Chinese Weather Balloons, and Should You Worry About Them?

[Bravo52]

I'm kinda surprised they didn't use the gun too. On the other hand, they're the professionals and I'm not. I assume that the Air Force and relevant intelligence agencies know what they're doing.

The physics of flight would have made that very difficult. "Look up shoot up" is excruciatingly hard to do at ~53K where the plane is "hanging on" to level flight. They probably did a "zoom" to get that high and as Chuck showed us oh so many years ago the flight controls were probably a bit sketch. The balloon was ~10K higher so the range even compromises the firing solution. The missile was the exact weapon needed. The PK on the AIM-9X was probably higher than an AIM-120 considering the dynamics involved.

 

[Tractionengines]

I'm kinda surprised they didn't use the gun too.

Operational Ceiling if F22 is 50,000 the balloon was at 60,000+. The speed of the balloon is a little less than Jetstream. Even at stall speed the F22 is way faster.
Even if they got "permission" to exceed operational ceiling. Closing speed of the jet vs balloon would be a lot.

Using a gun/cannon was a non-starter.

 

[bjphoenix]

What's an embarrassment? We reacted with restraint and reasoned logic. The President acted in accordance with guidance from those closest to the threat assessment and the military carried out the task without incident. Shame on China, but the US handled this well.

What day did the media first report the balloon? In an interview today Biden said that he ordered it to be shot down on Wednesday, and the military made the decision to wait until they thought it could be done safely, which apparently was 3 days later. I think they should have shot it down as soon as it crossed into US territory. Most of Alaska would be unpopulated enough that they could drop it almost anywhere. Then it flew over Canada so it was their responsibility. Then as soon as it crossed into Montana it was probably again over a sparsely populated area.

 

[boatgeek]

The physics of flight would have made that very difficult. "Look up shoot up" is excruciatingly hard to do at ~53K where the plane is "hanging on" to level flight. They probably did a "zoom" to get that high and as Chuck showed up oh so many years ago the flight controls were probably a bit sketch. The balloon was ~10K higher so the range even compromises the firing solution. The missile was the exact weapon needed. The PK on the Aim-9X was probably higher than an AIM-120 considering the dynamics involved.

That makes sense. I saw another source that the F-22’s ceiling was 65K feet. I should have looked deeper. The USAF only lists “above 50K”. Assuming they aren’t holding back 15K of ceiling, then it’s clear the the gun isn’t an option. Thanks for fact-checking me.

 

[Marc_G]

What day did the media first report the balloon? In an interview today Biden said that he ordered it to be shot down on Wednesday, and the military made the decision to wait until they thought it could be done safely, which apparently was 3 days later. I think they should have shot it down as soon as it crossed into US territory. Most of Alaska would be unpopulated enough that they could drop it almost anywhere. Then it flew over Canada so it was their responsibility. Then as soon as it crossed into Montana it was probably again over a sparsely populated area.

I'm a layperson in all fields relating to this situation, so this is just my speculation and perspective:

Presuming this was intentionally sent over our territory (and, I am presuming it was), I believe the thing was sent more to see what our reaction would be to it, than for any actual intel it gathered. I believe showing a measured reaction to something that was certainly not a threat is a better reaction than a hothead guns blazing response.

I also believe all this stuff the media is fed about "Biden wanted it shot down sooner and he listened to military folks to wait until it was over water" is just pablum. I'm sure as soon as the this thing was noticed (before it was over us) and they determined it was likely to overfly us, a complete response decision map was laid out and everybody probably agreed to it. Of course, the President has to assume a tough posture so he gets to say he wanted it shot down posthaste. Fine, whatever, this is theater leaders (of either party) do.

That all said, this thing wasn't a threat to us and I'm pleased we didn't react to it with kneejerk hawkism.

About it being in the water and how long it takes to get to it:

Reports said the area where it went down was secured so no amateurs are going anywhere near it. Remember, the payload structure was 3 schoolbusses long... that's what, maybe 80 feet? For all we know it landed on end and could be sticking out of the water. But where it went down remnants of the cables/balloon material certainly would be at or near the surface. They certainly know where the thing is, to within a coupled dozen yards. I'd be shocked if they didn't have a buoy attached to it within an hour of it splashing down. Wait for the right equipment for extraction, but they know exactly where it is.

