Non-Essential Business

cwbullet said:

I think the administration is currently encouraging innovation. Initially, they were trying to reduce overreaction. China created a lack of proper intelligence through false information. Unfortunately, this resulted in many countries not preparing and many deaths.

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And what makes this virus very effective at reproduction is the possibility that a significant person can remain asymptomatic yet shedding for a relatively long period of time. We literally had the equivalent of many Typhoid Marys moving freely throughout society shedding virus for up to two weeks before the damage was detected.

Steve Shannon said:

And what makes this virus very effective at reproduction is the possibility that a significant person can remain asymptomatic yet shedding for a relatively long period of time. We literally had the equivalent of many Typhoid Marys moving freely throughout society shedding virus for up to two weeks before the damage was detected.

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True. Some folks do shed longer and some are asymptomatic. The problem is we don't have a great way to quantify that. The CDC has estimated, but we really don't truly know.

"Everybody's simulation model is guilty until proven innocent" (Thomas H. Lawrence 1994)

grouch said:

...What will be interesting will be the sociological studies 50+ years down the road.

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Maybe it takes a fellow grouch to also see through the haze but I appreciate your perspective in any case.
Whatever sociological study comes of this, hopefully it includes the first two decades of the 21st century.
Because this is the second such incident with worldwide implication that proves how malleable the general human population is when confronted with uncertainly, fear and conflicting misinformation.

It also shows how completely the vast majority not only vigorously comply (and sufficiently "otherize" those that don't comply), but also how quickly we adopt the lingo and point of view of the entertainment-news media.
Think about how quickly the general population begins to use the new agreed upon lingo. It rolls of our tongues like it's always been there.
I didn't change my way of life in 2001 and I'm not going to now. That's my personal decision.
I hope you don't mind me quoting one of your incites from another thread of the nearly the same topic but you put it much better than I was able to:

"I can't help but feel we are an unwilling participant to some crazy social experiment to see what people are willing to accept or not. The TSA seems to be another one. Behavior can be changed overnight if done in the name of safety whether it makes sense or not. Getting lectured by the guy at the checkout line at Lowes about proper safety protocol after I made a joke about his new plexiglass cage seems a bridge too far for me. This all strikes me as mass group think, I can't put my finger on it exactly but I don't like it at all."
Your statement goes to the very heart of what I feel is the larger and more important issue and I agree with you...
Except for this:
"This has all become absurd and I suspect deep down inside most feel the same way, if only a little bit."

I'm not as optimistic. Unfortunately I suspect most are conditioned to "go-along-to-get-along". It's just easier that way. Keep your head down and agree.
I'm not looking down on that conditioning per sey. It's a proven and important evolutionary trait.
But it'll someday be used against "us". My hope is that my kids and their eventual grand-kids can get through this plane before the vice fully closes.

I've been an iconoclast from the very beginning (even the nuns couldn't beat it out of me) and I'm comfortable with my roll.
As well as calloused to the vitriol I receive for it.

In the meantime, I'll continue to "practice social-distancing" in "these uncertain times".
#Alonetogether
"Thoughts and prayers"
If you "see something, say something".

@Cmac - You MUST do those things...

"Out of an abundance of caution"...

So they say...

KidRockET said:

I reject this statement entirely, I am "mocking" over-regulation which is clear...​

I keep hearing this and reject this as well...

CDC estimates that influenza was associated with more than 35.5 million illnesses, more than 16.5 million medical visits, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths during the 2018–2019 influenza season. This burden was similar to estimated burden during the 2012–2013 influenza season.

490,600 HOSPITALIZATIONS due to the flu in 2018-2019...

Why were we not concerned about overcrowded hospitals last season...

Obviously, they were not the only patient load at the time...

I'm calling BS on this whole fiasco...

You can believe the narrative...

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There is a big difference between half a million hospital visits spread over a year and a similar number crammed into a month.

Same for deaths. You said 34,200 died of flu in 2018-2019. We are at about 10,000 dead from COVID by the end of day today. The exponential increase is at 1.19x per day, so we should pass 34,200 in 7-8 days and will still be increasing, not slowing down, at that point.

You said you are calling BS. Do you think it’s not really happening? Do you not actually see that the healthcare systems are already starting to break down in hard hit places? Are the hospitals lying about it? What about the number of deaths? Do you believe it or not? What about the exponential growth? Real or fake?

Try to keep up...

It was half a million HOSPITALIZATIONS, NOT visits...

And it was a flu season, NOT a year...

Of course it is happening, you would have to...

Live in a cave to think otherwise...

Not one word about overcrowding then...

KidRockET said:

Try to keep up...

