another official is said to have been exiled to a North Korean farm after trying to cover up his travels to China.

The second official was reportedly a member of the secretive kingdom's National Security Agency.

North Korea has almost completely closed the border with China, its only major diplomatic ally.

Flights have been reduced with road and rail links either closed or heavily restricted, while foreign tourists have been banned.

State media reported that North Korea's Red Cross Society had deployed to 'relevant areas' around the country to monitor people with possible symptoms.

It was unknown how many of them have returned home.

World Health Organisation officials based in Pyongyang have said they are not aware of any confirmed cases.

However, some South Korean media outlets have reported multiple cases and even possible deaths from the virus in the North.

North Korea took similar tough quarantine measures during the 2002-03 spread of SARS, which also began in China.

The North did not report any SARS cases at the time, according to the South Korean government.

A health worker in protective gear carries a disinfectant spray can on their way to inspect arrivals at Pyongyang Airport in North Korea:




While all other news sources are clueless, this one has many details:

Coronavirus 'Spreading in N.Korea'
February 05, 2020

http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2020/02/05/2020020502187.html

Wuhan Crematory 127 Yesterday, This is 4 to 5 Times Normal Rate
9 Feb 2020

https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/econ...-4-5-times-normal-rate-hcpFWN-1pEKCzCo26oPXLA

Here is a translation from China Press on Worker Burnout at the Wuhan Crematorium.

The site does not allow capturing text so I made this image clip.

Only 8 of 116 Counted as an Official [COVID-19] Death



That is just one funeral home.

China Vows To Put An End To "Lab Leakage Of Pathogenic Microorganisms And Various Samples"
13 Feb 2020

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/china-vows-put-end-lab-leakage-pathogenic-samples

Seemingly providing more anecdotal evidence that the Covid-19 outbreak was caused by an accidental leak of a bio-engineered virus and not by some freak of nature in Wuhan's market, China's Communist Party has issued a serious "Wartime Order" demanding more care and containment be taken with virus handling. Specifically:

“Strengthen laboratory management and resolutely put an end to the theft, leakage, and loss of pathogenic bacteria (poisons) and various samples...”


... the idea that a Chinese lab could have a viral sample escape is well-documented – as mentioned, one lab in Beijing has had four separate incidents of the SARS virus leaking out accidentally. “These narratives of escaped pathogens have common themes,” argued an analysis of biocontainment failures by medical historian Martin Furmanski in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. “There are unrecognized technical flaws in standard biocontainment... The first infection, or index case, happens in a person not working directly with the pathogen that infects him or her, as in the smallpox and SARS escapes. Poor training of personnel and slack oversight of laboratory procedures negate policy efforts by national and international bodies to achieve biosecurity, as shown in the SARS and smallpox escapes.”


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Smoking Gun? Chinese Scientist Finds "Killer Coronavirus Probably Originated From A Laboratory In Wuhan"
14 Feb 2020

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/sm...onavirus-probably-originated-laboratory-wuhan

The uncertainty and the debate over the origins of the coronavirus pandemic are growing with each passing day.

That has now changed, however, with what may be a "smoking gun" report from a scientist at the prestigious South China University of Technology in Guangzhou China. A pre-print published by Botao Xiao and Lei Xiao, titled "The possible origins of 2019-nCoV coronavirus" whose abstract is the following:

"The 2019-nCoV has caused an epidemic of 28,060 laboratory-confirmed infections in human including 564 deaths in China by February 6, 2020. Two descriptions of the virus published on Nature this week indicated that the genome sequences from patients were almost identical to the Bat CoV ZC45 coronavirus. It was critical to study where the pathogen came from and how it passed onto human. An article published on The Lancet reported that 27 of 41 infected patients were found to have contact with the Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan. We noted two laboratories conducting research on bat coronavirus in Wuhan, one of which was only 280 meters from the seafood market. We briefly examined the histories of the laboratories and proposed that the coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory. Our proposal provided an alternative origin of the coronavirus in addition to natural recombination and intermediate host."

and an especially ominous conclusion:

"In summary, somebody was entangled with the evolution of 2019-nCoV coronavirus. In addition to origins of natural recombination and intermediate host, the killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan."

Who is Botao and should anyone listen to him? Well, yes: this is what we find about the research group of the Harvard post-doc:

"The Xiao group study mainly in the fields of cellular and molecular biomechanics, single molecule biophysics and engineering. Current research areas are: protein-ligand interactions, DNA and RNA assembly, high-throughput nanometer measurements and manipulation, mathematical modeling and quantitative analysis. The experimental techniques include: magnetic tweezers, optical tweezers, biomembrane force probe, fluorescent microscopy, genetic engineering, and chromatography. An project example is using high-throughput single molecule techniques to study the modulation of protein drugs on interactions of integrins and their ligands such as TGF-beta. We also study von Willebrand Factor and glycoproteins on platelets. We collaborate with a number of well-known universities and institutions, and a few enterprises. Our research will be of relevance for the prevention and treatment of cancer, immune and cardiovascular diseases."

