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Ez2cDave

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China's Fatal Dilemma
10 Feb 2020

http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2020/02/chinas-fatal-dilemma.html

China faces an inescapably fatal dilemma: to save its economy from collapse, China's leadership must end the quarantines soon and declare China "safe for travel and open for business" to the rest of the world.

But since 5+ million people left Wuhan to go home for New Years, dispersing throughout China, the virus has likely spread to small cities, towns and remote villages with few if any coronavirus test kits and few medical facilities to administer the tests multiple times to confirm the diagnosis. (It can take multiple tests to confirm the diagnosis, as the first test can be positive and the second test negative.)

As a result, Chinese authorities cannot possibly know how many people already have the virus in small-town / rural China or how many asymptomatic carriers caught the virus from people who left Wuhan. They also cannot possibly know how many people with symptoms are avoiding the official dragnet by hiding at home.

If the virus has already been dispersed throughout China by asymptomatic carriers who left Wuhan without realizing they were infected with the pathogen, then regardless of whatever official assurances may be announced in the coming days/weeks, it won't be safe for foreigners to travel in China nor will it be safe for Chinese workers to return to factories, markets, etc.

But if China doesn't "open for business" with unrestricted travel soon, its economy will suffer calamitous declines as fragile mountains of debt and leverage collapse and supply chain disruptions push global corporations to find permanent alternatives elsewhere.


Here's the fatal dilemma: maintaining the quarantine long enough to truly contain it (which requires extending it to the entire country) will be fatal to China's economy.

But ending the limited quarantine and falsely proclaiming China safe for visitors and business travelers will only re-introduce the virus to workplaces and infect foreigners who will return home as asymptomatic carriers, spreading the virus in their home nations.

Falsely declaring China safe will endanger everyone credulous enough to believe Chinese officials, and destroy whatever thin shreds of credibility China may yet have in the global economy and community. That will set off chains of causality that will destroy China's economy just as surely as a three-month nationwide quarantine.

Who will be foolish enough to believe anything Chinese officials proclaim after foreigners who accepted the false assurances of safety return home with the coronavirus?

Anyone planning to receive goods via air freight from China might want to digest this report: "Persistence of coronaviruses on inanimate surfaces and its inactivation with biocidal agents" - Endemic human coronaviruses (HCoV) can persist on inanimate surfaces like metal, glass or plastic for up to 9 days:

https://www.journalofhospitalinfection.com/article/S0195-6701(20)30046-3/pdf

Air freight takes 12 to 24 hours, add another few hours for packaging, handling and last-mile delivery and that leaves 6+ days for the virus to spread to anyone who touches goods handled by an symptomatic carrier. Maybe the odds of catching the virus via surfaces are low, but maybe not. No one knows, including anyone rash enough to claim that the risk is negligible.
Communist China WILL LIE ABOUT THE STATUS of the Virus, in order to "RE-OPEN FOR BUSINESS" . . . Mark my words !

Dave F.
 

Winston

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It seems like the so-called "credentialed experts" missed the boat, again . . . Those labelled "Conspiracy Theorists" accurately called the 24 day incubation period, many days ago !

Dave F.
And even worse, huge viral loads found by one study in recovered patients may indicate that even they may need to be quarantined. Also, as I pointed out above, the WHO, perhaps thinking it would ease people's minds, made the point of saying that 80% of the infected only experience symptoms of a mild cold. However, if one thinks about that it means that people will think they only have a mild common cold and got to work, to the store, etc. Another study of 128 victims found that 41% of them were infected by going to the hospital and sitting among those who were infected. Also, as pointed out in the latest Real Prosperity video linked to above, some authority figure in Japan said it would be impractical or unreasonable to test all 3,700 passengers aboard the Diamond Princess which lead the video author to say that if that is the case for very wealthy and hi-tech Japan, what does that say about what China is doing or even can do.
 

Ez2cDave

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Anyone planning to receive goods via air freight from China might want to digest this report: "Persistence of coronaviruses on inanimate surfaces and its inactivation with biocidal agents" - Endemic human coronaviruses (HCoV) can persist on inanimate surfaces like metal, glass or plastic for up to 9 days:

https://www.journalofhospitalinfection.com/article/S0195-6701(20)30046-3/pdf


Air freight takes 12 to 24 hours, add another few hours for packaging, handling and last-mile delivery and that leaves 6+ days for the virus to spread to anyone who touches goods handled by an symptomatic carrier. Maybe the odds of catching the virus via surfaces are low, but maybe not. No one knows, including anyone rash enough to claim that the risk is negligible.
I am re-quoting Winston.

