Coronavirus Outbreak

Discussion in 'The Watering Hole' started by Winston, Jan 26, 2020.

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  1. Feb 1, 2020 #121

    Ez2cDave

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    Two big problem areas to watch are India ( slums, poor sanitation, dense population, etc) and Thailand ( "Sex-Trade" headquarters of the world, featuring underage girls, filthy conditions, etc )

    If it gets loose there, it will spread like wildfire !

    Tight Lines !
     
  2. Feb 1, 2020 #122

    dhbarr

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    In this thread: people who don't understand how confirmation bias works.
     
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  3. Feb 2, 2020 #123

    Ez2cDave

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    How do you know that your sources are accurate, simply because of who agrees or disagrees with them ?

    Your sources may well have biases of their own and you, yourself, are subject to confirmation bias, as well.

    Can you independently prove the information you post, without quoting the works of others ? I think not !

    https://www.dailywire.com/news/chin...l-65-million-u-s-evacuation-underway-in-china

    Confirmation Bias : "Confirmation bias is the tendency to search for, interpret, favor, and recall information in a way that confirms or strengthens one's prior personal beliefs or hypotheses.[1] It is a type of cognitive bias. People display this bias when they gather or remember information selectively, or when they interpret it in a biased way. The effect is stronger for desired outcomes, for emotionally charged issues, and for deeply-entrenched beliefs."

    Dave F.
     
  4. Feb 2, 2020 #124

    KC3KNM

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  5. Feb 2, 2020 #125

    Ez2cDave

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    Your response might have been relevant, if you were the person I quoted . . . You were not.

    Dave F.
     
  6. Feb 2, 2020 #126

    KC3KNM

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    Judging by the response it seems like I made some pretty good points. :D
     
  7. Feb 2, 2020 #127

    Ez2cDave

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    Last edited by a moderator: Feb 3, 2020
  8. Feb 2, 2020 #128

    scadaman29325

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  9. Feb 2, 2020 #129

    cerving

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  10. Feb 2, 2020 #130

    Winston

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    [​IMG]
    From:

    https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1223774570043232256

    Bodies of nCoV2019 victims should be cremated close by and immediately. Burials or transfer of the bodies not allowed. Funerals not allowed to avoid spread of the virus - [China] National Health Commission

    Animated GIF from satellite images of hospital construction:

    https://twitter.com/CGTNOfficial/status/1223836011643322368

    Wuhan's makeshift hospital built for treating pneumonia patients infected with the novel coronavirus completed Sunday morning; the hospital will officially start services from Monday.

     
  11. Feb 3, 2020 #131

    shreadvector

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  12. Feb 3, 2020 #132

    cwbullet

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    I am 100% certain the numbers will go up. I almost as certain that it will not pass influenza.

    “Spreads like Flu”? So does the common cold and multiple others viruses. Just so everyone knows, SARS, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) and the current Coronavirus are all Coronaviruses. Coronavirus is a family of viruses that induce cold like symptoms are most os us have had at least one of these before. The current novel virus, MERS, and SARS have a higher rate of death in certain groups that would likely also have a bad outcome to Influenza. The preexisting illness such as asthma combined with the viral illness is what is causing most of the deaths. Influenza would have produced the same results.
     
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  13. Feb 3, 2020 #133

    heada

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    I don't think we in the US have much to worry about for this. Steps were put in place early enough to help contain it and we're getting in front of it fast enough to track and test for it so the spread is minimal.

    That said, if it were to break containment efforts and become wild in the states, it could easily surpass influenza both in infection counts and in deaths. Influenza has a replication rate of 1.28 and this is somewhere between 2 and 4. Influenza has a death rate of 0.1% and this is about 3%. There also is no vaccine for it whereas there is for influenza so herd immunity is limited. I'm not concerned now but it is something to track and take efforts to contain.
     
  14. Feb 3, 2020 #134

    Winston

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    Spreads far worse than flu. Ro (number infected by infected person) is up to 4.08 by one study, but another study that used statistical analysis of data from all studies comes up with 3.1. Still very bad. Common flu Ro is around 1.28. The huge problem for China is that 5 million people left Wuhan for the Lunar New Year holiday before the quarantine as well as when quarantine was likely or rumored. That's why I think the chance of anything even remotely similar here is virtually nil since the right things are being done. Unfortunately, a risk of postmortem spread (like Ebola) is now suspected and asymptomatic transfer confirmed.

