I revisited the sims to compute CG and CP during flight, especially at rail exit when stability margin is most critical. I assumed an average wind speed of 7 mph, which gave an angle of attack of 11 degrees with a speed of 16 m/s (M 0.047), which is quite a bit different than the pre-flight assumptions.
From the graphs in OR and RS, I picked off the CP and CG locations at rail exit. The CG shifted forward a few mm with propellant burn. The physical model synced up nicely with the simulated dry and wet masses, so I applied this same CG shift to the CFD model.
I re-ran the CFD model at 11 degrees and M 0.047 for the updated CP location. The airflow is separated off the fins at this condition.
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Here are the in-flight stability results at rail exit:
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Conclusions:
I won't be using QJet motors again! I tried B, C, and D motors in LPR over the past few years, and I am not impressed with the performance nor shelf life.
OpenRocket is way too conservative and predicted Test 1.1 to be unstable, which it wasn't. If you demanded a 1 caliber margin, you would be adding a ton of useless nose weight in this model.
Something is not right with OR's transition/tailcone model, which was the
original hypothesis. OR stability
increased as angle of attack increased. You can see this in the Component Analysis tab as well. No other sim - RockSim, CFD, RASAero II - shows this behavior.
CFD has the most rearward CP location initially, but it moves forward a lot with AoA, much more than the Barrowman sims. CFD Test 2 initially predicted a positive stability margin pre-flight, but the rail exit condition was more neutral to negative stability, which kinda agrees with the flight observation. I am still confident that CFD gives the best answer, but larger stability margins are needed to confirm.
Test 3 was predicted to be unstable by large margins by all sims, which agrees with the flight.