Can HPR survive with $100 J motors?

[AeroTech]

And here’s the Tripoli age demographic, by year. Currently 6,897 members. Thanks to Neal Baker.

 

[Ez2cDave]

It would be interesting to know what that graph looked like 10 years ago. Would the right-hand spike peak at 50-55, indicating a "pig in the python" that might not be sustainable, or would it stay at 60-65, indicating that's when people have time and money for rocketry?

Eventually, the "pig" reaches the "end of the python" . . . Unless the "python" continues "filling its belly", the "python" starves to death.

Dave F.

 

[teepot]

I guess that's why your town has the name "Pahrump"! (Which is an awesome name)

Pahrump means water rock in Paiute. There are artesian wells here. The available water brought cotton to the valley. Pahrump had the only cotton gin west of the Mississippi. It is not grown now.

 

[teepot]

Does Heidi Fleiss still run a laundromat there?

No. She got busted for drugs a while back. She still lives here though. Her and all her birds. I saw her a couple of times when she first got to town at Walmart. She was recognizable then. Didn't look like her when she first got busted for prostitution. But just like a regular person. When she got busted for drugs the picture in the paper of her was shocking. She looked like 20 miles of bad road.

 

[teepot]

Me to wife: Can I go to Vegas?
Wife: NO way.
Me: How about I buy a few hp rocket motors instead?
Wife: Knock yourself out.

There is plenty to do here besides gambling. Come for a visit and I'll show you around. Places different than the Casinos. Once you have seen one casino you've seen them all. Now the buildings are impressive. There are free things to do here too.

 

[tsmith1315]

There is plenty to do here besides gambling

Like visit BMS!

 

[Zeta]

at NARCON last weekend ... Ed LaCroix seemed pretty happy with how membership roles are growing

 

[AeroTech]

…Astronomy components are capital, you are just exchanging cash for another form of wealth (that's how I justify my other hobby of vintage Ferrari collecting). That equipment can be readily converted back to cash anytime your want. If you buy smartly and or pre-owned, that hobby may not cost you anything.

True, but most hard assets other than real estate and collectibles have a depreciation factor that must be added as part of the cost, even if you buy smartly and pre-owned.

 

[Steve Shannon]

There is plenty to do here besides gambling. Come for a visit and I'll show you around. Places different than the Casinos. Once you have seen one casino you've seen them all. Now the buildings are impressive. There are free things to do here too.

I’ve always enjoyed Nevada most for the non-gambling. There’s a lot of western history, outdoor recreation (including rocketry), and pretty good shopping. I have nothing against gambling. I’ve been know to lose money; it’s just not something that attracts me.

 

[Steve Shannon]

at NARCON last weekend ... Ed LaCroix seemed pretty happy with how membership roles are growing

I’m happy with Tripoli’s membership. That chart that Gary shared only indicates a moment in time. It’s not a pipeline where the only way to get to the older end is to join at the younger end. We are constantly receiving new members in all age groups and the growth of senior members (including BARs) is healthy, even if not as striking as the student members. Although we have 2515 student members, 629 new Senior members have joined our existing 3396 Senior members.

 

[cwbullet]

And here’s the Tripoli age demographic, by year. Currently 6,897 members. Thanks to Neal Baker.
View attachment 560676

It is interesting that Nationally it is different than our local club. Most of our members are 53-83 but we have a lot of college fliers that are non-members.

 

[rharshberger]

It is interesting that Nationally it is different than our local club. Most of our members are 53-83 but we have a lot of college fliers that are non-members.

It would also be interesting to see the longevity of the college age bump, how many are still registered after 2 years.

 

[Zeta]

I’m happy with Tripoli’s membership. That chart that Gary shared only indicates a moment in time. It’s not a pipeline where the only way to get to the older end is to join at the younger end. We are constantly receiving new members in all age groups and the growth of senior members (including BARs) is healthy, even if not as striking as the student members. Although we have 2515 student members, 629 new Senior members have joined our existing 3396 Senior members.

yea I don't remember the exact number but NAR was in the 9000 range for members.

the Minnesota colleges put a lot of cert 1 flights up on our line the last few summers

 

[Steve Shannon]

yea I don't remember the exact number but NAR was in the 9000 range for members.

the Minnesota colleges put a lot of cert 1 flights up on our line the last few summers

Tripoli is approaching 7k - just under 6900. Three or four years ago we had just passed 5,000.

 

[KenECoyote]

It would also be interesting to see the longevity of the college age bump, how many are still registered after 2 years.

Looking at the Tripoli chart, there's a steep drop after age 23 and then it's somewhat flat for ages 27-51 before it starts to increase again. This seems to follow the earlier mention of college kids dropping out (career, family, etc.) and then returning later. NAR charts through the years appear to show similar, but with slightly different age breaks (and curves).