    "Old" analysis I just found. Postmortem and asymptomatic spread not covered by it.

    Harvard epidemiologist says coronavirus is "thermonuclear pandemic level bad"
    25 Jan 2020

    https://disrn.com/news/harvard-epidemiologist-says-coronavirus-is-thermonuclear-pandemic-level-bad
     
    Last edited: Feb 3, 2020
  15. Feb 3, 2020 #135

    Winston

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    Great 2019-nCoV "real time" interactive infographic sites:

    https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

    https://wuflu.live/

    Chinese government orders virus corpses burned ‘immediately’
    3rd Feb 2020

    https://www.thechronicle.com.au/news/virus-corpses-burned-immediately/3935702/

    https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1223774570043232256

    Bodies of #nCoV2019 victims should be cremated close by and immediately. Burials or transfer of the bodies not allowed. Funerals not allowed to avoid spread of the virus: [China] National Health Commission

    That would be due to a fear of postmortem transmission, a fear which is probably based on the huge post-symptomatic (not postmortem) viral load found in a German study discussed here:

     
  16. Feb 3, 2020 #136

    Winston

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    Not enough beds. Sent home to likely die while infecting more people. No wonder they built a hospital in days. Same thing would happen here if hit by a similar outbreak (which I seriously doubt we will be). We only have 20 ICUs per 100,000 population and consider that many of them are currently occupied.

    China Censors Top Local Media Outlet Over Claims Beijing Is Underreporting Cases, Deaths
    2 Feb 2020

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopoliti...g-accusing-it-underreporting-cases-and-deaths

    Let's be honest, do you think China is reporting the actual coronavirus cases and deaths? After all, Beijing has been the master of falsifying its economic growth figures for years, what makes you think they'll change in the reporting of the deadly virus outbreak?

    Balaji S. Srinivasan, angel investor and entrepreneur, also former CTO of Coinbase, tweeted Saturday that a top news organization in China, Caijing, had one of their articles (1 Feb 2020) banned by Beijing after it noted Chinese officials were significantly underreporting coronavirus confirmed cases and deaths, especially among the elderly.


    Balaji S. Srinivasan
    @balajis

    Caijing is one of the most reputable outlets in China. Their article on the #coronavirus was censored today. It claims significant underreporting of both cases & deaths, especially among the elderly.

    Translation:

    https://t.co/7rM69CWPkF?amp=1

    Excerpts:

    "Finance" recently interviewed more than 10 families of patients, most families infected with the whole family, they also help the elderly, pregnant women in various hospitals. "The hospital told us that we can only save ourselves." Several family members of patients told the Caijing reporter that their families were on the front line of life and death.

    A department director of a designated hospital told the Caijing reporter that there were about 120 fever patients a day in the outpatient clinic of these two days, about 80 of whom had lung infections, but only 5 of them might eventually be admitted to the hospital.

    "We can only let the remaining 75 patients who can't get in go home." The director told the Caijing reporter.

    On January 26, 2020, the Liu Mei family received a cremation note. Her mother-in-law, a 73-year-old man, died of breathing at home and was rushed to the hospital.

    Liu Mei told the Caijing reporter that the elderly had symptoms of suspected new type of coronavirus pneumonia on January 21, and the diagnosis results showed that the lung was highly infected in the fourth hospital of Wuhan. However, the old man has not been admitted to several hospitals, and can only isolate himself at home until his illness.

    After the old man was taken to the ambulance, the family never saw her (him) again. All they received was a cremation note, indicating that the cause of the death of the elderly was: viral pneumonia. However, according to family members, the death of the elderly was not included in the number of confirmed deaths from new coronary pneumonia-because she (he) did not qualify for hospitalization and was not diagnosed with new coronary pneumonia until her (his) death.

    The old man hastily passed away, no decent packing, no farewell by his family, and the ashes are still in the funeral parlour.
     
    Last edited: Feb 3, 2020
  17. Feb 4, 2020 #137

    Ez2cDave

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  18. Feb 4, 2020 #138

    Cnorm

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    "Not on their best day . . . China is lying, intentionally and premeditatedly.

    They want to conceal the true source of this outbreak, which is NOT the "wet market" ( Seafood Market ), at all costs.