But what is far more interesting, and important, is that the paper was supported by China's National Natural Science Foundation, which means that the paper would likely never see the light of day if someone in Beijing did not stand to gain politically by endorsing the contrarian theory that a Wuhan biolab was indeed the source of the infection.

Which begs the question: is China's political elite set to change the narrative it has been spinning since day one about the origins of the coronavirus, and in order to appease an increasingly angry population, points the finger to one or more scientists at the Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention and/or Wuhan Institute of Virology.

Another extremely informative video as usual from this Hong Kong sourced channel with COVID-19 related news from INSIDE China and covered nowhere else.

China fights coronavirus with 'wartime' measures


Is The Coronavirus Now Unstoppable? New Data Suggests So [the Los Alamos study I previously linked to is explained starting at 9:00]


'It's Coming': CDC Director says to prepare for coronavirus to become widespread in America


WHO Turns On China, Demands To Know How Nearly 2,000 Doctors Were Infected With COVID-19
14 Feb 2020

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopoliti...s-infected-shortages-medical-supplies-persist

The WHO has just wrapped up its now-daily presser for Friday, and it appeared to focus on imminent plans to send a group of a dozen scientists and researchers to Beijing to figure out exactly what the hell is going on.

Much fuss has been made over the past week over China's continued refusals to allow Americans, or any other foreigners, for that matter, to offer assistance with the virus response. It's almost as if they're...hiding something...

Even after yesterday's big reveal about the change in their 'pro forma accounting standards' to reflect a higher death toll and number of confirmed cases (the jump alarmed global investors and prompted a selloff on equity markets), China still won't let Americans participate in a WHO-sponsored team of 12 researchers who are traveling to the mainland.

It was a big deal earlier this week when Beijing said it would reluctantly accept the team, ending weeks of suspiciously standoffish behavior (though the WHO bigwigs did travel to Beijing for meetings). But as one analyst said earlier on CNBC: 'We want to see foreign boots on the ground before we simply take the Chinese at their word'.

It's also notable how the WHO, initially a purveyor of what seemed like propaganda hot off the presses in Beijing, seems to have turned completely against its benefactor, now treating it with public suspicion.

After imposing strict lockdown conditions on nearly a third of the country, Beijing is kicking off its shift to 'wartime measures' by adopting even more strikingly draconian measures on the residents of its capital city.

From Feb. 14 on, all people returning to the city will be advised to quarantine for 14 days.
 
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swatkat

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San Diego just officially declared a state of emergency out of an "abundance of precaution".
 

Winston

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https://www.zerohedge.com/geopoliti...s-infected-shortages-medical-supplies-persist

Toll of infected passengers and crew aboard 'the Diamond Princess' climbs 30% to 285; The US arranges a charter plane for Americans aboard ship

First fatality in Europe as Chinese tourist died in France.

China has sent 217 medical rescue groups totaling 25,633 personnel to Hubei province to fight the outbreak.

First case reported in Africa after the Egyptian Health Ministry confirms non-Egyptian patient who recently traveled to China [there are 1 million Chinese living in Africa; how many went home for the Lunar New Year holiday and returned?; if cases begin to spread in dirt poor sub-Saharan Africa it will be an absolute catastrophe - W]

Hubei health officials report 2,420 new cases and 139 new deaths for Feb. 14

China’s NHC reports 5,090 new COVID-19 cases for Feb. 14 [Bioweapons expert Steven Hatfill says that China is basically toast because they implemented extreme quarantine measures far too late and it will just have to burn itself out... eventually; he asks us to imagine what would happen to the US economy if the same was done here; see the Xi Jinping admission link below that he was behind the cover-up that led to this catastrophe; expect possible major political repercussions in China as a result - W]

China warns of incoming case surge [still being limited by test kit availability, overwhelmed medical facilities and based upon anecdotal evidence I've posted before, still way below actual figures - W]

China says 1,716 medical workers have been infected

WHO demands to know more about sick doctors, insists group of 12 virus experts will reach Beijing over the weekend [China hasn't let anyone in from the rest of the world... hiding much? - W]

Singapore reports largest daily jump in cases amid increased human-to-human transmission [in the outstanding interview linked below with an epidemic reporter who worked on the SARS, MERS and Ebola outbreaks, she says that Singapore has the best epidemic control system in the world because of how badly SARS hit them and if they don't succeed in stopping an epidemic there fuggedaboutit being successful anywhere else - W]

Virus now present in 29 countries/territories

Hong Kong reports 3 new cases

New quarantine measures take effect in Wuhan

Hong Kong Disney land offers space for quarantine

Chinese company says blood plasma of recovered patients useful in combating the virus


US mulling new travel restrictions [30,000 people have returned to the US from China as of a few days ago and the screening method is an absolute joke; travel from China or any infected country should have been BANNED, but that would involve a major loss of M-O-N-E-Y; in a study in China of 138 people in one hospital, 41% of confirmed cases were acquired IN the hospital; thus, in this peak in the US flu season there could be a silent epidemic beginning where people going to their GP or hospital thinking they have the common flu might instead have COVID-19 while others, being in the 80% who show only mild cold symptoms would be going to work and everywhere else; 97% of antibiotics used in the US and the vast majority of personal protective equipment [PPE] is made in China - W]

Japan reports 4 new cases; one patient recently returned from Hawaii.