"Anyone planning to receive goods via air freight from China might want to digest this report: "Persistence of coronaviruses on inanimate surfaces and its inactivation with biocidal agents" - Endemic human coronaviruses (HCoV) can persist on inanimate surfaces like metal, glass or plastic for up to 9 days:

https://www.journalofhospitalinfection.com/article/S0195-6701(20)30046-3/pdf

Air freight takes 12 to 24 hours, add another few hours for packaging, handling and last-mile delivery and that leaves 6+ days for the virus to spread to anyone who touches goods handled by an symptomatic carrier. Maybe the odds of catching the virus via surfaces are low, but maybe not. No one knows, including anyone rash enough to claim that the risk is negligible."

END QUOTE :

The life you save might be your own, or a loved one's !

Dave F.
 

Winston

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Communist China WILL LIE ABOUT THE STATUS of the Virus, in order to "RE-OPEN FOR BUSINESS" . . . Mark my words !

Dave F.
However, as pointed out in the news blurbs, their workers ain't a'coming. If they order them to do so they don't even have remotely enough police to enforce that and if they call out the military to enforce that order before this has burnt itself out it will probably start all over again. Even if it doesn't it might inspire what the CCP fears the most - outright revolt - which might deter them from doing it in the first place. Like the column says - a fatal dilemma.

BTW, the DOD has just designated 11 more military facilities close to airports that can hold 50 people each in quarantine to supplement the large bases they've already designated that can hold more.
 
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Winston

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I am re-quoting Winston.

"Anyone planning to receive goods via air freight from China might want to digest this report: "Persistence of coronaviruses on inanimate surfaces and its inactivation with biocidal agents"
It's HIGHLY temperature dependent. Low temps and humidity greatly increase their longevity on surfaces. Normal temps can kill them fairly quickly.

That's one of the reasons why the winter season is the best for them. Think of the exterior door handle on that school, store, hospital, or doctor's office. Don't touch your face while out and make a habit of washing your hands with soap and water for at least 20 seconds after returning home. There's a study that proved that surfaces made of copper alloys like brass are near instant death to viruses. It literally rips them apart. But, of course, that's one regulation, brass plating on all exterior public door handles, that makes great sense... that we'll probably never see.

Let me give you a personal case. I went shopping for something other than food a few winters ago. I hadn't eaten, so I bought a candy bar with chocolate and ate it in the car heading somewhere else to shop. I accidentally touched the chocolate and thought about it, but ate the candy bar anyway. Within a day I had a horrible sore throat, my first illness of any kind in DECADES.
 
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rocket_troy

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Just going by the inquiries our company has made - I'm under the impression that air freight out of China is on hold as of at least last week (that was Friday's news). I think it's safe to assume that nothing has changed. Sea freight is still enabled, but there's a minimum 14 day time frame from port departure to port arrival mandated.
 

Ez2cDave

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And even worse, huge viral loads found by one study in recovered patients may indicate that even they may need to be quarantined.
Winston,

Does that imply that "Recovered Victims" remain "Carriers", still capable of spreading the virus ?

Dave F.
 

Winston

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Winston,

Does that imply that "Recovered Victims" remain "Carriers", still capable of spreading the virus ?

Dave F.
Very possibly and that is believed to be the likely reason why China ordered ASAP cremations for victims - a potential (NOT confirmed BTW) for infection even after death... just like with Ebola.
 

Winston

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Just going by the inquiries our company has made - I'm under the impression that air freight out of China is on hold as of at least last week (that was Friday's news). I think it's safe to assume that nothing has changed. Sea freight is still enabled, but there's a minimum 14 day time frame from port departure to port arrival mandated.
Interactive web page that shows cargo ship locations in real time:

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/centerx:97.9/centery:25.8/zoom:4

China's coronavirus disrupts global container shipping trade
7 Feb 2020

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/chi...ts-global-container-shipping-trade-2020-02-07

LONDON/LOS ANGELES, Feb 6 (Reuters) - China's fast-spreading coronavirus is throwing the global container shipping trade out of sync, with lines re-routing cargoes and reducing calls to Chinese ports, setting the scene for months of delivery delays ahead, industry sources said.

The spread of the deadly virus has shut down many cities and factories in China and disrupted global air travel.

Exports of goods from China have already been hit, with broader repercussions. Hyundai Motor has said it will suspend production in South Korea, its biggest manufacturing base, because of a lack of spare parts.

Shipping and trade sources say regular schedules are also being affected by truck and port workers in China stuck at home or away from their places of work. In addition, warehouses around dock areas in China are not fully working. This has led to ships being diverted from China to ports in South Korea.


