Coronavirus Outbreak

The Rocketry Forum

Help Support The Rocketry Forum:

Status
Not open for further replies.

Winston

Lorenzo von Matterhorn
Joined
Jan 31, 2009
Messages
8,446
Reaction score
797
On the stock market.

"Buy the F****ing Dip (BTFD), the central banks have your back!"

That has been the montra since the Global Financial Crisis. The current worldwide bubble has been caused by MASSIVE amounts of new DEBT and government deficit spending worldwide and, in Japan for instance, a central bank actually buying STOCKS to artificially prop up their market for years [illegal for our Fed to do that, thank God, but that could be changed overnight]. Ever since the Global Financial Crisis which was also caused by too much leveraged debt, central banks have effectively been "fixing" things in a way one would "cure" an alcoholic by giving him alcohol.

Now, the "Everything Bubble" may have finally met its PIN: COVID-19.

Major BANK economist says the coronavirus market reaction ‘boggles the mind’
[only your "modern monetary theory" pea brain, pal - W]
28 Feb 2020

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/m...ion-boggles-the-mind-2020-02-28?mod=home-page

Best comment I found to that column:

"The markets were like a room filled with dynamite and gasoline. Cooked books, extreme valuations, debt, blah, blah, blah.

The trigger was the virus, could have been an oil related thing like another rocket attack with possible open conflict in the Middle East, a bank failure, an accounting scandal, who knows?

But the cause/trigger doesn't matter.

And valuations don't matter till they do."
[Exactly. In a bubble, a stock's price doesn't necessarily reflect its REAL value. - W]

The 'Everything Bubble'
8 Oct 2019

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4294585-everything-bubble-where-to-invest-today

In 2001, we had the dot-com bubble...
In 2007, we had the housing bubble...
Today, we live in the “everything bubble.”

Literally every single asset class is historically expensive.

Bonds yield close to nothing after a multi-decade long decline in interest rates. If you account for taxes and inflation, you are losing money by lending it.
This secular bull market in bonds has pushed a lot of investors into equities. As a result, the broader equity market is today priced at 22.3x earnings in a late cycle economy. This is ~30% higher than the average – and history suggests that such lofty valuations result in poor long-term results.

So, Bonds and Stocks are pricey. What about real estate? We can see the same trend here in valuations. More capital than ever before is chasing real estate deals and as a result, cap rates have compressed to historically low levels for most property sectors.

This creates three major problems to investors:

Bonds: Not enough income is earned to meet investor's immediate needs. This is particularly dangerous to large institutions and retirees.

Stocks: With high valuations in a late cycle, risks are very high and investors could suffer significant capital losses from a return to historic valuation multiples.

Real Estate: The returns are not particularly appealing in most traditional sectors (apartments, office, industrial…) – especially given that it is an illiquid asset class.



Video from SEVEN YEARS ago showing how the (non)science of economics [even called the "Dismal Science" within the "profession"] is simplistic garbage:

Minsky Introduction Video

Minsky moment

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsky_moment

The rapid instability occurs because long periods of steady prosperity and investment gains encourage a diminished perception of overall market risk, which promotes the leveraged risk of investing borrowed money instead of cash. The debt-leveraged financing of speculative investments exposes investors to a potential cash flow crisis, which may begin with a short period of modestly declining asset prices. In the event of a decline, the cash generated by assets is no longer sufficient to pay off the debt used to acquire the assets. Losses on such speculative assets prompt lenders to call in their loans. This rapidly amplifies a small decline into a frank collapse of asset values, related to the degree of leverage in the market. Leveraged investors are also forced to sell less-speculative positions to cover their loans. In severe situations, no buyers bid at prices recently quoted, fearing further declines. This starts a major sell-off, leading to a sudden and precipitous collapse in market-clearing asset prices, a sharp drop in market liquidity, and a severe demand for cash.

Black Swan Here?: DOW Has Fastest 10% Drop In History

From the video in this tweet: "The Fed is fairly impotent in this environment." "This is possibly the worst thing I've ever seen in my career" and he's been through the '87 crash and every one since. BOTH a severe supply AND demand shock:

https://twitter.com/BloombergTV/status/1233113560265478144
 

rcktnut

Well-Known Member
Joined
Oct 26, 2009
Messages
1,569
Reaction score
156
Location
Sheboygan WI
I seen "the announcement" of what our country is going to do, it was pitiful, period.
 