 

[boatgeek]

I'm a layperson in all fields relating to this situation, so this is just my speculation and perspective:

Presuming this was intentionally sent over our territory (and, I am presuming it was), I believe the thing was sent more to see what our reaction would be to it, than for any actual intel it gathered. I believe showing a measured reaction to something that was certainly not a threat is a better reaction than a hothead guns blazing response.

I also believe all this stuff the media is fed about "Biden wanted it shot down sooner and he listened to military folks to wait until it was over water" is just pablum. I'm sure as soon as the this thing was noticed (before it was over us) and they determined it was likely to overfly us, a complete response decision map was laid out and everybody probably agreed to it. Of course, the President has to assume a tough posture so he gets to say he wanted it shot down posthaste. Fine, whatever, this is theater leaders (of either party) do.

That all said, this thing wasn't a threat to us and I'm pleased we didn't react to it with kneejerk hawkism.

About it being in the water and how long it takes to get to it:

Reports said the area where it went down was secured so no amateurs are going anywhere near it. Remember, the payload structure was 3 schoolbusses long... that's what, maybe 80 feet? For all we know it landed on end and could be sticking out of the water. But where it went down remnants of the cables/balloon material certainly would be at or near the surface. They certainly know where the thing is, to within a coupled dozen yards. I'd be shocked if they didn't have a buoy attached to it within an hour of it splashing down. Wait for the right equipment for extraction, but they know exactly where it is.

Was the structure 80’ long or the balloon 80’ diameter? I’ve had a hard time getting any sort of dimensions other than school buses.

 

[rcktnut]

The F22 can hover and fly very slow. Seen it with my own eyes at the EAA AirVenture. They did a fly-by at 35 mph about 100 ft. off the ground. The balloon was evidently above the F22's operating range and had to shoot up at it. They probably could have used the 20mm gun if they had a straight on shot at it.

 

[jbsommerfeldt]

Maybe the USAF/SPACE FORCE should rethink this. Buy it back.

 

[CalebJ]

The F22 can hover and fly very slow. Seen it with my own eyes at the EAA AirVenture. They did a fly-by at 35 mph about 100 ft. off the ground. The balloon was evidently above the F22's operating range and had to shoot up at it. They probably could have used the 20mm gun if they had a straight on shot at it.

Are you mixing the F35C with the F22?

 

[rcktnut]

Was the structure 80’ long or the balloon 80’ diameter? I’ve had a hard time getting any sort of dimensions other than school buses.

The structure hanging below the balloon was estimated to be 90ft. long.

 

[rcktnut]

Are you mixing the F35C with the F22?

Nope, F35 was not even in operation at the time. It was awesome to see that thing fly like that, had to cover ears or go deaf.

 

[georgegassaway]

The hype about this reached F-Troop levels.

 

[hobie1dog]

now everyone is curious as to what the government is actually going to tell us

 

[boatgeek]

The structure hanging below the balloon was estimated to be 90ft. long.

Thank you. That sized object wouldn’t likely stand on end in the water unless there was a really weird combination of landing angle and sea bottom material. Some portions might be sticking out of the water, especially if it hit on end.

You definitely want your A team on the job to lift something like that out of the water. You might even want two boats with cranes to minimize the chance that you hit your boat with the object. Alternatively, you could cut it up in the water, but that has its own set of risks.

 

[hobie1dog]

if it was that big and weighed as much, then that thing was hauling a$$ by the time it hit the water (from 50K+ feet), and it's probably in many, many pieces

 

[Marc_G]

Apparently the "school bus" is a new systeme internationale unit of length, equivalent to 90 feet. Just as the "Katie Couric" is about 2.5 pounds. ;-)

Anyway, I feel very confident that the splashdown area was extensively monitored during splashdown.

