Coronavirus Outbreak

Discussion in 'The Watering Hole' started by Winston, Jan 26, 2020.

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  1. Feb 18, 2020 #271

    KC3KNM

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    Isn’t the virus known as COVID-19? It was known of in December, with cases of pneumonia reported to the WHO at the end of December.

    Doesn’t seem irrational that you’d enact some protections at fairly large military institution. I’d imagine given the same circumstances we’d do something similar here. Seems a little irrational to be blowing this out of proportion.
     
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  2. Feb 18, 2020 #272

    Winston

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    No, COVID-19 is the new, official name of the disease. SARS-CoV-2 is now the official name of the virus, named that because it's similar to the 2003 SARS virus with the CoV meaning "coronavirus." They called it 2019-nCoV before, standing for the year discovered, then "n" for "novel" (new, previously unseen).

    On the official message from the military institution, it shows they knew something was seriously wrong long before they sounded the alarm and that's why they are now so very, very screwed. An estimated 5 MILLION people left Wuhan for the Lunar New Year holiday to return to their family homes all over China before the quarantine of that city. You have probably read about the heroic doctor who was seriously threatened by the local government when he tried to sound the alarm. They shut him up. He is now dead from COVID-19 and is rightfully a national hero.
     
  3. Feb 18, 2020 #273

    KC3KNM

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    What I'm getting at is the act of trying to prevent the spread of illness at a national military institute itself isn't exactly a smoking gun when it comes to hiding the virus.

    No doubt is China doing some sketchy stuff, but I think there's a lot more damning evidence out there than this.
     
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  4. Feb 18, 2020 #274

    Winston

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    I agree, but the military academy document simply adds to it.
     
  5. Feb 18, 2020 #275

    Winston

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    This study says 80.9% of cases are mild. WHO more specifically said 80% have mild COLD symptoms.

    So, a figure meant to make you think this is nothing to worry about instead should make you realize that most victims will think they just have a mild cold and spread SARS-CoV-2 everywhere until an established epidemic might make them think otherwise. Then, the medical system will be overloaded with people who do, in fact, just have a mild cold reporting to their GP or hospital where they then have a very good chancing of catching COVID-19 from people who actually are infected. In a study of 138 victims in one Wuhan hospital, 41% caught COVID-19 IN the hospital. The assumption that one just has a cold is why in Wuhan authorities are requiring the personal information of anyone who buys cold or cough medications so they can pay them a visit.

    There is nothing in this study summary about SARS-CoV-2's Ro value which describes how many other people are infected by each infected person. Seasonal flu has an Ro of about 1.28. The latest study I've seen has an Ro 3 or 4 times that for SARS-CoV-2 which could possibly be related to the many people who may think they just have a mild cold spreading it around.

    The overall death rate for the seasonal flu is approximately 0.14%. The overall death rate for COVID-19 is 2.3%, over 16 times higher.

    Most coronavirus infections are mild, says Chinese study
    18 Feb 2020

    https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-02-coronavirus-infections-mild-chinese.html

    A paper published in the Chinese Journal of Epidemiology looked at 72,314 confirmed, suspected, clinically diagnosed, and asymptomatic cases of COVID-19 illness across China as of February 11.

    It is the biggest study on novel coronavirus patients since the outbreak began in late December.

    Here are the main findings from the paper by the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CCDC):

    Elderly, sick at risk:

    Some 80.9 percent of infections are classified as mild, 13.8 percent as severe and only 4.7 percent as critical.
    The highest fatality rate is for people aged 80 and older, at 14.8 percent.
    The study finds that patients with cardiovascular disease are most likely to die of complications from the novel coronavirus, followed by patients with diabetes, chronic respiratory disease and hypertension.
    There were no deaths among children aged up to 9, despite at least two cases of newborn babies infected through their mothers.
    Up to age 39, the death rate remains low at 0.2 percent.
    The fatality rate increases gradually with age. For people in their 40s it is 0.4 percent, in their 50s it is 1.3 percent, in their 60s it is 3.6 percent and their 70s it is 8.0 percent.
    Men are more likely to die (2.8 percent) than women (1.7 percent).
    The overall death rate from the virus stood at 2.3 percent.