DAllen

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jan 18, 2009
Messages
4,754
Reaction score
695
I am impressed with the amount of keyboard time Winston has. Quite a wall of text.
 

Winston

Lorenzo von Matterhorn
Joined
Jan 31, 2009
Messages
8,446
Reaction score
797
I seen "the announcement" of what our country is going to do, it was pitiful, period.
The medical community's response to the "unknown source" patient in CA from yesterday indicating likely community spread was TOTALLY BOTCHED, exposing all kinds of people to the virus in the process and sending a very bad omen for responses elsewhere. ALSO, if the CDC hadn't violate their own testing policy which restricts tests to people who have been to China or have been near someone known to be infected, that case would not even have been found! In other words, the reason no community spread has been found is because they're not looking for it! When they finally do, the cases will most likely skyrocket as they have everywhere else where they actually start testing. Check the incredible graphs and charts here:

2020 coronavirus outbreak in South Korea

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_outbreak_in_South_Korea

When that happens, I strongly suspect the current stock market crash will accelerate further.
 

Mushtang

Premium Member
TRF Supporter
Joined
Nov 29, 2011
Messages
2,957
Reaction score
356
Location
Buford, Ga
You have been a major problem on this since this thread began and YOU were the one I was referring to about being banned.
Since the thread began? What exactly did I say that was a problem in the beginning of this thread?

I'll go look... my first post to this thread was post number 63. It was a link to an article about 200 people coming home from Wuhan after being screened repeatedly. Hardly something I'd call a "major problem" and the 63rd post is certainly far from "since the thread began".

My second post was an off topic post in reply to someone else's off topic post in post number 172. Off topic posts are inevitable but again, hardly a "major problem" and certainly not political since it was a quote from a zombie movie. Still seems like you've got me beat on getting political in this thread Winston.

My third post, waaaay down on post number 248 where I discussed something I'd heard on the radio, was about an interview with someone that was actually on the cruise ship parked off the coast of Japan (can't really say we're anywhere near when the thread began with that post and I'm still not seeing a "major problem").

My fourth post was number 296 giving people some good news to consider regarding their 401k instead of seeing it as a loss of money.

Is this the "major problem" I've been in this thread Winston? Should I be banned for "getting political" by posting on topic information which contained zero political information, or the one off topic post which also contained zero political information???

I needed to compare what a politician said, the "official line", with the facts. Simple as that and you know it. When it comes to lies or ignorance, I could have easily mentioned what most any politician has said about anything.
And yet, you didn't. You made a threat to everyone not to get political and then proceeded to post quotes from an interview of Trump as though he's the only one that has gotten something wrong when discussing this virus.

But if all you were doing is pointing out what someone said, and it has nothing to do with politics, then I'm sure you won't care if I do the same thing. Oh wait, if I do it it's political, if you do it it's just a simple need to compare. Riiiiiight.
 

Winston

Lorenzo von Matterhorn
Joined
Jan 31, 2009
Messages
8,446
Reaction score
797
I am impressed with the amount of keyboard time Winston has. Quite a wall of text.
I cut and paste from sources, composing posts in a text editor, then tweak the presentation by using preview thread. Takes less time than you'd think and since I'm reading the stuff anyway, why not?
 

Winston

Lorenzo von Matterhorn
Joined
Jan 31, 2009
Messages
8,446
Reaction score
797
But if all you were doing is pointing out what someone said, and it has nothing to do with politics, then I'm sure you won't care if I do the same thing. Oh wait, if I do it it's political, if you do it it's just a simple need to compare. Riiiiiight.
Mushtang: No need to reply from now on because you are now "ignored."
 

Mushtang

Premium Member
TRF Supporter
Joined
Nov 29, 2011
Messages
2,957
Reaction score
356
Location
Buford, Ga
Mushtang: No need to reply from now on because you are now "ignored."
Okay. I guess that's one way to handle the tough to answer question of what exactly did I say that was a problem in the beginning of this thread?

Don't admit you're wrong or point out how I've been a problem. Just put your fingers in your ears and say "La la la la, I can't hear you".
 