Access concerning Chinese ports and shipyards: Update
The Korean Register issued a statement informing of the current situation in all Chinese ports and shipyards amid the coronavirus outbreak; The majority of the ports listed below prohibit any access, while some can be visited by acquiring permission from a local authority.
11 Feb 2020

https://safety4sea.com/access-concerning-chinese-ports-and-shipyards-update/
 

Ez2cDave

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Very possibly and that is believed to be the likely reason why China ordered ASAP cremations for victims - a potential (NOT confirmed BTW) for infection even after death... just like with Ebola.
Winston,

By "Recovered Victims", I meant Survivors of the Virus.

Dave F.
 

Winston

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Winston,

By "Recovered Victims", I meant Survivors of the Virus.

Dave F.
Yes, I know. My mention of the ASAP cremation order was because it was likely caused by fear of the remaining viral load in victims including recovered ones. It's a back door clue that it is a persistent viral load that they're worried about. However, they can only deal with the dead ones since they're overwhelmed even by the living ones and to worry about quarantining even recovered victims is more than they can deal with or probably even want to think about. It might be a case of release the recovered to self-quarantine.
 

Winston

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China Still Mostly Closed Down as Virus Deaths Pass 1,000
11 Feb 2020

https://www.usnews.com/news/world/a...death-toll-from-virus-tops-100-for-first-time

Excerpt:

GLOBAL FLOW OF MAIL DISRUPTED

Postal operators in the United States, China, Singapore and elsewhere said the suspension of flights to slow the virus spread was having a major impact on the global flow of letters and parcels.

The United States Postal Service informed its counterparts around the world on Tuesday that it was “experiencing significant difficulties” in dispatching letters, parcels and express mail to China, including Hong Kong and Macau, because airlines have suspended flights to those destinations.

It said in the note that ”until sufficient transport capacity becomes available,”it would no longer accept mail from other countries that transits via USPS to China, Hong Kong and Macau. That would start immediately, the note said. The Postal Service told AP that hiatus only affected transit mail and not letters and parcels posted in the United States.

The Universal Postal Union, a U.N. agency for postal cooperation between its 192 member countries, said the flight suspensions would impact mail delivery “for the foreseeable future.”

The Chinese mail service, China Post, said it was disinfecting postal offices, processing centers and vehicles to ensure the virus doesn't spread via the mail and to protect postal staff.

The virus does “not survive for long on objects. It is therefore safe to receive postal items from China," China Post said.
 

Winston

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Wuhan, China’s Domestic Trade Hub

https://www.prologis.com/industrial...ce/asia/china/wuhan-chinas-domestic-trade-hub

The bustling city of Wuhan is the capital of the Hubei province and Central China’s most populous city with a population of 9.8 million. It is also a political, economic, financial, cultural and educational center in the middle of China. Major industries include optical-electronics, automobile, iron and steel manufacturing. It’s also seeing growth in the pharmaceutical sector, biotech and environmental protection. The city’s GDP is pretty evenly divided between its industrial and service sectors.

Wuhan has many higher learning institutions, including the well- reputed Wuhan University and Huazhong University of Science and Technology. Three state-level development zones and many new business incubators are also significant aspects of Wuhan’s economic environment. Wuhan ranks third in China in overall strength of science and technology.

With almost 6,000 enterprises from over 80 countries, Wuhan has attracted a great deal of foreign investment. There are about 50 French companies operating in the city, representing over a third of France’s investment in China.


Focus on Wuhan, China

https://www.tradecommissioner.gc.ca/china-chine/market-facts-faits-sur-le-marche/96289.aspx?lang=eng

Wuhan, the capital of Hubei province,is the most populous city in central China. In 2015 it has a population of 10.60 million residing in three distinct districts (Hankou, Hanyang, and Wuchang), commonly known as “The Three Towns of Wuhan”. The city is recognized as the political, economic, financial, cultural, educational, and transportation centre of central China.

While Wuhan has for decades been a traditional base for manufacturing, it has also become one of the areas promoting modern industrial change. Wuhan consists of three national development zones, four scientific and technologic development parks, over 350 research institutes, 1,656 hi-tech enterprises, numerous enterprise incubators and investments from 230 Fortune Global 500 firms – enabling the city to offer globally competitive strengths in most business fields. By combining traditional industries such as automobile manufacturing, the starting point of China's economic liberalization, with new hi-tech industries in places like the Optics Valley, Wuhan is positioning itself as one of the most progressive business cities in all of Asia.

Business Environment

Wuhan possesses strong economic and regional advantages. It connects the east with the west, channels the north to the south, and links rivers with seas by means of its developed infrastructure in water, land and air traffic.