It was half a million HOSPITALIZATIONS, NOT visits...

And it was a flu season, NOT a year...

Of course it is happening, you would have to...

Live in a cave to think otherwise...

Not one word about overcrowding then...

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Sorry about the word “visits” — I know you said hospitalizations. I meant hospitalizations too.

And when you say, “490,600 HOSPITALIZATIONS due to the flu in 2018-2019...”, I understand that represents a flu season. But you are wrong if you don’t think it is a year. The 2018-2019 season is exactly one year long. The cases might not come evenly all year, but they do come all year, and that total is for a year-long period.

So I think we are clear on that — you were talking about hospitalizations in a flu season. And next you said, “Why were we not concerned about overcrowded hospitals last season...” And then you said you are calling BS on this whole thing.

So it seems like you are saying that if you can have 490,000 hospitalization for flu in a season, and it doesn’t overwhelm the healthcare system, then it’s BS that COVID will cause the system to be overwhelmed. Is that right? Or were you saying something else?

Because the fact is, regardless of whatever happened with the flu season and whatever reasoning you are using to apply that to the COVID pandemic, we actually are witnessing the healthcare system on the edge of being overwhelmed right now. The PPE is running out, the beds are filling up, the staff is at the limit, and people who don’t have COVID are being sent home for things they would usually stay in the hospital for.

So I’m just trying to understand your point, and I’m asking you, what part is BS?

I believe on comparing a normal flu hospital visit to a C19 visit, a big issue would be duration, i.e., how long a bed is filled. Typical flu symptoms subside in a week or so, versus a C19 stay of, what seems like from reports, three weeks.

Ok,

Flu season in the United States can span from October to May...

And typically peaks between December and February...

Which means the majority of the half a million cases...

Applied pressure on the system during a relative short time frame... (3-months)

Sure some systems are overwhelmed, but they are outliers...

And not systemic of the overall problem we are facing...

KidRockET said:

Ok,

Flu season in the United States can span from October to May...

And typically peaks between December and February...

Which means the majority of the half a million cases...

Applied pressure on the system during a relative short time frame... (3-months)

Sure some systems are overwhelmed, but they are outliers...

And not systemic of the overall problem we are facing...

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But we are only at the beginning, and it is already bad, and it is going to get worse. I’m sure some systems will be overwhelmed and others will not. I think many of the ones that will be overwhelmed are in places where you have a higher number of people who think it is BS.

ThirstyBarbarian said:

But we are only at the beginning, and it is already bad, and it is going to get worse. I’m sure some systems will be overwhelmed and others will not. I think many of the ones that will be overwhelmed are in places where you have a higher number of people who think it is BS.

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It's ok that we do not agree...

I just can't shake the idea that...

The government estimators have grossly...

Over-estimated the death toll...

The amount of ICU beds needed...

The amount of ventilators required...

The number of hospitalizations...

Of course that has never happened before...

So I'm going out on a limb here...

KidRockET said:

It's ok that we do not agree...

I just can't shake the idea that...

The government estimators have grossly...

Over-estimated the death toll...

The amount of ICU beds needed...

The amount of ventilators required...

The number of hospitalizations...

Of course that has never happened before...

So I'm going out on a limb here...

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I hope you are right. If we end up like Italy, you will be underestimating the demand and death toll.

Onebadhawk said:

Hey,
It took me quite a few hours yesterday to jive out all of the material
but I ordered everything I need to start making what I think will be really
good quality face masks.. I don't know about those N95 rated masks but better then the cheapo's you buy..
I have to see how long it takes to make per each / how many I can come up with..
I figured I'll have for my wife and daughter and give em out to the police and fire and my towns volunteer ambulance..

Teddy

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Knowing Teddy, these masks will rip your nose off before they break......

cwbullet said:

I hope you are right. If we end up like Italy, you will be underestimating the demand and death toll.

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I think it’s important to bear in mind that the government and media have been lying to the American people for many decades...

This is a fact, not a conspiracy theory, government agents are indoctrinated in techniques to lie...




Now we’re being told by government and media talking heads that we’re in a war with a virus...

The threat of the virus is supposedly so bad that famine, poverty, suicide and total dependence on government is preferable to contracting the illness...

We’re told to huddle in our homes and social distance ourselves from other humans at least six feet, wash our hands, yada-yada...

Now we’re being told it’s advisable to wear a mask when shopping for necessities like food and medicine...

I’m sure there are cases where Covid-19 was the primary cause of death...

But the percentages are so small as to make the lock down of our society laughable if it wasn’t so serious...

There is HUGE difference between dying with the Wuhan virus and dying from the Wuhan virus...