Winston

Lorenzo von Matterhorn
Joined
Jan 31, 2009
Messages
8,446
Reaction score
797
BTW, expect Fed rescue action, probably in a major way even though they don't have as much interest rate dropping headroom as they'd like. The ECB is in a FAR worse position than our Fed. But as pointed out, it will simply be a continuation of the "alcohol" to "cure" the alcoholic going through DTs that has been done worldwide since the GFC, the then-claimed "emergency measures" that for some reason have been perpetual.

EDIT: Yup...

There Is Just One Question: Will The Fed Activate A Coordinated Central Bank Bailout On Sunday
28 Feb 2020

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/o...coordinated-central-bank-bailout-sunday-night

With global markets in freefall, the S&P opening 3% lower and cementing its worst week since the global financial crisis; the Dow (or is thar Down Joanes) plunging more than 4,000 points this week, traders (especially levered ones) are left with just one option to stave off a career (and personal fortune)-ending margin call: praying, though not to god but rather to the Fed.

To be sure, the Fed itself has given enough reasons for this: on Monday the biggest uber-dove in history, former Minneapolis Fed and the Fed's only negative "dot" ever, Narayana Kocherlakota penned a Bloomberg op-ed saying the Fed should cut not once but twice, and do it on an emergency basis ahead of the March FOMC meeting.

Then, this morning, one day after he penned a similar Op-Ed, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh - who has finally crushed his "hawkish" facade as he guns to replace Powell as the Fed's Chair - echoed Kocherlakota when he said he expects the Fed and other central banks around the world to act soon in response to the coronavirus outbreak. Warsh, no longer even pretending to give a rat's a** about efficient markets and price discovery that is independent of Fed manipulation, recommended the Fed act as quickly as Sunday to assuage financial markets that have been in an aggressive swoon all week as the virus has spread.
 
Last edited:

Winston

Lorenzo von Matterhorn
Joined
Jan 31, 2009
Messages
8,446
Reaction score
797
FEBRUARY 27, 2020
Exclusive: U.S. mulls using sweeping powers to ramp up production of coronavirus protective gear

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...oronavirus-protective-gear-idUSKCN20L2S0?il=0

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Donald Trump’s administration is considering invoking special powers through a law called the Defense Production Act to rapidly expand domestic manufacturing of protective masks and clothing to combat the coronavirus in the United States, two U.S. officials told Reuters.

The use of the law, passed by Congress in 1950 at the outset of the Korean War, would mark an escalation of the administration’s response to the outbreak. The virus first surfaced in China and has since spread to other countries including the United States.

U.S. health officials have told Americans to begin preparing for the spread of the virus in the United States.

The law grants the president the power to expand industrial production of key materials or products for national security and other reasons. The biggest producers of face masks in the United States include 3M Corp and Honeywell International Inc.

[snip]

“Very little of this stuff is apparently made in the (United) States, so if we’re down to domestic capability to produce, it could get tough,” the DHS official told Reuter
 

Winston

Lorenzo von Matterhorn
Joined
Jan 31, 2009
Messages
8,446
Reaction score
797
It is but there's no reason to announce it to everybody else. It just makes the poster look petty.
I've done a few stealth stealth "ignores" in the past. In this case, I was just trying to reduce the responses I won't be seeing immediately since with a stealth ignore it takes a while for the ignored person to catch on. PLUS, it lets everyone else know WHY I'm not responding - not because I don't have a response. I just don't choose to take part in the argument.
 
Last edited:

cwbullet

Obsessed with Rocketry
Staff member
Administrator
TRF Lifetime Supporter
Global Mod
Joined
Jan 24, 2009
Messages
25,042
Reaction score
3,090
Location
Glennville, GA
The N95 is fine. You do not need a special mask. Just buy them at Homedepot or Lowes.
 

cwbullet

Obsessed with Rocketry
Staff member
Administrator
TRF Lifetime Supporter
Global Mod
Joined
Jan 24, 2009
Messages
25,042
Reaction score
3,090
Location
Glennville, GA
My Lowes shows they were out but they has them at both HomeDepot and Lowes. I bough a few as back up for my trip.
 

heada

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jan 18, 2009
Messages
3,200
Reaction score
559
Location
Indianapolis, Indiana
I go through a box or two of 20 N95 masks every year. I use them while sanding rockets and woodworking projects. My local Lowes keeps going out of stock and then refilling about once per week. If you ask when they restock, they'll tell you and they're good to have for the hobby anyway. I need to get a few more VOC filters for my full face mask that I use while painting. :)
 

kuririn

BARGeezer
TRF Supporter
Joined
Oct 3, 2016
Messages
4,475
Reaction score
1,996
Location
Hawaii
Store shelves here have been out of N95 face masks from several days ago. Shelves are also bare of hand sanitizers, bottled water, and TP. State health officials recommended a 14 day supply of emergency rations for all residents a few days ago.

