For those positing the "Pig through the Python" theory, here are some numbers from those charts posted above, looking at the age of the 'pig' as the curve first peaks (caveat, internet interpretation of the charts on my computer monitor, non-scientific old eyes doing the best I can):
The trough between the TARC bump and the Pig seems pretty consistent in the early data, namely 20something to mid 30something. The early data shows a clear rise by mid 30something with a steepening slope to peak. The most recent data shows the same rise inception.....but it's a longer curve up to the peak age demographic.
So, yeah, TARC bump, but it's taking longer for that bump to translate into BAR, and the current non-TARC bump bulk of folks are aging out.
On the bright side, the previous years data shows a peak LOW compared to making it BAR by age 40 was a 4:1 disparity, but the most recent data shows that's more like a 2:1.......so YES, more folks are 'staying' with rocketry when they get into it at a young age. That's also shown in the peak low moving from the ~25 to ~35 age demographic.
Further, when you compare membership totals : US population from '07 to '23, a greater percentage of the total population is a NAR member! Not sure how to write it here but here it is:
So YES, rocketry is growing, if somewhat slowly, and faces something of a major age out event in the next 10-15 years. Only time will tell how it plays out and how it compares to other hobbies.