Important metropolises in China, including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Chengdu, and Xi’an, are all within 1,200 km of Wuhan, home to the largest inland port in the country and the gateway to the Three Gorges Project – the development of a hydroelectric dam in the Yangtze River. Benefitting from its strategic position in central China, Wuhan naturally became a hub for the efficient distribution of products for many industries.

Major industries in Wuhan include modern manufacturing (automotive, steel and iron manufacturing) and high-tech industries (including opto-electronic technology, pharmaceutical, biology engineering, new material industry, and environmental protection). Wuhan’s Dongfeng Motor Corporation is the third largest automaker in China. It has joint ventures with firms such as Honda, Nissan and French carmaker PSA Peugeot-Citroen. In 2014, Dongfeng sold more than 3.53 million vehicles. In addition to a strong industrial base, Wuhan is also ranked third in China for its comprehensive scientific and educational strength.

Overall, Wuhan is enjoying substantial growth:

Wuhan’s GDP reached RMB1,090.56 billion (USD $156.5 billion) in 2015, with a YoY increase of 8.8%. GDP per capita reached approximately RMB 104,132 (USD $16,528).

Wuhan’s GDP in 2015 ranked 1st in major cities in Central China and 8th among 100 major cities in China. It is a city with great potential.
 

Winston

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Harvard Gazette - 11 Feb 2020
Coronavirus likely now ‘gathering steam’

https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/st...says-coronavirus-likely-just-gathering-steam/

Leaky international cordon may mean equivalent of worst flu season in modern times

The number of confirmed cases of the Wuhan coronavirus have continued to surge inside China, sickening tens of thousands, with a death toll of more than 1,000. But outside the Asian giant the numbers remain a fraction of that, a trend Harvard’s Marc Lipsitch views with suspicion. Lipsitch thinks it is just a matter of time before the virus spreads widely internationally, which means nations so far only lightly hit should prepare for its eventual arrival in force and what may seem like the worst flu season in modern times. Lipsitch, professor of epidemiology at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and head of the School’s Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics, talked to the Gazette about recent developments in the outbreak and provided a look ahead.


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Here's a book which took three years to write because of the difficulty of finding information on the topic. Since the early 2000s, we can no longer make penicillin or even aspirin in the US. 97% of US generic drugs are made in China. 80% of drugs used worldwide are made in China. China dumped them into markets worldwide to bankrupt domestic producers. The author has long made this well known to your government as well as the US media - NOTHING was or is being done about:

China Rx: Exposing the Risks of America's Dependence on China for Medicine Hardcover – April 17, 2018

https://www.amazon.com/China-Rx-Exposing-Americas-Dependence/dp/1633883817/

Millions of Americans are taking prescription drugs made in China and don't know it--and pharmaceutical companies are not eager to tell them. This is a disturbing, well-researched wake-up call for improving the current system of drug supply and manufacturing.Several decades ago, penicillin, vitamin C, and many other prescription and over-the-counter products were manufactured in the United States. But with the rise of globalization, antibiotics, antidepressants, birth control pills, blood pressure medicines, cancer drugs, among many others are made in China and sold in the United States. China's biggest impact on the US drug supply is making essential ingredients for thousands of medicines found in American homes and used in hospital intensive care units and operating rooms. The authors convincingly argue that there are at least two major problems with this scenario. First, it is inherently risky for the United States to become dependent on any one country as a source for vital medicines, especially given the uncertainties of geopolitics. For example, if an altercation in the South China Sea causes military personnel to be wounded, doctors may rely upon medicines with essential ingredients made by the adversary. Second, lapses in safety standards and quality control in Chinese manufacturing are a risk. Citing the concerns of FDA officials and insiders within the pharmaceutical industry, the authors document incidents of illness and death caused by contaminated medications that prompted reform. This probing book examines the implications of our reliance on China on the quality and availability of vital medicines.
 

Winston

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DHHS was warned about this by the last US mask manufacturer in 2007 and has done nothing except talk about it since:

U.S. Pandemic Could Severely Strain Face Mask, Other PPE Supply Pipeline
October 4, 2008

https://www.infectioncontroltoday.c...ly-strain-face-mask-other-ppe-supply-pipeline

Masks will be needed to limit or prevent human-to-human transmission of influenza among healthcare providers and members of the general public. And that’s where it becomes dicey. In the past decade, most U.S. face mask sellers have moved their manufacturing operations overseas [uh, that would be TO CHINA - W]. A handful of U.S.-based manufacturers remain [only one N95 mask manufacturer - W], and they cannot produce enough masks to protect Americans during an impending pandemic.

