From perusing the thread, I have to admit I'm surprised by how many participants seem to think the Chinese are itching to provoke a shooting war with us, or perform something devastating like loft an EMP bomb over here and detonate it, taking down our infrastructure.
I'm pretty sure that's the last thing they want. Doing so would isolate them (well, except for Russia and North Korea), and that's not in their interests.
China wants to grow economically. Every indicator points to this. This might include things such as pushing their territorial boundaries by building islands, pressing their claim on Taiwan, and other things that rile up their neighbors and the west. Sure.
But they hold something like $1Trillion in our debt and have the prospect of taking on more of it. (
source) We can't service that debt or pay it back or increase it if we are at war with them.
The West (US + UK + EU) alone does something like $1.7T per year in trade with them (
source), and that number snowballs if you include other countries that would side with us. Take away this trade, or even curtail it a little bit, and their economy grinds to a halt overnight.
Also look at the percentage of GDP spent on the military, comparing US with China (we are about double by this measure,
source)
China plays a long game. This includes riling up it's opponents, setting them against each other, pushing boundaries, and generally towing a line that is focused on putting themselves at economic advantage while keeping their opponents (try to avoid the term enemies), confused and on the back foot.
A shooting war with the west would bankrupt the country and foment rebellion at home. Not happening. Comparisons with Pearl Harbor scenarios are bogus. Our economy and the Japanese economy of the time were nowhere near this intertwined.
Let's use that moldy old chestnut in our analysis: "Follow the money." It still holds true.