5 presumptive cases reported in British Columbia

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https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1228670307482963969

Jennifer Zeng
@jenniferatntd

Xi Jinping admitted it is he who covered up the COVID19 coronavirus epidemic in China. In a speech he made on Feb 3 (full text in Chinese: http://bit.ly/31Xjbjz), he said he started overseeing the disease control campaign as early as Jan 7.

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A few key points from many in the video below:

If Singapore can't stop an epidemic there, forget about it being stopped anywhere else.

No vaccine was ever developed for SARS or MERS, so she's not optimistic about claims of short term development of one for the very SARS-like SARS-CoV-2.

She, like other experts I've seen interviewed, is tired of the common flu whataboutism comparison; there is no herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2, no vaccine, and the transmissibility and death rates are much higher; if it becomes a new, widespread seasonal flu as it probably will, that will be very bad; the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic killed 75 to 100 million, went around the world three times in 18 months in the era before air transport, and had an Ro<2.

China Coronavirus: Tough Realities & Possibility of Global Pandemic—Epidemic Reporter Laurie Garrett


China Steel Demand, Property Sales, Traffic All Approaching Zero [with graphs]
14 Feb 2020

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics...d-property-sales-traffic-all-approaching-zero

Air traffic at China’s busiest airports down 80% since the beginning of the year
14 Feb 2020

https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/...orts-down-80-since-the-beginning-of-the-year/

On 21 January 10,522 flights departed from China’s 25 busiest airports (see list below). On 11 Febraury, just 2,123 flights departed from those airports. Traffic in Beijing is down nearly 80%, Shanghai is down 70%, and Guangzhou is down nearly 80% as well.



The purple line is Wuhan; the dark blue line is Beijing:



Exclusive: Chinese doctors say Wuhan coronavirus reinfection even deadlier
Instead of creating immunity the virus can reportedly reinfect an individual and hasten fatal heart attack
14 Feb 2020

https://www.taiwannews.com.tw/en/news/3876197

Both the relative and doctors asked to remain anonymous, out of consideration they might face retribution from the Chinese authorities. The doctor, Li Wenliang, who first raised warnings about the Wuhan virus, was rebuked by the authorities before succumbing to the devastating disease himself earlier this month.

According to the message forwarded to Taiwan News, “It’s highly possible to get infected a second time. A few people recovered from the first time by their own immune system, but the meds they use are damaging their heart tissue, and when they get it the second time, the antibody doesn’t help but makes it worse, and they die a sudden death from heart failure.”

The source also said the virus has “outsmarted all of us,” as it can hide symptoms for up to 24 days. This assertion has been made independently elsewhere, with Chinese pulmonologist Zhong Nanshan saying the average incubation period is three days, but it can take as little as one day and up to 24 days to develop symptoms.

Also, the source said that false negative tests for the virus are fairly common. “It can fool the test kit – there were cases that they found, the CT scan shows both lungs are fully infected but the test came back negative four times. The fifth test came back positive.”




Images of new coronavirus just released
13 Feb 2020

https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-images.html

On Thursday (Feb. 13), the Rocky Mountain Laboratories (RML) at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases revealed some of the first images of SARS-CoV-2, the new coronavirus that has sickened over 60,000 people and killed another 1,370 in the outbreak that began in Wuhan, China.
Researchers at RML imaged samples of the virus and cells taken from a U.S. patient infected with COVID-19 (the new name for the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2) using two different kinds of high-resolution microscopes — the scanning electron microscope and the transmission electron microscope. Both use a focused beam of electrons rather than a beam of light to image samples.

The SARS-COV-2 virus looks similar to the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV), which emerged in 2012, and the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV), which emerged in 2002, according to a statement.

This scanning electron microscope image shows the new coronavirus (yellow) among human cells (blue, pink and purple).




New Images of Novel Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 Now Available
13 Feb 2020

https://www.niaid.nih.gov/news-events/novel-coronavirus-sarscov2-images

NIAID’s Rocky Mountain Laboratories (RML) in Hamilton, Montana, produced images of the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2, previously known as 2019-nCoV) on its scanning and transmission electron microscopes on Tuesday, Feb. 11, 2020. SARS-CoV-2 causes COVID-19 disease, which has grown to be a global public health emergency since cases were first detected in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. RML investigator Emmie de Wit, Ph.D., provided the virus samples as part of her studies, microscopist Elizabeth Fischer produced the images, and the RML visual medical arts office digitally colorized the images.