The DHHS recognizes that an inadequate stockpile of face masks and other items of personal protective equipment (PPE) could pose a national security threat. How bad could it get?

Chettle paints a picture for us: “In a severe pandemic, millions of desperately ill people needing hospitalization will quickly overwhelm the healthcare system to the point of collapse. There will be an immediate shortage of hospital beds; critical supplies (surgical gloves, masks, gowns, IV bags, and antibiotics); and trained staff to care for patients. For example, in the U.S., there are about 965,300 staffed hospital beds — not nearly enough. During the peak week of a pandemic, the following numbers of staffed beds and ventilators would be needed in the U.S. for influenza patients alone: 191 percent of current non-ICU beds, 461 percent of ICU beds, 198 percent of all available ventilators. Projections of hospitalizations are only estimates. However, the gap between our current resources and our needs is staggering. These numbers assume that 25 percent to 30 percent of the U.S. population will fall sick and that illnesses will be spaced over eight weeks. It is expected that even in the peak weeks of a pandemic, no more than 10 percent of a community’s population will be ill at any one time.”

Chettle adds, “For the healthcare providers who do care for patients with pandemic influenza, the risk of infection is likely to be significantly increased by a lack of PPE. Supply chain problems are expected to develop once a pandemic begins, and most hospitals, with their ‘just-in-time’ delivery of supplies, have not stockpiled PPE. Without N95 masks, goggles, and gloves, will HCWs put themselves at risk taking care of infectious patients?”
 

Ez2cDave

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Things are getting much worse and China is "doubling-down" on secrecy. Obviously, they are hiding something serious here !

Dave F.
 

Winston

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It's nearly impossible to find anything about whether China is actually going back to work. However, judging from this article from today in Bejing, 1000 km away from the Wuhan epicenter, they aren't so much.

Note that the touted "decline in the growth rate of cases" in the news is most likely due to the fact that on 7 Feb, conveniently three days before the end of the postponed end to the Lunar New Year when everyone was to return to work, China changed the definition of confirmed infected from those who test positive to those who test positive AND show symptoms.

Which leads to this desired effect:

Stocks trade in record territory as growth of new COVID-19 coronavirus cases slows
12 Feb 2020

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/s...ber-of-new-coronavirus-cases-falls-2020-02-12

In reality:

'A whole country locked inside': China struggles with coronavirus, and a new normal
People in Beijing are subject to roadblocks, health checks
Feb 12, 2020

https://www.cbc.ca/news/a-whole-cou...s-with-coronavirus-and-a-new-normal-1.5460806

For almost three weeks, Beijing has been a ghost town, eerily empty from Tiananmen Square to its freeway-like ring roads.

People are just starting to trickle back after China's listless Lunar New Year holidays, extended this year to keep them from spreading the coronavirus further through travel and a return to work.

"I can feel how serious it is," said Jin Yang, on his first day back as a foreign exchange worker. "I've never experienced anything like it."

Iconic attractions like the Forbidden City are shuttered, subways largely unridden, malls and airports avoided. Schools and universities have been closed indefinitely.

At some of the restaurants and stores that are open, masked shopkeepers hand you your purchase at the door to limit contact.

Indeed, the entire megacity of more than 20 million people echoes with the epidemic.

The virus's epicentre may be a thousand kilometres south in the province of Hubei, where more than 60 million people are locked down by decree, but the nervousness has spread to the capital and engulfed the whole country.

Residents have built improvised barricades out of bamboo sticks, traffic barriers and even bikes piled high and chained together around their compounds. Signs warn strangers away, especially those from the infected city of Wuhan.

"I'm upset and worried about the virus," said Liu Likun, reached by video chat inside his apartment.

He and his wife have locked the door, stocked the fridge and sent their three-year-old son to stay with grandparents in a village outside Beijing.
Indeed, daily life everywhere is improvised or suspended. Most office workers do their jobs online or on the phone from home. Many factories and workshops are idle, despite government attempts to keep the economy from stalling completely.

Officials armed with thermometers look for high fever, the tell-tale sign of infection and a sure trigger for testing and quarantine in today's China, whether or not coronavirus is to blame.

In some areas, police officers in hazmat suits have been going door to door, looking for the infected and the suspected. They act on tips from neighbours and then — as online videos have shown — squads arrive to forcefully remove entire families and send them off to quarantine in police vans.
Is all of this really necessary?

"Probably," said Ian Lipkin, an American epidemiologist who has been in Beijing to advise the Chinese government on how to handle the coronavirus epidemic.

Mass lockdowns on this scale are unprecedented, he said, and it's unclear if they will work.