The 14 day timeframe makes me wonder if that is to isolate healthy people from getting sick or, more likely, to confine (i.e. self-quarantine) sick residents from the general population.

Per this morning's local newspaper, State officials are determining the protocols whereby "social isolation" steps will be implemented, such as shutting down large gatherings, schools, working remotely, etc.
Same article says that in Japan drastic steps have already been implemented including a month long shutdown of schools.
 

cwbullet

Obsessed with Rocketry
Staff member
Administrator
TRF Lifetime Supporter
Global Mod
Joined
Jan 24, 2009
Messages
25,042
Reaction score
3,090
Location
Glennville, GA
Store shelves here have been out of N95 face masks from several days ago. Shelves are also bare of hand sanitizers, bottled water, and TP. State health officials recommended a 14 day supply of emergency rations for all residents a few days ago.

The 14 day timeframe makes me wonder if that is to isolate healthy people from getting sick or, more likely, to confine (i.e. self-quarantine) sick residents from the general population.

Per this morning's local newspaper, State officials are determining the protocols whereby "social isolation" steps will be implemented, such as shutting down large gatherings, schools, working remotely, etc.
Same article says that in Japan drastic steps have already been implemented including a month long shutdown of schools.
I think you will find N95 masks soon. Purel will come back in stock.

The rest I can’t disagree with. There is good reason to take precautionary measures, but I would do not transition to living in your closet or a bunker.
 

kuririn

BARGeezer
TRF Supporter
Joined
Oct 3, 2016
Messages
4,475
Reaction score
1,996
Location
Hawaii
On the lighter side (but not for the company) a local TV morning news program reports that Corona beer is taking a hit.
A poll shows that 38% of respondents would not drink Corona Beer in public.:confused: (Don't know if that would change if done in private).:D
This as Corona prepares to launch it's Corona Seltzer ad blitz.
PS Tsingtao should be taking the hit, not Corona!
 

Sooner Boomer

Well-Known Member
Joined
Mar 21, 2011
Messages
2,846
Reaction score
466
Could we *please* back the tension down a couple of notches? We could be facing a tough time ahead. We'll be better off if we cooperate rather than fight.
 

Sooner Boomer

Well-Known Member
Joined
Mar 21, 2011
Messages
2,846
Reaction score
466
“WARNING: If you have recently purchased meth locally, it may be contaminated with the coronavirus,”

The St. Francis County Sheriff's Office issued a “public service announcement” on Wednesday warning that methamphetamines recently sold in the area may have been “contaminated” with the coronavirus, offer to test it for free. This is an obvious tongue-in-cheek attempt to reduce druge use.

https://www.foxnews.com/us/arkansas-police-offer-to-test-meth-for-coronavirus-better-safe-than-sorry
 

DAllen

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jan 18, 2009
Messages
4,754
Reaction score
695
If people would ever realize that these news agencies feed off of our fears because that's what sells we could actually get factual reporting. But hey, be as paranoid as possible and worry yourself sick over things you have no control over whatsoever. That'll add a few years to your life right? Worry more live less.
 

BF Rockets

Well-Known Member
Joined
Jul 19, 2018
Messages
66
Reaction score
23
Just give me the COVID-19 already. If Pence would coordinate administering the live virus to the general population :sick:This would all be over in a few weeks.
 

cwbullet

Obsessed with Rocketry
Staff member
Administrator
TRF Lifetime Supporter
Global Mod
Joined
Jan 24, 2009
Messages
25,042
Reaction score
3,090
Location
Glennville, GA
More false information on Fox and CNN. I would like to know the source saying we only have 30 million masks in storage. There is more than that. One branch of the military has more than that.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top