Note that the images do not look much different from MERS-CoV (Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus, which emerged in 2012) or the original SARS-CoV (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus, which emerged in 2002). That is not surprising: The spikes on the surface of coronaviruses give this virus family its name – corona, which is Latin for “crown,” and most any coronavirus will have a crown-like appearance.

These images are available to the public for free high-resolution download on the NIAID Flickr page:


https://www.flickr.com/photos/niaid/albums/72157712914621487

NIAID asks all who use the images to please credit NIAID-RML.



Under China's coronavirus lockdown, millions have nowhere to go
14 Feb 2020

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...own-millions-have-nowhere-to-go-idUSKBN2081DB

(Reuters) - Around 500 million people in China are currently affected by policies put in place restricting movement, to contain the COVID-19 coronavirus.

That’s more than the entire population of the United States and is equivalent to roughly 6.5% of the world’s population.

As of Friday, at least 48 cities and four provinces in China have issued official notices for lockdown policies, with measures ranging from “closed-off management”, where residents of a community have to be registered before they are allowed in or out, to restrictions that shut down highways, railways and public transport systems.

The lockdowns began with Wuhan - the epicentre of the outbreak and where half the world’s confirmed coronavirus cases are. After the city’s borders were closed on Jan. 23 and all incoming and outgoing flights cancelled, other nearby cities in Hubei province also implemented their own policies restricting the movement of people.

But not every city or province is facing Wuhan-like restrictions. Citizens cannot leave the cities of Wuhan, Huanggang, Ezhou and a few others in Hubei province, while Shanghai and Beijing have only put movement restrictions in place for some smaller communities such as building blocks or neighbourhoods.

Many cities have reduced public transport lines and routes, while few have closed intra-city public transport entirely. Altogether, 80.41 million people have been affected by shut bus or metro lines.

Some communities have instituted curfews or only allow people to exit and enter at particular times. There is even a restriction where only a certain number of people from a household can leave their residence at any one time.


China Expands Chaotic Dragnet in Coronavirus Crackdown
The “wartime” campaign to round up all who might be sick was extended to cities beyond the epicenter, even as it was marred by confusion that has isolated vulnerable patients and left some to die.
14 Feb 2020

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/13/world/asia/13china-coronavirus-cases.html

This Scary Map Shows How Coronavirus May Be Spreading Globally Through Wuhan Travellers
13 Feb 2020

https://www.news18.com/news/tech/th...globally-through-wuhan-travelers-2499753.html

Researchers say they used a combination of flight trackers and cell phone tracking data to map where travelers from Wuhan went. The idea was to understand typical travel and movement patterns of people within China and around the world. The annual 40-day Lunar New Year celebrations, including the seven-day public holiday that started January 24, saw millions travel around the world. “It’s vital that we understand patterns of population movement, both within China and globally, in order to assess how this new virus might spread – domestically and internationally. By mapping these trends and identifying high-risk areas, we can help inform public health interventions, such as screenings and healthcare preparedness,” says Andrew Tatem, Director of WorldPop and professor within Geography and Environmental Science at the University of Southampton.

The WorldPop researchers at the University of Southampton worked with University of Toronto, St Michael’s Hospital Toronto, disease surveillance organisation Bluedot in Toronto and the China Centre for Disease Control and Prevention.

The researchers have identified Bangkok as a city which is at great risk from the Coronavirus, based on the air travel patterns. This is followed by Hong Kong, Taipei, Seoul, Tokyo, Singapore, Phuket, Osaka, Kuala Lumpur and Macau making up the top 10 cities at risk. Sydney at 12, New York at 16, Dubai at 17, London at 19 and Paris at 27 are some other cities that do otherwise see a lot of travel around the world.

Among the countries that received airline travellers from Mainland China around the time, Thailand worryingly leads the list with Japan, Hong Kong and Taiwan following. India is at position 23 in the risk chart, out of 30 countries.

A map based on data from flight and cell phone data compiled by University of Southampton researchers shows how 60,000 people who left Wuhan after the coronavirus outbreak traveled around the world (Image: University of Southampton / WorldPop):


 
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Winston

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Diamond Princess cruise ship passenger with COVID-19 speaks out - it would have never been detected if it hadn't been for a throat swab taken simply because she had been in an infected area of China. No fever. Flabbergasted to find she had it.


CDC: Flu surveillance system enlisted in hunt for COVID-19 cases
14 Feb 2020

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-pers...veillance-system-enlisted-hunt-covid-19-cases

As a way to spot any community COVID-19 activity early, federal health officials will use the nation's flu surveillance system to look for people who may be infected with the disease.

US Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar first unveiled the plan yesterday. Its first phase will be launched at public health labs that are part of the flu surveillance system in Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, Chicago, and New York City.