    If I laid out all of the "applicable circumstances", people would start hollering "conspiracy theory" . . . Well, when all the pieces fit, theory becomes fact, doesn't it ?

    Dave F."

    You’ve established the following facts from reliable news sources:
    • China is lying about the source of the virus. It’s a bio weapon.
    • China is also lying about the number of infected and dying. It’s significantly more than they’re saying.
    • China is struggling to keep up with the disease. They lack the facilities to even house infected patients.
    • Coronavirus has already spread to the U.S.
    Now what? What are Dave F.’s next steps? How do you plan to protect yourself and your loved ones from the inevitable tsunami of illness and death that will sweep across America?
     
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2020
  19. Feb 4, 2020 #139

    dr wogz

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  20. Feb 4, 2020 #140

    Cnorm

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  21. Feb 4, 2020 #141

    Winston

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  22. Feb 4, 2020 #142

    Winston

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    Steven Hatfill, a former US bioweapons defense biologist who has looked in detail into the studies thus far disagrees.
     
  23. Feb 4, 2020 #143

    Winston

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    Coronavirus: How does this outbreak end?
    The new coronavirus outbreak may just be beginning. Epidemiologists outline three broad scenarios for how it could end.
    31 Jan 2020

    https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/1/31/21115109/coronavirus-outbreak-end-sars-comparison?

    1) The spread of the virus gets under control through public health interventions
    2) The virus burns itself out after it infects all or most of the people most susceptible to it
    3) Coronavirus becomes yet another common virus

    Chinese party officials barricade an apartment of coronavirus infected residents:



    "[Residents of Kunshan, Jiangsu refused to be quarantined] [Forcibly taken away by staff members] Online circulated clips, a group of personnel wearing protective clothing of "Kunshan City Governance" went to a household to persuade the residents to prepare for packing to be isolated, but the head of household refused to cooperate. The staff then entered the house and took the residents one by one and sent them to the ambulance. The male head of the household questioned the staff members for breaking the law and fiercely resisted. During this period, the staff members' protective clothing was broken and they tried to hide under the car.":

    https://twitter.com/RFA_Chinese/status/1224648420687695872
     
  24. Feb 4, 2020 #144

    Ez2cDave

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    Simple . . . Exposure is, basically, a "numbers game". The more people you are around, the higher the mathematical possibility of exposure. I live outside a small town, in rural North Carolina ( Pop. 3700 ), about 25 miles outside of Raleigh . . . So, my "plan" is:

    (1) Carefully watch active case numbers in the USA.

    (2) Avoid contact in areas frequented by large numbers of people. ( Church, grocery stores, malls, restaurants, etc. )

    (3) Lay in a good supply of "staple foods", medications, extra propane cylinders, and bottled water, in addition to stocking up our spare freezer.

    (4) Be certain our vehicles are fully-fueled, at all times, with extra fuel stored.

    (5) Basically, if the situation warrants, to "Bug-In" and "hunker down".

    In a nutshell, be prepared to isolate ourselves, until the maximum number of victims, in our area, either die off and/or the "active case numbers" decline substantially.

    Dave F.
     
  25. Feb 4, 2020 #145

    Winston

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    I very strongly suspect that cases and deaths are being massively under-reported, not necessarily intentionally, but due to an overwhelmed medical system since an estimated 5 million people left the virus epicenter Wuhan to return home for the Lunar New Year holiday prior to the quarantine of Wuhan. The proverbial cat is WAY out of the bag due to a delay in reporting the virus. I am truly sad for the people of China if this is correct. I suspect many who, as shown in the video above, are being sealed into their apartment complexes will simply die while infecting others in their families. Many can't even get to a medical facility because all mass transit has been shut down and they don't own cars. What are the ill supposed to do, walk? At least the eight doctors who were initially jailed for sounding the alarm have been acquitted.

    See a China "heat map" of the pandemic here:

    https://wuflu.live/

    Note how widely spread the virus is in China and how the problem is greater the closer one gets to Wuhan's Hubei province. The start of a holiday travel season was the very worst possible time for something like this to happen as those 5 million Wuhan residents spread 2019-nCoV everywhere.

    Also note that the live video of the rescue hospital at that link shows that it is not fully completed. EDIT: I no longer see the two live streams (from different spots), just the two from 31 Jan.