 

[Marc_G]

if it was that big and weighed as much, then that thing was hauling a$$ by the time it hit the water (from 50K+ feet), and it's probably in many, many pieces

Again, layman speaking, but the big solar panels might have been smashed and the frame bent, but the electronics package was presumably hardened for to survive a controlled descent and sea-based retrieval. It's not unreasonable that it survived to an extent we would find useful for analysis. Probably, there's a note inside the electronics package to the effect of "haha, we controlled your news cycle for several days. You lose."

 

[hobie1dog]

you know that our satellites could have told you exactly what GPS position it was when it splashed down, and you also know that we could have taken five or six of these boats and made it out to the Splashdown site in about an hour, not two days

 

[Steven]

Don't worry, this guy reeled it in on a string.

 

[Steven]

And it had little ones in England.

 

[hobie1dog]

well, this has been a fun thread so far

 

[Steven]

This is the picture I took from Starbucks.

 

[Cape Byron]

now everyone is curious as to what the government is actually going to tell us

“Ahh, yeah. It’s officially a UAC… ‘Unauthorised Aerial Chinese thing’.

“Thank you.

“No more questions. Thank you.”

 

[hobie1dog]

I always imagine that those press conference reps from the White House, are Always are nervous wreck about trying to come up with answers to questions from the Press over things like this. maybe they recruit all of those people from local Psychiatric Centers that deal with people who are chronic Liars.

 

[NateB]

The F22 can hover and fly very slow. Seen it with my own eyes at the EAA AirVenture. They did a fly-by at 35 mph about 100 ft. off the ground. The balloon was evidently above the F22's operating range and had to shoot up at it. They probably could have used the 20mm gun if they had a straight on shot at it.

Are you mixing the F35C with the F22?

I saw the same thing working at the Battle Creek airshow a while back. They came in hot for the first pass with a nice condensation cone forming on the nose (and the tower telling them to slow down - and not on the public channel ) and then did a second pass quite slow. They essentially stopped in mid air and turned around to go back where they came from. My jaw dropped, I had never seen a jet maneuver quite like that before. It was disappointing to hear people in the crowd later complain that they weren't doing rolls and loops.



They didn't let us get too close to these aircraft, but we had a better look than the public. It's still an impressive machine.

 

[Steven]

 

[georgegassaway]

Again, layman speaking, but the big solar panels might have been smashed and the frame bent, but the electronics package was presumably hardened for to survive a controlled descent and sea-based retrieval. It's not unreasonable that it survived to an extent we would find useful for analysis.

It would make tons more sense if it uplinked all its data to satellites real-time, or as soon is it acquired a new satellite if it was not using a geostationary ComSat.

Having all the info stored onboard to physically retrieve later is so "Discoverer" and "Ice-Station Zebra" from the 60's.

Also, do not assume when it it plummeted, that it fell vertical like a spear. Could have fallen sideways (unless enough of the balloon was left attached to it, or if they had a built-in chute as most weather balloon packages do). But if it did fall vertically with no chute, there would not be much left of the stuff that was attached to it when it smashed into the water. OK, perhaps enough to make out the basics, but nothing intact like black box recorders (I don't think they'd be dumb enough to do that. And, again, far better to transmit the data, not have to retrieve it).

The whole thing was just stupid to begin with. On their part, and also our "the sky is spying on us" hype.

The sky has been spying on us for many decades now.

 

[Tractionengines]

The F22 can hover and fly very slow. Seen it with my own eyes at the EAA AirVenture. They did a fly-by at 35 mph about 100 ft.

Yeah... at ground level with LOTS of THICK AIR... there you get lots of lift from the wings even at low speeds, and the engines can "pull in" lots of air to run thru the compressor section. At, or above, the normal operational ceiling, the minimum velocity is going to be MUCH higher. Both to get lift, and keep enough mass air flow thru the engine to keep it running.

 

[flyingeagle]

My brother in-law watch the jets shoot it down while my sister in law took still shots on her cell phone

 

[hobie1dog]

My brother in-law watch the jets shoot it down while my sister in law took still shots on her cell phone

I wonder how many people were following it with their astronomy telescopes with a camera attached?