Winston
Lorenzo von Matterhorn
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Cockpit Video Of Unusual Trident Ballistic Missile Test May Point To New Warhead
Experts agree that the video may show a high-speed "depressed trajectory" that would be used by the controversial new W76-2 low-yield warhead.
OCTOBER 5, 2019
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zo...llistic-missile-test-may-point-to-new-warhead
You can clearly see two distinct stage separations and one of them falling away as the missile's third stage continues on, barreling westward. But what's strange about it is that the missile looks to level out and fly a relatively low and flat trajectory as it roars across the sky.
I reached out to a number of experts in ballistic missile and strategic capabilities about the video in question. Every one of them agreed that it does look to be a "depressed trajectory." One, who was only willing to discuss his analysis on background, said quite definitely that it was a unique, flatter trajectory than what these missiles usually fly to deploy their extremely powerful reentry vehicles. Another stated the same. I also discussed the video with Ankit Panda, an international security expert who focuses on strategic weaponry. He took a good look at the video and agreed that it could to be a depressed trajectory test, stating:
"The launch angle does appear to be slightly depressed. While it's difficult to ascertain with any certainty from the footage alone, a depressed trajectory test would not be particularly unusual. With the development of the low-yield W76-2 warhead, promptness is at a premium. Depressed trajectories shorten flight times considerably."
The development of the W76-2 is something we have been following closely and mentioned in our original writeup about the launches, noting the following:
Regardless of whether the launches were routine or not, this large test event also comes as the United States and Russia are finding themselves increasingly at odds over strategic arms control and other nuclear weapons-related issues and signs of a new arms race are already growing. The U.S. government has publicly said that it needs the W76-2 in large part to counter potential Russian developments, as well as the country's purported "escalate-to-deescalate" doctrine. Experts continue to disagree about whether this policy actually exists.
The W76-2 came to be out of recommendations from the 2018 Strategic Posture Review and was designed quickly using the existing W76-1 that flies aboard the D5 Trident II missile by lowering its yield
dramatically, from 100 kilotons to around 5-7 kilotons. This allows for tactical nuclear weapons effects, but delivery via an at-the-ready strategic delivery system that can hit pretty much any target on earth in a very short period of time. By depressing the trajectory of the missile, it can get to its target even faster, but doing so sacrifices range and payload capacity. [Now, how would they go about redesigning a warhead to a lower yield with any certainty of its proper function without being able to test it? That huge "stockpile stewardship" program I've previously posted about here. - W]
U.S. Ballistic Missile Sub Fired An Impressive Four Trident II Missiles In Just Three Days
The uncommonly large set of launches comes as the U.S. is developing multiple new warheads for the Trident II as a new arms race with Russia looms.
SEPTEMBER 7, 2019
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zo...e-four-trident-ii-missiles-in-just-three-days
Experts agree that the video may show a high-speed "depressed trajectory" that would be used by the controversial new W76-2 low-yield warhead.
OCTOBER 5, 2019
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zo...llistic-missile-test-may-point-to-new-warhead
You can clearly see two distinct stage separations and one of them falling away as the missile's third stage continues on, barreling westward. But what's strange about it is that the missile looks to level out and fly a relatively low and flat trajectory as it roars across the sky.
I reached out to a number of experts in ballistic missile and strategic capabilities about the video in question. Every one of them agreed that it does look to be a "depressed trajectory." One, who was only willing to discuss his analysis on background, said quite definitely that it was a unique, flatter trajectory than what these missiles usually fly to deploy their extremely powerful reentry vehicles. Another stated the same. I also discussed the video with Ankit Panda, an international security expert who focuses on strategic weaponry. He took a good look at the video and agreed that it could to be a depressed trajectory test, stating:
"The launch angle does appear to be slightly depressed. While it's difficult to ascertain with any certainty from the footage alone, a depressed trajectory test would not be particularly unusual. With the development of the low-yield W76-2 warhead, promptness is at a premium. Depressed trajectories shorten flight times considerably."
The development of the W76-2 is something we have been following closely and mentioned in our original writeup about the launches, noting the following:
Regardless of whether the launches were routine or not, this large test event also comes as the United States and Russia are finding themselves increasingly at odds over strategic arms control and other nuclear weapons-related issues and signs of a new arms race are already growing. The U.S. government has publicly said that it needs the W76-2 in large part to counter potential Russian developments, as well as the country's purported "escalate-to-deescalate" doctrine. Experts continue to disagree about whether this policy actually exists.
The W76-2 came to be out of recommendations from the 2018 Strategic Posture Review and was designed quickly using the existing W76-1 that flies aboard the D5 Trident II missile by lowering its yield
dramatically, from 100 kilotons to around 5-7 kilotons. This allows for tactical nuclear weapons effects, but delivery via an at-the-ready strategic delivery system that can hit pretty much any target on earth in a very short period of time. By depressing the trajectory of the missile, it can get to its target even faster, but doing so sacrifices range and payload capacity. [Now, how would they go about redesigning a warhead to a lower yield with any certainty of its proper function without being able to test it? That huge "stockpile stewardship" program I've previously posted about here. - W]
U.S. Ballistic Missile Sub Fired An Impressive Four Trident II Missiles In Just Three Days
The uncommonly large set of launches comes as the U.S. is developing multiple new warheads for the Trident II as a new arms race with Russia looms.
SEPTEMBER 7, 2019
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zo...e-four-trident-ii-missiles-in-just-three-days