    Also at:

    More outbreak details emerge as COVID-19 cases top 70,000
    18 Feb 2020

    http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-pers...break-details-emerge-covid-19-cases-top-70000

    The actual Chinese study in English - slow download because it's coming from China where Internet loads must be huge because so many people are trapped indoors combined with demand for this study - 1840 downloads before mine:

    http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51
    --------------

    Excellent overview. Not a Chinese government owned propaganda channel like some others:




    --------------

    Japan Confirms 88 More Cases Aboard 'Diamond Princess', Bringing Total To 542 One Day Before Quarantine Set To End
    18 Feb 2020

    https://www.zerohedge.com/geopoliti...d-diamond-princess-one-day-quarantine-set-end

    --------------

    Coronavirus could impact 5 million companies worldwide, new research shows
    FEB 17 2020

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/17/cor...llion-companies-worldwide-research-shows.html

    A special briefing issued by global business research firm Dun & Bradstreet analyzed the Chinese provinces most impacted by the virus, and found they are intricately linked to the global business network.

    Almost half (49%) of the companies with subsidiaries in impacted regions are headquartered in Hong Kong, while the U.S. accounts for 19%, Japan 12% and Germany 5%.

    Dun & Bradstreet researchers found that at least 51,000 companies worldwide, 163 of which are in the Fortune 1000, have one or more direct or “tier 1” suppliers in the impacted region.


    --------------

    Supply Chain Chaos Unfolds At Major Chinese Ports As Frozen Meat Containers Pile Up
    18 Feb 2020

    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/s...jor-chinese-ports-frozen-meat-containers-pile

    New evidence from Bloomberg reveals cracking global supply chains are fast emerging at major Chinese ports with thousands of containers of frozen meat piling up with nowhere to go.

    The Covid19 outbreak will remain a dominant issue for 1Q as supply chain shocks are being felt by multinationals on either side of the hemisphere.

    Sources told Bloomberg that containers of frozen pork, chicken, and beef (mostly from South America, Europe, and the US) are piling up at Tianjin, Shanghai, and Ningbo ports because of the lack of truck drivers and many transportation networks remain closed.

    Seaports in China are quickly running out of room to house the containers and cannot provide enough electricity points to keep existing containers cold. This has forced many vessels to be rerouted to other destinations.
     
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  6. Feb 20, 2020 #276

    Cnorm

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  7. Feb 20, 2020 #277

    grouch

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    I don't even drink Corona, should I still be concerned?
     
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  8. Feb 20, 2020 #278

    swatkat

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    Stock market may finally be realizing the impact of it today.
     
  9. Feb 20, 2020 #279

    nelie61

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    Last edited: Feb 20, 2020
  10. Feb 21, 2020 #280

    swatkat

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    We've got our first confirmed case in Sacramento.
     
  11. Feb 22, 2020 #281

    shreadvector

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  12. Feb 23, 2020 #282

    Cl(VII)

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  13. Feb 26, 2020 #283

    Peartree

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    This is promising.

    COVID-19 Vaccine Shipped and Drug Trials Start - Time Magazine

    Excerpt:

     
  14. Feb 26, 2020 #284

    AfterBurners

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    My 401k is taking a dump because of this crap!
     
  15. Feb 26, 2020 #285

    Zeus-cat

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    Time to buy AfterBurners!
     
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  16. Feb 26, 2020 #286

    heada

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    Yeah, mine has been hit pretty hard too. Previous 12 months has been +13.8% but the last month has been -4.2% Gonna ride it out, but still hurts.
     