This virus will pass and life will go on but another will surface in the future...

And the government will never forget how easy it was to take control of your entire life, control of every airline, roadway, church pew, sporting event, classroom, grocery store, restaurant, and park bench...

And they will not forget that our society praised it as the "right thing to do"...

When did the expectation of a lifetime without death ever become the basis for operating a functioning society...

...

KidRockET said:

...

The threat of the virus is supposedly so bad that famine, poverty, suicide and total dependence on government is preferable to contracting the illness...

...

I’m sure there are cases where Covid-19 was the primary cause of death...

But the percentages are so small as to make the lock down of our society laughable if it wasn’t so serious...

There is HUGE difference between dying with the Wuhan virus and dying from the Wuhan virus...

...

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@KidRockET I often struggle to understand your posts and perspective, but please understand that YOU ARE FLAT OUT WRONG about this.

You say you are sure that there are cases where COVID-19 was the primary cause of death, but then say that's a small percentage and then suggesting most of those people didn't die because of it. LOOK AT THE FREAKING NUMBERS!! Go to worldometers.info, sir.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Here is a snapshot taken just now (1:20 pm 4/7/2020)


Today, meaning since the daily clock reset at I think at 9 pm Eastern time, we've lost 1356 people in the US due to COVID-19 and 731 in New York for example, 100 in Georgia. Are 100% of these numbers absolutely positively caused by the virus? No, lack of testing means not all of the bodies were tested. In some cases even severe live cases aren't tested. But these people are those that died due to very unusual symptoms such as unusual respiratory distress / organ failure / cytokine storms that happen relatively rarely outside of COVID-19 and in numbers never before seen. You are suggesting most of these people would have died anyway and just happened to be written up as COVID-19. Not so. That's not how it works.

While true that the numbers are not perfect, they are as close as the people saddled with the grim task can make them, given the tools and time afforded to them. Med professionals tell me that while it will vary from place to place they are probably 90-95% correct, meaning that some cases are missed and some cases are misdiagnosed.

Why are you downplaying the threat by suggesting only a few of these are deaths caused by the virus?

Also, nobody is saying famine, poverty, or suicide is preferable to contracting the illness. There is no famine, at least much not more than usual; farms are still running and distribution is still occurring and food pantries are considered essential businesses. Poverty is relative. Many people are facing poverty due to job loss for sure, but trying to factor that poverty versus what would happen if we all just went back to work and school etc. and killed an extra million or two Americans is anyone's guess. A million extra deaths is a million fewer wage earners. And tens of millions of very ill persons for protracted period. What's that going to do to poverty, hunger, suicide rates?

You suggest we take a different path. What specific path is it you want to see? All back to work, or just your own select few? I would be interested to hear your solution.

So I am not a statistician but the way I see what you posted G is the deaths are far less than the reported number of cases. Wouldn't this support what Kid is saying?

Are you trying to say that people have not misreported death cases caused by the virus? Not one?

As I have said, the estimates regarding this virus are overblown...

I believe that time will bear this out and I am not alone...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/c...er-than-projected/ar-BB12fhcx?ocid=spartanntp

What specific path do I want to see?

One where we don't exchange rights for safety...

One where non-essential people aren't marginalized for the greater good...

One where the cure isn't worse than the disease...

I'm sure we could have fought this virus without shuttering the economy...

I'm reminded of one of those drug commercials...

Where they list all of the side-effects of the treatment...

Is this what we can all expect going forward for the next virus?

If that's the case, call me crazy but I'd rather catch the virus...

I think my perspective regarding this has been pretty clear...

I cherish freedom and liberty more than I fear death...

KidRockET said:

One where we don't exchange rights for safety...

One where non-essential people aren't marginalized for the greater good...

One where the cure isn't worse than the disease...

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These are ideals, and admirable ones that I don't disagree with.

Do you have defined solution that could provide results more in line with those ideals?

grouch said:

So I am not a statistician but the way I see what you posted G is the deaths are far less than the reported number of cases. Wouldn't this support what Kid is saying?

Are you trying to say that people have not misreported death cases caused by the virus? Not one?

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That's because the numbers are for COVID-19, that is not deadly in most cases, unlike, for example like Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease. (Thankfully!)
The case fatality rate will change over time and typically get better, with exact numbers to be determined, but in the end it's way too high to look the other way. An illness that is deadly in probably around 1% of cases doesn't sound that scary if you compare it to something like CJD or Ebola, but if one allows it to infect half of the population that's more than a million fatalities.

