Quantcast

Boeing delays manned crew by six months

The Rocketry Forum

Help Support The Rocketry Forum:

georgegassaway

Lifetime Supporter
TRF Lifetime Supporter
Joined
Jan 18, 2009
Messages
4,592
Reaction score
449
And.... NASA is unlikely to buy any more Soyuz seats to send Astronauts to ISS after 2018. It takes about 2 years to build a Soyuz. The deadline for buying any for 2019 Soyuz flights is either passed or about to pass soon:

http://spaceflightnow.com/2016/10/1...re-soyuz-seats-and-it-may-be-too-late-anyway/

So, given the delays by Boeing and SpaceX, i'm not going to be surprised if there's no NASA astronauts sent to ISS for a LONG TIME after the last ones that go up on a Soyuz near the end of 2018. Possibly not till 2020, as both Being and SpaceX have a LOT of stuff to get done to man-rate those spacecraft, some of which is YEARS overdue already.
 

georgegassaway

Lifetime Supporter
TRF Lifetime Supporter
Joined
Jan 18, 2009
Messages
4,592
Reaction score
449
Branson Missouri is building a rocket and spacecraft to go into orbit and dock with ISS?

News to me!

Now, if you meant Richard Branson and Virgin Galactic...... SpaceShip Two was already in trouble before that inflight accident two years ago. Engine/propellant not able to produce enough total impulse to take tourists to the promised 100 kilometer altitude. 95 km maybe.... but 95 (not space) isn't 100 km ("space"), when the whole ride is sold as flying into "space".

They had a massive setback due to the accident, but still the pure rocket science issue remains unsolved AFAIK, for it to be able to make it to 100 KM with passengers.

And even if they solve that, it is a massively huge difference between making a 100 km / 62 mile vertical flight into "Space", at ZERO horizontal velocity, and getting into ORBIT with a horizontal velocity of about 17,500 mph, at 100 miles up or more.

Even moreso, to fly to the altitude of ISS and have the maneuvering and RCS capabilities to rendezvous and dock.

Hell, Space Ship Two is hand-flown, no computers used, which is one massive reason why that stupid accident happened..... a proper flight computer program would not have allowed the "feather" system to be activated at that phase of flight (Co-Pilot unlocked the feather system way early, when flying too fast in too-thick air at lower altitude. Hand-flying overloads both pilots to the point they have a LOT of crazy crap to deal with in seconds, amid the intense vibrations and roar of the hybrid rocket motor).

I think that Branson probably regrets ever getting into this. It's taken the shine off his other achievements. The accident probably guaranteed they'll never make a profit off of it, even if they fly everyone who signed on and paid (and did not ask for a refund), probably won't ever fly that many and then it'll be shut down as unprofitable after flying the backlog of customers (and this assumes no accidents).

I think Branson would be foolish to go beyond SpaceShip Two for any future "space ship" ventures. Maybe to save face, partner with someone like SpaceX* to launch a "Space hotel" into orbit for him ("hotel" built by someone like Bigelow Aerospace), and send up all those few dozens of people who could afford to go to it. But if he got into building a new rocket system on his own, he'd be pretty stupid not to have learned from all this.

- George Gassaway

* - SpaceX and Branson partner? Even the VAB does not have the volume to fit the egos of Musk and Branson under the same roof..... :)
 
Last edited:

Lowpuller

Well-Known Member
Joined
Nov 23, 2013
Messages
2,230
Reaction score
11
Perhaps I should say "Statement Retracted".
 

ksaves2

Lifetime Supporter
TRF Lifetime Supporter
Joined
Nov 25, 2009
Messages
5,982
Reaction score
294
If there is a pressure hull breach and the occupants aren't wearing spacesuits of some kind, near instant death. I prefer living to my natural lifespan and am beyond trying adventurous stuff like this on a budget. Kurt
 

ThirstyBarbarian

Well-Known Member
TRF Supporter
Joined
Feb 11, 2013
Messages
8,447
Reaction score
952
I still can't believe the US got itself into the position of not being able to fly American astronauts to the ISS independently. Hopefully both Boeing and SpaceX can keep their schedules from slipping any further. We can't cut corners, of course, but we really need to have this capability back in 2018.
 

georgegassaway

Lifetime Supporter
TRF Lifetime Supporter
Joined
Jan 18, 2009
Messages
4,592
Reaction score
449
I still can't believe the US got itself into the position of not being able to fly American astronauts to the ISS independently. Hopefully both Boeing and SpaceX can keep their schedules from slipping any further. We can't cut corners, of course, but we really need to have this capability back in 2018.
This goes back to the decision to "retire" the shuttle rather than overhaul the fleet and keep flying.

Totally predictable result.

Except it was not so predictable back then that SpaceX would be able to do as well as they have, given how far they had to come. They've been sending resupply missions to ISS for years now, but not with a crew-qualified version of the Dragon spacecraft.

Still, we could be without a US-launched crew into 2020 as the delays keep happening both at Boeing and SpaceX. Too many times 6 month delays happen 6 months after the previous 6 month delay..... or something like that. The calendar moves along at 12 months per year but not the progress.

The aerodynamic skirt thing with Boeing is......weird. Last Space Kludge I can think of like that was Ares-1. Sorta Kerbal Space Program-ish.

https://spaceflightnow.com/2016/08/02/boeing-nears-fix-for-cst-100-starliner-design-hitch/
 

boatgeek

Well-Known Member
Joined
Dec 27, 2014
Messages
2,927
Reaction score
1,354
The aerodynamic skirt thing with Boeing is......weird. Last Space Kludge I can think of like that was Ares-1. Sorta Kerbal Space Program-ish.

https://spaceflightnow.com/2016/08/02/boeing-nears-fix-for-cst-100-starliner-design-hitch/
That article doesn't give me any hope at all that Boeing will be on time. They were overweight (due to the skirt?) and have gotten themselves back under with structural fixes. They don't have any time in their schedule for "unknown unknowns" (ie everything has to work just right or they won't make schedule), and they haven't started integrating all of the vendor stuff that 100% works exactly how they expect, you know because the vendor's sales guy said they tested it and everything is great. OK, that last is a bit unfair, but not by much.
 
Top