[snip]

Though the goal is still to contain the virus, global health officials worry that it may be already circulating undetected in countries outside China. For now, all 15 cases in the United States have been linked to Hubei province travelers or their close contacts, but Messonnier said the pattern could change, and federal health officials want to be prepared.

The initial US plan to detect community spread hinges on public health lab workers testing samples that are negative for flu for the virus that causes COVID-19. She said any positive tests would be a warning signal that would drive a change in public health strategy.
 
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Mushtang

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If the virus spreads as quickly as they say then I can't expect a single person on that cruise ship will avoid it. A week or so ago a radio interview with someone on the ship said they were confined to their rooms and were going stir crazy and the food was being rationed.

The doctor would go room to room checking people. Among the things he did was look in their ears with the little scope. Unlike in the US he didn't have disposable tips, he just wiped off the plastic tip before looking in his ear, then wiped it off and looked in his wife's ear, and went to the next room. Seems risky.

If that's the level of sanitation they practice for the ear scope I have to assume it's how everything else is done. They're all doomed.

What do you do with hundreds of dead bodies on a cruise ship? That's not the first half of a stupid joke, I really wonder what will happen there.
 

Marc_G

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Even if everyone gets it, it won't be hundreds of dead presuming they get decent care. Most cases are moderate and only a few percent will die. It is still awful to be cooped up like that in instead of properly isolated so they won't infect each other.
 

Winston

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What do you do with hundreds of dead bodies on a cruise ship? That's not the first half of a stupid joke, I really wonder what will happen there.
They remove infected persons from the ship as they find them and take them to a hospital.

I'm more concerned about what might happen here. The CDC says it expects community outbreaks here and biowarfare expert Steven Hatfill says that with something like this, if outbreaks aren't limited to small numbers, it's over.

The health filtering of the 30,000 who have returned from China as of a few days ago according to the CDC briefing (and they're still coming) is a joke considering their only tools are to question the individual about where they've been and take a temperature reading. Note that the gal on the cruise ship in the video above didn't have a fever. Also, if the threat for being truthful is at least 14 days in quarantine (which should be reset every time someone infected is found among a quarantined group) meaning a very delayed return to work and family, how many of the 30,000 and counting might lie because they feel just fine and don't have a fever to detect?

The cruise ship that couldn't find a place where they were allowed to dock even though they claimed they "didn't have any cases onboard" was finally allowed to dock yesterday in Cambodia... and an infected person was found after passengers had disembarked!

Even if everyone gets it, it won't be hundreds of dead presuming they get decent care. Most cases are moderate and only a few percent will die. It is still awful to be cooped up like that in instead of properly isolated so they won't infect each other.
Latest estimate is 1% of all cases will die even with the best care. That is nearly 20 times higher than the common flu (0.054%) and would be 37 passengers and crew if all 3,700 caught it. Of course, not all of them will catch it and age distribution and health has a huge effect on the odds of death.

China’s Coronavirus Figures Don’t Add Up. ‘This Never Happens With Real Data.’
February 15, 2020

https://www.barrons.com/articles/a-semi-retired-journalist-and-his-dog-a-love-story-51581685206

A statistical analysis of China’s coronavirus casualty data shows a near-perfect prediction model that data analysts say isn’t likely to naturally occur, casting doubt over the reliability of the numbers being reported to the World Health Organization. That’s aside from news on Thursday that health officials in the epicenter of the outbreak reported a surge in new infections after changing how they diagnose the illness.

Barron’s re-created the regression analysis of total deaths caused by the virus, which first emerged in the central Chinese city of Wuhan at the end of last year, and found similarly high variance. We ran it by Melody Goodman, associate professor of biostatistics at New York University’s School of Global Public Health.

“I have never in my years seen an r-squared of 0.99,” Goodman says. “As a statistician, it makes me question the data.”

Real human data are never perfectly predictive when it comes to something like an epidemic, Goodman says, since there are countless ways that a person could come into contact with the virus.

For context, Goodman says a “really good” r-squared, in terms of public health data, would be a 0.7. “Anything like 0.99,” she said, “would make me think that someone is simulating data. It would mean you already know what is going to happen.”

There’s one scenario where the data could be understandably jiggered, Goodman said. Because there are privacy concerns around public health data, it’s conceivable that someone would simulate the data based on real data, so as to make the individuals unidentifiable. But even then, the r-squared in this case is extraordinarily high. Moreover, says Goodman, when data are manipulated to protect privacy, it would need to be disclosed; there is no such disclosure on the WHO site.

What does this mean for investors and analysts? If something seems too good to be true, it probably is.
 
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cwbullet

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A couple of the posts in this thread have bordered on political. Please avoid crossing that line. We do not need to place blame on what is obviously a human tragedy.
 

Winston

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The stock markets haven't yet taken a hit because:

1. They fail to realize how bad the situation in China is.
2. They think no matter what, China will artificially stimulate the economy to overcome that.

Nope... We'll see if the markets wake up soon.