"We don't have anything else to offer at present," Lipkin said. "This is really the most transmissible virus that I've seen in many, many years."


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This Is What Happened After One Chinese Company Rushed To Reopen After The Corona-Chaos
12 Feb 2020

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/wh...nese-company-rushed-reopen-after-corona-chaos

Today, two days after China officially returned to work, we got the first confirmation of just how catastrophic Beijing's order to local enterprises and businesses to rush back reboot the economy could be, when Jennifer Zeng reported that a company in Suzhou reopened, and immediately at least one CoVid2019 case was found. As a result, the company's 200+ employees couldn't go home and were immediately placed under quarantine:

https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1227637324965646336

This is just the first such case. Expect many more - especially across Hubei and its neighboring provinces - as latent cases of Coronavirus which were never caught and cured spark new infections and mini epidemics, all of which will be dutifully captured in a smartphone clip for everyone in China to watch and freak out even more.

Which reminds us of another comment from Rabobank, which last week explained why the dilemma facing China is "truly awful":

"The quandary for China between releasing the quarantine straitjacket in days to stop its economy from getting truly sick, and allowing a virus like this to spread further as people start to mingle again is truly awful. There are no good options. For a world with a serious lack of final end-demand, and which has been relying on China, along with increasingly “Chinese” central banks, this is going to be a nasty shock either way that Mr Market is treating like he is Mr Magoo."

And since Beijing has no way out, especially since the epidemic is still raging despite Beijing's "doctored", no pun intended, infection and death numbers, expect China to unleash the most draconian censorship crackdown on any reports Covid-2019 has not only not been purged but is making unwelcome appearances across China's enterprises, which will be quietly put under blanket quarantine even as Beijing pretends that all is well and its economy is once again humming on all cylinders until eventually the epidemic reaches a critical mass and China has no choice but to once again admit the full extent of the social and economic fallout. And just like in the case of SARS, don't expect such "honesty" to emerge for at least several weeks if not months.


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China to take private property to fight coronavirus
Factories ordered to mass-produce body bags
Many big tech companies withdrawing from large international business events

 

Winston

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HUGE jump in China cases. Either there was a shortage of test kits that has now been remedied or someone in the chain of information saw the potential catastrophe from the CCP's Xi pushing everyone back to work and what we are seeing now is closer to the true figures being provided in order to prevent issues like the one tweeted example from yesterday. A business whose 200 employees returned to work found at least one infected person among them. Now all 200 of those employees are in quarantine.

See the huge jump here:

https://covid19info.live/

CDC briefing from yesterday:

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) update to media on the COVID-19 response.
Nancy Messonnier, M.D., Director, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases
11:30 am. ET Wednesday, February 12, 2020

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/a0212-cdc-telebriefing-covid-19.html

My summary:

30,000 people have returned to the US from China to date through the designated screening airports since screening began. Note those screenings began well after the outbreak had actually begun in China. The "screening" consists of:

- You will be asked about your health and travel.
- Your health will be screened for fever, cough, or trouble breathing.

CDC gave the definite impression that they fully expect community outbreaks in the US. Looking at those 30,000 returnees and the "screening" process, I don't doubt that one bit.

Test kits recently sent to all US state labs are not producing expected results. An out-of-spec reagent is suspected and will be replaced. (Made in China? I'm only half-kidding considering how dependent we are on them as previously posted.) So, COVID-19 cases cannot be confirmed locally yet. All samples must be sent to the CDC for testing. Even after state-level testing is implemented, samples will be sent to CDC for confirmation.

EDIT: Just read that the (not referenced to source) reason for the jump is a change in who is counted as confirmed infected, perhaps moving away from the stupid 7 Feb 2020 change which required that not only would designating cases as confirmed require a positive test, but they would also be required to be showing symptoms.
 
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Winston

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https://www.zerohedge.com/health/hu...ince-clients-nothing-fed-here-infections-soar

...here is what [Andrew at] Goldman[-Sachs] said this morning to put its clients' minds at ease:

"A large increase in Hubei virus cases due to definition change: News media reported a very sharp rise in the number of confirmed coronavirus (Covid-19) cases in Hubei province as of February 12: an increase of 14,840 vs. 1,638 the previous day. The jump stems from a loosening in the requirements for a confirmed case. Previously, a positive lab test for Covid-19 was required for a case to be considered confirmed in Hubei. Now, either a positive lab test or a positive clinical test (e.g. medical imaging-based) is sufficient. According to data on a Hubei government website, 13,332 of the 14,840 cases reported today for Hubei were added because of this loosening in the definition. Our understanding is that this definitional change has been made in Hubei province only and is one-off.