We still don't know how deadly COVID-19 is exactly and we are not able to make a perfect determination in every case, but the fact that some hot spots have trouble dealing with all the dead bodies gives us a good indication that the number is serious. The Italian army hauled the dead away by the truckload, because local funeral homes couldn't handle all the cremations. In Madrid an ice rink was converted to an makeshift morgue. Refrigerated semi trailers are used in NYC. That's not another flu.

Reinhard

KidRockET said:

As I have said, the estimates regarding this virus are overblown...

I believe that time will bear this out and I am not alone...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/c...er-than-projected/ar-BB12fhcx?ocid=spartanntp

What specific path do I want to see?

One where we don't exchange rights for safety...

One where non-essential people aren't marginalized for the greater good...

One where the cure isn't worse than the disease...

I'm sure we could have fought this virus without shuttering the economy...

I'm reminded of one of those drug commercials...

Where they list all of the side-effects of the treatment...

Is this what we can all expect going forward for the next virus?

If that's the case, call me crazy but I'd rather catch the virus...

I think my perspective regarding this has been pretty clear...

I cherish freedom and liberty more than I fear death...

Click to expand...

@KidRockET we can go back and forth all day, but let's make it easy: What's your solution based on these categories:

1. K-12 schools: Open or shut?
2. Colleges/Universities: Open or shut?
3. Dine-in restaurants: Open or shut?
4. Movie theaters: Open or shut?
5. Theme parks & similar entertainment venues: Open or shut?
6. Maid services: Open or shut?
7. Public beaches / tourism / pack the hotels: Open or shut?
8. Places of worship: Live or virtual/streamed? (NOBODY is saying don't pray...)

I would be very interested to hear your specifics on these categories (and other categories you may throw in there). Saying "don't exchange rights for safety" isn't a plan. Nail it down based on the above. Then let's compare.

Do you want to be right or wrong?

grouch said:

So I am not a statistician but the way I see what you posted G is the deaths are far less than the reported number of cases. Wouldn't this support what Kid is saying?

Are you trying to say that people have not misreported death cases caused by the virus? Not one?

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Hi grouch, I'm not sure I understand the question(s) exactly but let me try a response. Please redirect me as needed.

Deaths less than reported cases: Yes, we know that estimates of the CFR range from 2-4%, so for every 100 reported cases we only expect a few deaths, though that's orders of magnitude more than flu for example. So this is a very dangerous disease compared to the stuff that usually goes around. This doesn't support KidRocket. Not enacting strong measures results in 100-200 M people getting the virus over the next year or so, and millions of deaths.

I'm sure there are misreported cases in both directions (believing it to be COVID-19, when it was really something else, and on the other hand not recording it as COVID-19 due to lack of awareness that a specific person who was sick/died was infected with the virus). The numbers aren't perfect to be sure, but it's unlikely that the "over-reporting" is more than a few percent and the under-reporting is probably larger than that. Overall, it's probably close to a wash in the US. In other countries, it is clear the disease is under reported due to insufficient testing (worse than here!) or other reasons.

No, I mean cases where they are intentionally reporting the cause of death as COVID when it wasn't. No lack of awareness but a willful intend to mislead.

grouch said:

No, I mean cases where they are intentionally reporting the cause of death as COVID when it wasn't. No lack of awareness but a willful intend to mislead.

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And you know this how?
Source?

kuririn said:

And you know this how?
Source?

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I am asking. Are you saying that it hasn't happened?

grouch said:

I am asking. Are you saying that it hasn't happened?

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Not saying that it has or hasn't happened.
But to infer that it has without citing a source is SPECULATION.
Let's stick to facts, not conjecture.

There are reports of people in hospice dying of COVID. They were in hospice for a reason other than COVID but their cause of death was been reported as COVID just because they were tested positive.

There is a case in CT where the Gov. reported that a baby died of COVID after being rushed to the hospital unresponsive. The baby was reported to have had COVID but an autopsy had not been performed and the official cause of death not release but the Gov. reported the CT had the first confirmed infant death due to COVID. I am not speculating or SPECULATING it appears to be happening. You can't stick to the facts when you rely on the politicians and media to provide your facts. There is enough dramatics over this to warrant question. I think something as serious as this deserves scrutiny wouldn't you say?

The inflated death numbers in Italy seem to be suffering the same lack of scrutiny. The Italian doctors themselves are stating that a large number of people who have died in the hospitals that had COVID did not actually die from COVID but due to other preexisting conditions such as heart disease, diabetes or other common causes of death. That said the deaths have been labeled caused by COVID when that is not exactly accurate.

You might ask yourself why you are personally invested in an outcome one way or the other. Me? I tend to question a rapid and mass change of direction for any reason.