Beijing Crashes The Party: Chinese Media Warns Austerity Is Coming After FinMin Says "Proactive Fiscal Policy" No Longer Feasible
16 Feb 2020

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics...-austerity-coming-after-finmin-says-proactive

And here is why one can no longer even trust Bloomberg for objective and accurate, reporting of news: according to the Global Times' report of what the Chinese finance minister said, instead of "vowing more fiscal support", China's top financier actually urged local government to brace for "belt-tightening", to wit:

"China will face decreased fiscal revenues and increased expenditures for some time to come, and the fiscal operation will maintain a state of 'tight balance.', Chinese Finance Minister Liu Kun wrote in an article published on Qiushi, a magazine affiliated with the Communist Party of China Central Committee. In this situation, it won't be feasible to adopt a proactive fiscal policy by expanding the fiscal expenditure scale. I, and instead, policies and capital must be used in a more effective, precise and targeted way," Liu said. Chinese Finance Minister Liu Kun wrote in an article published on Qiushi, a magazine affiliated with the Communist Party of China Central Committee.

Much to the chagrin of anyone betting that Beijing will do anything to offset the economic decline about to slam the economy, the Global Times said that "Liu's article sent a clear signal that China would not stimulate the economy by rolling out another massive monetary stimulus."

Which is not to say that China won't do anything, it just won't do as much as many hope: due to the dire impact of the coronavirus outbreak on businesses across the country, the Ministry of Finance has already made it clear that it would continue to reduce the tax burden on enterprises, which will undoubtedly weigh down the already slowing fiscal income.
 

Winston

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A couple of the posts in this thread have bordered on political. Please avoid crossing that line. We do not need to place blame on what is obviously a human tragedy.
I haven't noticed any and they haven't been coming from me.
 

Steven

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I was going to bring the Japanese and Godzilla into this. Oh, and the Russians and digging underground shelters too.
 

cwbullet

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I was going to bring the Japanese and Godzilla into this. Oh, and the Russians and digging underground shelters too.
The degree of panic and the press coverage is nearly ridiculous. You would think that you have to start building the bomb shelters in your back lawn.
 

boatgeek

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What do you do with hundreds of dead bodies on a cruise ship? That's not the first half of a stupid joke, I really wonder what will happen there.
It won't handle hundreds, but medium to large cruise ships have a morgue and body freezer on board. They also have hospital facilities for moderately serious illnesses and injuries, basically anything that doesn't require surgery. They don't advertise either facility, but it makes sense given the average age of the passengers even in normal times.

As previously noted, in this particular case the known infected patients are taken ashore for treatment.
 

Steven

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It's why I got rid of the outlets to all this hype. You can't imagine how cleansed one feels after that. Back to Starbucks and rockets tomorrow.
 

cwbullet

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It won't handle hundreds, but medium to large cruise ships have a morgue and body freezer on board. They also have hospital facilities for moderately serious illnesses and injuries, basically anything that doesn't require surgery. They don't advertise either facility, but it makes sense given the average age of the passengers even in normal times.

As previously noted, in this particular case the known infected patients are taken ashore for treatment.
Bodies are refrigerated or chilled but not frozen.
 

KILTED COWBOY

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My son is working on a cruise ship till end of March
Says they are spraying down the entire ship daily
Sent us a photo of them using what looks like those canister sprayers they use to spray landscaping
Can’t wait for him to finish and get on a tanker Or a cable layer
Lot less people
 

Ez2cDave

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A couple of the posts in this thread have bordered on political. Please avoid crossing that line. We do not need to place blame on what is obviously a human tragedy.
Chuck,

Since we are discussing, among other things, the actions and inaction's of a foreign, Communist government ( China ), with global ramifications, "politics" is, obviously, going to be an "integral" part of the situation, at every level.

The "human tragedy" is being exacerbated by actions and inaction's of the Communist Chinese government, greatly increasing the pain, suffering, and death of Coronavirus victims, their friends and family, and the world, as a whole !

Dave F.
 

Steven

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Then this thread should be closed.
 

Winston

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Then this thread should be closed.
No, people who misbehave should be banned from posting to it. I post data very relevant to everyone if it ever spreads here (which, BTW, I'm doing for me and just filling everyone else in as a courtesy) and will continue to do so unless people don't want me to. US market warnings are also appropriate.
 

Ez2cDave

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The bottom line is that the Coronavirus must be stopped. Hopefully, it is not already too late to accomplish that. Honesty from the Chinese government could have been instrumental in preventing the spread of the disease to whatever its true, present level is. That did not take place, and has yet to occur, leaving vast numbers of human beings at risk, not only in China, but globally. We need accurate information and honest answers from China, in order to understand what we are truly up against. For whatever reasons, that does not appear to be forthcoming. These are the facts, whether they suit our individual interpretations, or not, and the entire human population, potentially, is at risk.