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  17. Feb 26, 2020 #287

    AfterBurners

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    Thats all you can do
     
  18. Feb 27, 2020 #288

    Winston

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    No, COVID-19 here, but the 4G connection really sucks...

    [​IMG]
     
  19. Feb 27, 2020 #289

    jderimig

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    That death rate of 2.3% is highly suspect because of the latest information that symptoms can be very mild. If you get a mild cough and fever and its over in 2-3 days how likely is that case going to recorded as COVID-19? If only the 20% of cases that are more than mild are being counted, then the death rate will be way over exaggerated.
     
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  20. Feb 27, 2020 #290

    Tyeeking

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    It's also heavily skewed by number of infections/deaths in China which isn't exactly noted for high quality health care for the masses. The mortality rate in 1st World western countries is considerably less than 2% being much closer to the mortality rate of the common flu.
     
  21. Feb 27, 2020 #291

    mpitfield

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    Then there is the other side, where a lot of deaths have not been reported as due to Covid19. I have seen credible reports that indicate the death toll from Covid19 is substantially higher, on orders of magnitude.

    Where all of this nets out is debatable, but I am confident that the numbers are not correct. As such, I believe it works in everyone's best interest to take extra caution and avoid person to person environments when possible. At least until we know more facts.
     
  22. Feb 28, 2020 #292

    cwbullet

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    The problem with Covid19 is that it is just a common cold like in most sufferers. All of the estimates of higher death numbers are just conjecture without a positive test.

    I read an article today from a CDC researcher that might be just as infectious as the common cold (which is similar to the flu). Only time will tell with more testing.

    The fatality rate appears to be 2.3%. That is less than MERS and SARS, which was34% and 9.8%. Influenza is about 0.1% in those immunized by 20% do not receive the vaccine but even in that group it is less than 1%.

    Covid 19 appears to be less transmissible to date. This may change. Even in China, there have been far more cases on Influenza than Covid 19.

    We need to not panic. The experts are in place despite what the news says. I am a part of the planning for part of the response. The scientists are working on a vaccine, and these folks are very good. We will have one soon.
     
  23. Feb 28, 2020 #293

    Sooner Boomer

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    *Mine* is going to do really well as soon as the BUY orders hit the desk!
     
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  24. Feb 28, 2020 #294

    cwbullet

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    In a time when people are dying, there could be a worse outcome.
     
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  25. Feb 28, 2020 #295

    DAllen

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  26. Feb 28, 2020 #296

    Mushtang

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    Those of you worried about your 401k should only worry if you're planning on retiring in the next year or so. If not, realize that this is a GOOD thing for your 401k. Stocks are on sale! Keep buying, and when the market goes back up (which it ALWAYS does) you'll have much more money than you would have without this dip.
     
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  27. Feb 28, 2020 #297

    Winston

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    I started this thread because I realized how serious this could get. I stopped posting because people were finding it too much of a bummer. However, I'm back because there are things you really need to know if you don't already.

    First, I caught the following lies being made as they were spoken since I already knew the truth. I DO NOT want this to get political and anyone who tries to make it that should be banned from this IMPORTANT thread. All politicians lie, especially in times of crisis.

    From a very recent press conference:

    Q: So far, your administration is only testing less than 500 people. And health officials are questioning whether that’s enough, comparing to other countries who have tested more than tens of thousands of people. Are you planning to test more people?

    THE PRESIDENT: Well, we’re testing everybody that we need to test. And we’re finding very little problem. Very little problem. [that being because we're not actually looking. - W]

    A faulty CDC coronavirus test delays monitoring of disease’s spread
    25 Feb 2020

    https://www.adn.com/nation-world/20...us-test-delays-monitoring-of-diseases-spread/

    Excerpt:

    Experts are increasingly concerned that the small number of U.S. cases thus far may be a reflection of limited testing, not of the virus' spread.