    ---------

    Xi Jinping Warns Virus May Impact China’s Social Stability
    [THAT gives you an idea of how BAD this really must be in China when a police state says that - W]
    February 3, 2020

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-may-impact-china-s-stability-at-rare-meeting

    Chinese President Xi Jinping called on all officials to quickly work together to contain a deadly new virus at a rare meeting of top leaders, saying the outcome would directly impact social stability in the country.

    The effort to contain the virus directly affects people’s health, China’s economic and social stability, and the country’s process of opening up, he told a meeting of the Communist Party’s powerful Politburo Standing Committee on Monday. Leaders also urged officials “to achieve the targets of economic and social development this year” and “promote stable consumer spending.”

    It was the second meeting of China’s senior-most leaders to handle the crisis in recent days, a rare occurrence over the past few decades. The virus has already claimed more than 400 lives in China and sent its equity markets plunging.

    “The outbreak is a major test of China’s system and capacity for governance, and we must sum up the experience and draw a lesson from it,” the official Xinhua News Agency reported, citing a statement from the meeting.

    Xi had been out of public view for nearly a week as his government battles the deadly epidemic amid concerns over its abilities to contain the virus. He made his last public appearance on Jan. 28 when meeting in Beijing with Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director general of the World Health Organization, which has declared the coronavirus a “public health emergency of international concern.”
     
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2020
  26. Feb 4, 2020 #146

    Ez2cDave

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    Well said, sir . . . The World is being lied to by China !

    Dave F.
     
  27. Feb 4, 2020 #147

    Winston

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    Bad news about the international spread and pointing out likely very bogus death figures from many provinces in China. On the latter, I wondered the same when seeing provinces reporting huge numbers of confirmed cases, but no deaths. Let's hope that that means the virus has mutated to a less deadly form, but I'm not counting on that.

    'Nothing To See Here!' With Coronavirus - Scientist Disagrees

     
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2020
  28. Feb 5, 2020 #148

    Winston

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    At least 10 on quarantined Japanese cruise ship infected with coronavirus
    5 Feb 2020

    https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2...ed-japanese-cruise-ship-infected-coronavirus/

    At least 10 passengers on a cruise ship quarantined near Yokohama have tested positive for a new coronavirus originating in the Chinese city of Wuhan, health minister Katsunobu Kato said Wednesday.

    Among the passengers, samples of 273 people have been taken, ministry officials said. Out of 31 results returned so far, 10 people had tested positive. The 10 were now being taken to hospitals in Kanagawa Prefecture, the ministry said.

    Passengers were asked to stay inside the cabin, NHK reported, as the testing continued.

    The ship, the Diamond Princess, with more than 3,700 passengers and crew aboard, has been kept in quarantine at anchor off the coast of Yokohama since Monday after an 80-year-old passenger from Hong Kong was found to be infected with the pneumonia-causing virus.


    -----------

    Not one but four tests later, Chinese man finally confirmed with coronavirus
    Tianjin railway worker identified as infected after multiple visits to hospital and twice becoming sick, health authorities say
    3 Feb 2020

    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soc...our-tests-later-chinese-man-finally-confirmed

    Four tests were needed to confirm a case of the new deadly coronavirus in northern China, highlighting the difficulty of screening for the previously unknown illness, which has spread throughout the world.

    The patient, a 55-year-old railway worker living Tianjin, a megacity next to the capital of Beijing, was identified as a potential case in mid-January because he had been in “close contact” with a number of infected patients in the city, according to the local health commission.

    On January 19, the man developed a fever and, a week later, he went to hospital and was tested twice for the virus. The results were negative and he was quarantined at home.

    He had fever again on January 27, but the third test the next day again indicated that he was not infected.

    It was only until January 30, when he was tested again that he was confirmed as infected, making him Tianjin’s 28th case.

    The health commission said that up to three tests had been required to confirm an infection in other patients.
     
  29. Feb 5, 2020 #149

    Ez2cDave

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  30. Feb 5, 2020 #150

    Winston

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    Yeah, I saw that before and looked up who he is. I always do that. "Francis Anthony Boyle (born March 25, 1950) is a professor of international law at the University of Illinois College of Law. "

    As a result, I did not bother to watch the video.

    I'll go with former bioweapons defense microbiologist Steven Hatfill who reviewed the various studies of the virus at the genetic level who says it's not a biological weapon.
     
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