 

[DeltaVee]

Pahrump means water rock in Paiute. There are artesian wells here. The available water brought cotton to the valley. Pahrump had the only cotton gin west of the Mississippi. It is not grown now.

Thanks! I've always wondered about the name ever since my first order from BMS.... just never got around to asking.

 

[Steve Shannon]

It would also be interesting to see the longevity of the college age bump, how many are still registered after 2 years.

And how many of them rejoin in their 30s or 40s.

 

[DeltaVee]

And how many of them rejoin in their 30s or 40s.

I started in the late 60's. Went to graduate school and had no time.... ended up in Utah in '94 and became a BAR. Then we moved back east (big mistake) and lost track of all my stuff... finally found it in early 2017 and been back ever since. I guess I'm a BA-BAR. I wasn't a NAR member until 2017 however.

 

[Banzai88]

I would be interested in seeing (if it's possible) how many dual memberships that there are. I would bet that they're probably centered in the older age bump.

It would be interesting to know about how many individual discreet members exist, certainly it's not a complete aggregate of NAR and TRA baseline numbers.

And surely there are plenty of independent non-affiliated folks out there that launch LP rockets.

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

I’m having trouble digesting the pig in the python theory. I will ruminate on it more.

 

[Banzai88]

I’m having trouble digesting the pig in the python theory. I will ruminate on it more.

The NAR charts posted clearly show that without the TARC bump, that peak membership demographics in older age groups is moving to the right, even though absolute membership is growing overall. I broke it down in this post how the bump is moving 'older'. Basically, in the NAR data in 2004 peak NON-TARC membership demographic was ~40 years old and moves to the right to the point that in the 2023 data that peak is in the ~60 year old demographic, and the TARC data artificially stabilizes the mean/median data.

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

It sounds like Pahrump prostitutes are much more costly than J motors.

That’s an expensive hobby, especially if you get into clustering or multiple stages.

But one difference that prostitues have with rocket motors is that the bigger ones don’t cost any more than the smaller ones.

I don’t have any firm data on this, but I bet the interest in the hobby follows a bimodal curve.

 

[shawn_rocket]

It sounds like Pahrump prostitutes are much more costly than J motors.

That’s an expensive hobby, especially if you get into clustering or multiple stages.

But one difference that prostitues have with rocket motors is that the bigger ones don’t cost any more than the smaller ones.

I don’t have any firm data on this, but I bet the interest in the hobby follows a bimodal curve.

I laughed so hard at this...

 

[DeltaVee]

I laughed so hard at this...

Especially the part about clusters...

 

[astronwolf]

The NAR charts posted clearly show that without the TARC bump, that peak membership demographics in older age groups is moving to the right, even though absolute membership is growing overall. I broke it down in this post how the bump is moving 'older'. Basically, in the NAR data in 2004 peak NON-TARC membership demographic was ~40 years old and moves to the right to the point that in the 2023 data that peak is in the ~60 year old demographic, and the TARC data artificially stabilizes the mean/median data.

I don't believe Thirsty was asking for an explanation. He was being a little jokester there.

Yeah, @Banzai88, I agree with you. I rode the NAR boomer wave from the early 1970s to my present state of late adulthood. I also have the opinion that looking at these graphs and concluding that everything is just wonderful is a little misguided. Some people do that. That's OK. I merely disagree. We can turn the graphs into a nice little Potemkin Village to admire. Maybe the doomsday clock is running for NAR and TRA, but the data doesn't presage the death of the hobby. The graphs don't directly tell us anything about that. Young adults are engaged in a different process than what people in late adulthood were engaged in years ago. I don't believe that anyone knows what the outcome will be, but the outcome necessarily will be different.

 

[Dan Griffing]

Lucky me, I never got into HPR - I fly A-F (and E-F-G composites); most of my available fields aren't allowed to do level 1 flights, etc. The only site that can do HPR is 2.5 hrs away and the logistics of actually getting there are challenging. Still, I am not pleased about $30-35 a flight for F/G composites, but hey, its manageable.

I have to drive my GMC 2500HD diesel rig 90 miles to each launch with all my rocketry gear, so the price increase of the ACP rocket motors is small by comparison.

I get so much enjoyment from high power rocketry and spend so much time of every month preparing for launches that the inflationary cost increases just come with the territory.

 

[tsmith1315]

I get so much enjoyment from high power rocketry

That’s where it’s at.

 

[dr wogz]

I laughed so hard at this...

I figured teh bigger ones might be cheaper.. (in this context..)

 

[DeltaVee]

I figured teh bigger ones might be cheaper.. (in this context..)

Least racy image of futurama I could find...

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

I figured teh bigger ones might be cheaper.. (in this context..)

The price per pound goes down with volume.

Buy in bulk!