    While South Korea has run more than 35,000 coronavirus tests, the U.S. has tested only 426 people for the virus, not including people who returned on evacuation flights. Only about a dozen state and local laboratories can currently run tests outside of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta because the CDC kits sent out nationwide a week and a half ago included a faulty component.

    Currently, U.S. guidelines recommend testing for a very narrow group of people - those who display respiratory symptoms and have recently traveled to China or had close contact with an infected person.

    But many public health experts believe that in light of evidence the disease has taken root and spread locally in Singapore, South Korea, Iran, and Italy, [and MANY other countries - W] it's time to broaden testing in the United States. ***Infectious disease experts fear that aside from the 14 cases picked up by public health surveillance, there may be other people, undetected, mixed in with colds and flu. What scares them the most is that the virus is beginning to spread locally in countries outside China, but no one knows if that's the case here, because they aren't checking.

    ---------------

    Q: Mr. President, you talked about the flu and then in comparison to the coronavirus. The flu has a fatality ratio of about 0.1 percent.

    THE PRESIDENT: Correct.

    Q: This has a fatality ratio somewhere between 2 and 3 percent. Given that and the fact —

    THE PRESIDENT: Well, we think. We think. We don’t know exactly what it is.

    Q: Based on the numbers so far —

    THE PRESIDENT: And the flu is higher than that. The flu is much higher than that.
    [I thought you just said his 0.1% figure was correct. It is. - W]

    Emerging Infectious Diseases Journal (CDC)
    Volume 12, Number 1—January 2006
    THEME ISSUE - Influenza
    1918 Influenza: the Mother of All Pandemics

    https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/12/1/05-0979_article

    "An estimated one third of the world's population (or ≈500 million persons) were infected and had clinically apparent illnesses (1,2) during the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic. The disease was exceptionally severe. Case-fatality rates were >2.5%, compared to <0.1% in other influenza pandemics (3,4)."

    ---------------

    A book just published on 1 Nov 2019. Timely. Steven Hatfill is a former US bioweapons defense expert:

    [​IMG]
    One recent anecdote on the lack of preparedness: CA has a bunch of expired Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) they want permission to use. The fedgov has just said there's a reserve stock of 30 million masks, but they want another 270 million ASAP. Previous pandemic studies have projected we might need billions of them.
     
  28. Feb 28, 2020 #298

    Winston

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    Actually, anyone familiar with the publicly available data would have guessed this already, but it's now confirmed in a study.

    FEBRUARY 26, 2020
    Coronavirus screening 'missing more than half of cases': study

    https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-02-coronavirus-screening-cases.html

    Global screening efforts to prevent the rapid spread of coronavirus are likely to fail, according to new research warning that even best-case screenings of air travelers will miss more than half of infected people.

    Researchers in the United States and Britain in a study published in the journal eLife used computer models to predict the impact of screening, based on the latest data of how the coronavirus behaves and how long it takes for patients to show symptoms.

    Building on similar work in 2015, they found that many cases would inevitably be missed and called for a re-think in how nations screen passengers.

    "If someone doesn't realize they have been exposed, and doesn't yet show symptoms, then they are fundamentally undetectable," Katelyn Gostic, a postdoctoral scholar at the University of Chicago and lead author told AFP.

    "We estimate that on average, screening will miss about two thirds of infected travelers."

    Gostic stressed that these misses were not the result of human error, but rather an inevitable by-product of how the virus behaves.

    The WHO says that the typical incubation period—that is the time between a patient contracting the virus and symptoms showing—is around 10-14 days.
    This means that patients could be contagious without even knowing it, rendering temperature tests searching for a tell-tale fever and even self-reporting of exposure largely useless.

    Upon screening, travelers fall into one of four categories: symptomatic but unaware of exposure; aware but asymptomatic; symptomatic and aware; and neither symptomatic nor aware.

    Gostic and the team found that the final category were completely undetectable by traditional screening methods, and travelers in the third category could only be caught if they were willing to self report.