"Separately, China’s national health service issued an updated document on February 9th that tightened the definition of a new confirmed case in provinces other than Hubei slightly. Specifically, they require a person exhibit symptoms in addition to having a positive test for the virus. News media reported that a northeastern province cut the number of total confirmed cases slightly due to this definitional change.

"Therefore, today’s jump in the number of Hubei confirmed cases does not imply a renewed acceleration in the spread of Covid-19, based on the available information and our understanding of it.

Yet not even Goldman has the temerity to conclude its "analysis" without suggesting that it may - once again - be dead wrong in minimizing the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, and Tilton concludes by saying that "it's theoretically possible that we could see other changes to the case definition in Hubei or other provinces again in the future."

In other words, dear China, please no more "case definition changes" that will reveal the full extent of the pandemic, which now even the White House is convinced is being underrepresented by over 100,000.
 

KILTED COWBOY

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The article says the regime is denying any cases of corona in the hermit kingdom.
But experts are skeptical as they share a very porous border with China.
If they do have it, they do not have the health infrastructure to control it.
The whole country could go down the tubes.
South Korea needs to be very nervous.
https://www.foxnews.com/health/north...s-cases-expert
 

Winston

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Even China's state-controlled press is beginning to sound alarmist as it becomes increasingly clear that the epidemic is anything but 'contained'. The following tweet serves the purpose of making sure people are wearing protective gear... assuming they can get their hands on some. For that purpose they actually have to admit how contagious the virus is:

https://twitter.com/GlobalTimesBiz/status/1227924587511341057

How contagious is the deadly #coronavirus? It could take a mere 2 seconds for someone to contract it in areas with high concentration of the virus if they're not wearing protective gear: Wang Guiqiang, doctor of infectious diseases in Beijing. #COVID19

Here are a few photos from that same Chinese propaganda news source Global Times, much unlike the empty shelves shown in other tweets which is what probably exists 1 minute after these photos were taken. Also, I'll bet these photos were taken in some major city not badly affected by the virus and NOT in Wuhan. Note that the tweet has ONE retweet and no responses:

https://twitter.com/GlobalTimesBiz/status/1227963134817603584

How do people in #Wuhan get groceries under a city-wide lockdown? Each family sends a person every three days to buy groceries from supermarkets full of donated goods with prices lower than normal market levels.





13 Feb 2020 tweets from a NON-governmental source:

https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1227973170453516298

A banner somewhere in #China: "We'll break you legs if you dare go out; We'll knock your teeth off if you dare talk back." One of the many scenes during #CoronavirusOutbreak. #COVID2019 #Coronavirus #CoronavirusOutbreak #coronaviruschina



Another tweet from same source:

https://twitter.com/jenniferatntd/status/1227954706808483840

War Time Status Declared by #Beijing CDC to ensure wartime standards for enforcement of awareness, quarantine, material supply, management and control, disciplines, etc. [part of that order detailed in the first video below is create 100,000 beds by 20 Feb - W]

Very informative video linked below. As of 10 Feb 18,000 medical staff have gone to Wuhan to help. Need to wonder why China isn't letting any Western teams into that area?

Many infected with coronavirus after thousands shared meals; Funeral homes in Wuhan overloaded
13 Feb 2020


Another very informative video:

CDC: We Absolutely Assume The Reported Cases in China Are An Underestimate
11 Feb 2020


On the "China's back to work BS", in another video which is not otherwise worth posting, the author said that he read in the South China Morning Post that only 5% of workers have shown up for work in a major industrial province.

Also:

Foxconn Denies Reuters Reports On Factory Restart In China

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/foxconn-denies-reuters-reports-factory-restart-china

Foxconn denied a report that it plans to resume over half its production by the end of February, as the Covid-19 outbreak worsens.

The report via Reuters noted that 50% of Foxconn's production would come back online by the end of the month, and the aim for full production for next month. This sent Apple shares to near record highs this week; however, Foxconn ruined the party and said Reuters was incorrect about plant resumptions.

The statement by the world's largest contract electronics maker was published via the Taipei stock exchange on Thursday, and first cited by Reuters.
 