Dave F.
 

cwbullet

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The bottom line is that the Coronavirus must be stopped. Hopefully, it is not already too late to accomplish that. Honesty from the Chinese government could have been instrumental in preventing the spread of the disease to whatever its true, present level is. That did not take place, and has yet to occur, leaving vast numbers of human beings at risk, not only in China, but globally. We need accurate information and honest answers from China, in order to understand what we are truly up against. For whatever reasons, that does not appear to be forthcoming. These are the facts, whether they suit our individual interpretations, or not, and the entire human population, potentially, is at risk.

Dave F.
You overestimate the strength of the virus. Unless something changes, this virus is not Inuenza and will not result in the levels of deaths seen with that catastrophic virus. The reason for the high death toll in China is population density more than anything else. Sure they were slow to react, but they are packed in like cord wood in many of those cities.
 

Winston

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Beijing Finally Accepts American Infectious-Disease Experts
17 Feb 2020

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopoliti...positive-during-flight-back-us-tokyo-marathon

Japan says 454 passengers and crew from the 'Diamond Princess' have been confirmed infected - that's another 90 cases.

-------

Though deaths and confirmed cases outside China are still far below the number confirmed inside China, since nobody trust's China's numbers given the current state of their economy (why would so many people - 760 million - need to be on lockdown for a problem that's mostly localized to Hubei?) the trajectory of these numbers is probably the best barometer for how the outbreak is going.

Last night, Reuters reported that police across China have carried out raids on homes, restaurants and makeshift markets and arrested more than 700 people accused of violating the nationwide ban on the selling or consumption of wild animals.

The Politburo Standing Committee, the highest authority in the country, will meet on Feb. 24 to discuss whether to delay the National People's Congress, an annual meeting of 3,000 party leaders from across the country descend on Beijing to pass new laws and discuss government plans and the national budget. The meeting typically takes place in early March "like clockwork" and postponing it would be a gesture packed with symbolism for the Chinese people. The NYT said the delay is now "virtually certain."

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It's like the 'Alien' franchise: The evacuation ship always carries the monster.

Unfortunately, in this instance, the monster is an invisible, inaudible yet highly infectious virus. And instead of the Nostromo, we have two chartered Boeing 747s.

According to the New York Post, 14 Americans among the more than 300 US citizen passengers being evacuated from the cruise ship 'Diamond Princess' after nearly two weeks of quarantine have tested positive for the virus. Officials said they didn't learn of the positive tests until the flight was about to take off.

Ahead of the flight, the State Department said that 40 Americans who had tested positive wouldn't be eligible for the evacuation flight, and would instead be entrusted to Japanese authorities. Of course, all of the Americans who traveled on the evacuation flights had to agree to a two week quarantine after returning to the US.

The sick individuals were reportedly "isolated" during the flight (but in a closed environment like an airplane during flight, how secure could they possibly be?).

"These individuals were moved in the most expeditious and safe manner to a specialized containment area on the evacuation aircraft to isolate them in accordance with standard protocols," the statement said. "During the flights, these individuals will continue to be isolated from the other passengers."

-------

In other news, Japanese health authorities have decided to cancel a major public sporting event despite there only being 65 confirmed cases of the virus in Japan (outside the Diamond Princess): The Tokyo Marathon, which was set to begin later this month, has been cancelled.

The annual event attracts hundreds of thousands of spectators to watch more than 20,000 runners compete in one of the six 'World Marathon Majors'.

Many international events and trade shows have been cancelled because of the outbreak, including events like the Mobile world Conference in Barcelona, an area with zero confirmed COVID-19 infections, and the Beijing Autoshow, which was cancelled Monday morning, according to Reuters.

But the Tokyo Marathon is an important attraction for Tokyo's tourism industry. Furthermore, it doesn't bode well for another high-profile sporting event: The 2020 Summer Olympics in Tokyo.

At this point, we suspect the biggest tail risk for global markets involving Japan would be a decision to cancel or postpone the Olympics (it's not like they can simply pick another venue).


-----------------

Facebook canceled a 5,000-person conference in San Francisco because of coronavirus
It’s the latest example of how the tech industry is reacting to worries about the virus’s spread.
Feb 14, 2020

https://www.vox.com/recode/2020/2/1...oogle-china-silicon-valley-tech-san-francisco

-----------------

How trade shows have been hit hard by coronavirus
14 February 2020

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51439403

From phones to watches, planes to jeans, some of the world's biggest trade exhibitions are being cancelled due to the coronavirus outbreak.

More and more organisers are pulling events over fears of spreading the potentially deadly disease, with many thousands of attendees having to alter travel plans.

The most high-profile cancellation so far has been the Mobile World Congress, in Barcelona, which was due to take place at the end of this month.
BT, Ericsson, Facebook, LG, Nokia, Sony and Vodafone were among the major brands visitors were hoping to see.

The event usually attracts more than 100,000 people, with an estimated 6,000 of them travelling from China.

It's not the only technology event that has been cancelled due to the outbreak.