    Even assuming a best-case scenario where only one in 20 passengers were "subclinical"—that is, infected but not showing symptoms—the models predicted that 53 percent of cases would be missed.

    "Substantial fractions of the people who have tested positive in quarantine... did not show any detectable symptoms at the time of diagnosis," said Gostic.
     
  29. Feb 28, 2020 #299

    Winston

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    Coronavirus far more likely than SARS to bond to human cells due to HIV-like mutation, scientists say
    Research by team from Nankai University shows new virus has mutated gene similar to those found in HIV and Ebola
    Finding may help scientists understand how the infection spreads and where it came from
    27 Feb 2020

    https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soc...e-likely-sars-bond-human-cells-scientists-say

    The new coronavirus has an HIV-like mutation that means its ability to bind with human cells could be up to 1,000 times as strong as the Sars virus, according to new research by scientists in China and Europe.

    The discovery could help to explain not only how the infection has spread but also where it came from and how best to fight it.

    Scientists showed that Sars (severe acute respiratory syndrome) entered the human body by binding with a receptor protein called ACE2 on a cell membrane. And some early studies suggested that the new coronavirus, which shares about 80 per cent of the genetic structure of Sars, might follow a similar path.

    But the ACE2 protein does not exist in large quantities in healthy people, and this partly helped to limit the scale of the Sars outbreak of 2002-03, in which infected about 8,000 people around the world.

    Other highly contagious viruses, including HIV and Ebola, target an enzyme called furin, which works as a protein activator in the human body. Many proteins are inactive or dormant when they are produced and have to be “cut” at specific points to activate their various functions.

    When looking at the genome sequence of the new coronavirus, Professor Ruan Jishou and his team at Nankai University in Tianjin found a section of mutated genes that did not exist in Sars, but were similar to those found in HIV and Ebola.

    “This finding suggests that 2019-nCoV [the new coronavirus] may be significantly different from the Sars coronavirus in the infection pathway,” the scientists said in a paper published this month on Chinaxiv.org, a platform used by the Chinese Academy of Sciences to release scientific research papers before they have been peer-reviewed.

    “This virus may use the packing mechanisms of other viruses such as HIV.”

    According to the study, the mutation can generate a structure known as a cleavage site in the new coronavirus’ spike protein.

    The virus uses the outreaching spike protein to hook on to the host cell, but normally this protein is inactive. The cleavage site structure’s job is to trick the human furin protein, so it will cut and activate the spike protein and cause a “direct fusion” of the viral and cellular membranes.

    Compared to the Sars’ way of entry, this binding method is “100 to 1,000 times” as efficient, according to the study.

    Just two weeks after its release, the paper is already the most viewed ever on Chinarxiv.

    In a follow-up study, a research team led by Professor Li Hua from Huazhong University of Science and Technology in Wuhan, Hubei province, confirmed Ruan’s findings.

    The mutation could not be found in Sars, Mers or Bat-CoVRaTG13, a bat coronavirus that was considered the original source of the new coronavirus with 96 per cent similarity in genes, it said.

    This could be “the reason why SARS-CoV-2 is more infectious than other coronaviruses”, Li wrote in a paper released on Chinarxiv on Sunday.
    Meanwhile, a study by French scientist Etienne Decroly at Aix-Marseille University, which was published in the scientific journal Antiviral Research on February 10, also found a “furin-like cleavage site” that is absent in similar coronaviruses.

    A researcher with the Beijing Institute of Microbiology, Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing, said the studies were all based on genetic sequencing.

    “Whether [the virus] behaves as predicted will need other evidence including experiments,” said the researcher who asked not to be named.
     
  30. Feb 28, 2020 #300

    Mushtang

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    Winston says

    and then Winston proceeds to make a highly political post telling only part of the conversation with the President to make him look bad.


    Well done Winston, when will your self imposed ban from this thread begin?
     
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