Winston

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The Novel Coronavirus, 2019-nCoV, is Highly Contagious and More Infectious Than Initially Estimated
5 Feb 2020

Affiliations:

- 1T-6 Theoretical Biology and Biophysics, Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, NM87544, USA.
- 2T-CNLS Center for Nonlinear Studies, Los Alamos National Laboratory, NM87544, USA.
- 3CCS-3 Information Sciences Group, Computer, Computational and Statistical Sciences Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87545, USA
- 4EES-14 Earth Systems Observations Group, Earth and Environmental Sciences Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87545, USA


https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1.full.pdf

Abstract

The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is a recently emerged human pathogen that has spread widely since January 2020. Initially, the basic reproductive number, R0, was estimated to be 2.2 to 2.7. Here we provide a new estimate of this quantity. We collected extensive individual case reports and estimated key epidemiology parameters, including the incubation period. Integrating these estimates and high-resolution real-time human travel and infection data with mathematical models, we estimated that the number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6. We further show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus.
 

Ez2cDave

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The novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is a recently emerged human pathogen that has spread widely since January 2020. Initially, the basic reproductive number, R0, was estimated to be 2.2 to 2.7. Here we provide a new estimate of this quantity. We collected extensive individual case reports and estimated key epidemiology parameters, including the incubation period. Integrating these estimates and high-resolution real-time human travel and infection data with mathematical models, we estimated that the number of infected individuals during early epidemic double every 2.4 days, and the R0 value is likely to be between 4.7 and 6.6. We further show that quarantine and contact tracing of symptomatic individuals alone may not be effective and early, strong control measures are needed to stop transmission of the virus.
South Korean hospital successfully treats coronavirus patient with HIV drugs

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-...navirus-patient-with-HIV-drugs/7311581567740/

**************************************************************************************
Desperate for coronavirus solutions, Chinese turn to HIV drugs, gray market and traditional cures

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ay-market-and-traditional-cures-idUSKBN2000HA
 

Sooner Boomer

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The article says the regime is denying any cases of corona in the hermit kingdom.
But experts are skeptical as they share a very porous border with China.
If they do have it, they do not have the health infrastructure to control it.
The whole country could go down the tubes.
South Korea needs to be very nervous.
https://www.foxnews.com/health/north...s-cases-expert
One thing that may limit the spread of the virus, when it does come to N. Korea, is the lack of transportation, esp. long distance transportation for the masses. If an outbreak occurs, it will likely be limited by this. It's thought that Ebola was similarly limited, in that an infected person would die brfore walking to the next village. Not good if you're stuck in a hot zone and want to get out...
 

Winston

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South Korean hospital successfully treats coronavirus patient with HIV drugs
Yes, I heard that in a video and Hatfill pointed out that the HIV-like RNA segment is found in a number of different viruses, so it makes sense that HIV meds might help. On the vaccine front, bad news. A SARS vaccine caused AIDS-like auto-immune reactions in the test animals infected with SARS-CoV-2 (formerly 2019-nCoV) which is where the body attacks its own cells. That reaction was worse than what it was trying to cure.
 

Winston

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I've seen these same techniques previously used to show that China was probably lying about it's rate of economic growth.

BTW, I've found an "Open IP" video camera site that has THOUSANDS of US based cameras but only 21 Chinese cameras to view through, none of them traffic cams, and they're all cr*p views. The Chinese are damned good with their national firewall. Traffic cams would be fantastic to use to see what's really going on, but the traffic congestion graphs shown below are OK, too.

China Has Ground To A Halt: "On The Ground" Indicators Confirm Worst-Case Scenario
13 Feb 2020

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics...ground-indicators-confirm-worst-case-scenario

Back on Monday, when analysts and investors were desperately seeking clues whether China has managed to reboot its economy from the 2-week long hiatus following the Lunar New Year/Coronavirus pandemic amid the information blackout unleashed by the communist party in the already opaque country, we pointed out some alternative ways to keep tabs of what is really taking place "on the ground" in China, where Xi Jinping has been urging local businesses and workers to reopen and resume output, while ignoring the risk the viral pandemic poses to them (with potentially catastrophic consequences).

Specifically, Morgan Stanley suggested that real time measurements of Chinese pollution levels would provide a "quick and dirty" (no pun intended) way of observing if any of China's major metropolises had returned back to normal. What it found was that among some of the top Chinese cities including Guangzhou, Shanghai and Chengdu, a clear pattern was evident – air pollution was only 20-50% of the historical average. As Morgan Stanley concluded, "This could imply that human activities such as traffic and industrial production within/close to those cities are running 50-80% below their potential capacity."


Coal consumption:



Vehicle traffic:

City in second hardest hit province:





#BREAKING: Shanghai has banned people and cars from entering the city starting at 00:00 on February 14 in order to put the #CoronavirusOutbreak under control. — Ezra Cheung (@ezracheungtoto) February 13, 2020 [Makes it kind of hard for people to return to work there from the holiday, but that's the point, and it sure puts the lie to the stock market preserving "China returns to work" propaganda. - W]



The virus epicenter and hardest hit:

 
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