Cisco Live, set to take place in Melbourne at the beginning of March, with more than 8,500 people expected to attend, has also been called off.

The annual get-together for the US networking firm normally puts customers in front of engineers and executives, has training sessions, and evening entertainment events. Networking about networking, if you will.

But a message on the event's website said: "Our customers, partners and employees are our top priority and we strongly believe this is the right decision given the current circumstances. Our thoughts are with those directly impacted by this situation."

While still going ahead, Asia's biggest air show, which is taking place this week, has been overshadowed by the outbreak.

The Singapore Airshow, which takes place every two years, attracts hundreds of global aerospace firms as they exhibit their latest products and hope to strike multi-million dollar deals.

The number of exhibitors pulling out of the show has topped 70, including some of the biggest names in the aerospace industry, including US giant Lockheed Martin and Canada's Bombardier.

"I've never seen it so quiet," said Jon Grevatt, Asia-Pacific defence industry analyst for military guide Jane's.

"Many of the companies that are here are on site without senior executives from the home countries attending. That means customer meetings and the normal industry chatter won't happen this year," he added.


"China took another step to boost its economy, with the People’s Bank of China cutting its one-year lending rate, as the country announced it may postpone its annual congress in March. China’s finance minister also said the country is planning targeted tax cuts. The Shanghai Composite SHCOMP, +2.28% surged over 2%."

That being exactly as predicted from the article I posted a link to yesterday. An excerpt from it:

First, a quick look at what the misleadingly titled Bloomberg article, which cited Liu, says it is far from the blanket "vow" of unconditional fiscal stimulus that one would conclude based on just reading the headline, as just two paragraphs in we read that "the nation will further perfect and implement measures this year to reduce corporate taxes and cut unnecessary government expenses."

For those confused, "cutting unnecessary government spending" is the opposite of the unlimited stimulus most investors hope for; in fact one can almost interpret it as a form of austerity with Chinese characteristics.


Chinese Banks Are Quarantining Cash, Destroying Potentially Contaminated Money
16 Feb 2020

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/chinese-banks-are-quarantining-cash-destroying-dirty-money

People’s Bank of China representatives said at a press conference on February 15 that currency deposited at banks must be disinfected with ultraviolet light and then held for a week or longer before being released back into the wilds of the economy. The Chinese central bank will provide new bills worth 600 billion yuan to banks. (Some of the currency will be destroyed.)

As I've previously posted, China has accidentally let the older SARS virus leak multiple times previously:

Senator Cotton: China Refusing To Hand Over Evidence About Wuhan BioLab
17 Feb 2020

Senator Tom Cotton says that China is refusing to hand over evidence concerning the bio-safety level 4 research lab in Wuhan despite a new report from biological scientists at the South China University of Technology saying it may have been the source of the coronavirus outbreak:

“Here is what we do know. This virus did not originate in the Wuhan animal market,” said Cotton.

“Epidemiologists who are widely respected from China published a study in the international journal Lancet have demonstrated that several of the original cases did NOT have any contact with that food market. The virus went into that food market before it came out of that food market. So we don’t know where it originated... We also know that only a few miles away from that market is China’s only bio-safety Level Four Super Laboratory that researches human infectious diseases.”

Cotton also accused China of consistently blocking American scientists from traveling to Wuhan to assist in discovering the origins of the virus.

A new report by scientists at the South China University of Technology in Guangzhou, China concludes that “the killer coronavirus probably originated from a laboratory in Wuhan.”

One of the laboratories named in the report which was conducting research on bat coronavirus was located just 280 meters from the site of the Wuhan meat market.


Coronavirus Slams Airbnb, Airlines, Hotels, Casinos, San Francisco, Other Hot Spots [he covers just effects on air travel and tourism]
Feb 16, 2020

 
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Winston

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China’s Hubei province in full lockdown
17 Feb 2020

 

WhiskyTangoFoxtrot

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Well, it ought to be interesting to see how the International Olympic Committee handles this. No Tokyo Olympics in 2020?
 

Peartree

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Well, it ought to be interesting to see how the International Olympic Committee handles this. No Tokyo Olympics in 2020?
The thing is, if they're going to cancel or postpone, they'll need to do it very soon. Athletes are already on training curves so that they can "peak" on those dates. Not to mention all of the passport/visa/ immunization/ legal issues that need to be overcome for each team to travel.
 

Winston

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https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1228435515776667649

Jennifer Zeng
@jenniferatntd
14 Feb 2020

This is really a bombshell. Naval University of Engineering in Wuhan, one of the five comprehensive military universities of PLA (official info: http://bit.ly/2URmJ5x) issued a lockdown notice on Jan. 2, 18 days BEFORE the gov. admitted there was an epidemic, 21 days BEFORE the city was locked down. Did the army know something beforehand that we didn't know?

English translation done for the official notice of Naval University of Engineering in Wuhan on Jan. 2:


 
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