Coronavirus Outbreak

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Persistence of coronaviruses on inanimate surfaces and their inactivation with biocidal agents

https://www.journalofhospitalinfection.com/article/S0195-6701(20)30046-3/pdf

On just plain soap:

https://twitter.com/PalliThordarson/status/1236549305189597189

1/25 Part 1 - Why does soap work so well on the SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus and indeed most viruses? Because it is a self-assembled nanoparticle in which the weakest link is the lipid (fatty) bilayer. A two part thread about soap, viruses and supramolecular chemistry

2/25 The soap dissolves the fat membrane and the virus falls apart like a house of cards and "dies", or rather, we should say it becomes inactive as viruses aren’t really alive. Viruses can be active outside the body for hours, even days.

3/25 Disinfectants, or liquids, wipes, gels and creams containing alcohol (and soap) have a similar effects but are not really quite as good as normal soap. Apart from the alcohol and soap, the “antibacterial agents” in these products don't affect the virus structure much at all.

4/25 Consequently, many antibacterial products are basically just an expensive version of soap in terms of how they act on viruses. Soap is the best but alcohol wipes are good when soap is not practical or handy (e.g. office receptions).


The right way to test - outdoors in your car, like in South Korea. Latest data is that the virus can linger in air for up to 30 minutes.:

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Countries with effective control efforts have linear growth curves:

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On herd immunity:

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One advantage the shale oil people have is that fracking is relatively easy to ramp up and down as needed. It will have economic effects locally and some small/marginal businesses may go under, but the bigger boys have the resources to stay dormant for a while then pick back up when prices come back.
If they weren't already so incredibly mired in debt and in bad shape from existing low oil prices, that would be more encouraging. Anyway, oil went back up a bit today, but I haven't checked right this instant. AND expect eventual bailouts and other things like lost pay guarantees for people staying home from work all funded, of course, with borrowed money to continue to spend far more than that which we can pay for through tax receipts. Of course, this will never be paid back, but this is also one of the reasons that interest rates must be held artificially low which as a side effect encourages all kinds of bad, speculative behavior - if rates should go up to where they should be if they weren't artificially held low (the control of which could be lost at any time), the interest on the national debt would become ruinous.
 
Because it's just too much effort to check here, too, just to be safe?

Airport Says DHS Not Screening People Coming Into US From Virus-Stricken Italy Or South Korea
10 Mar 2020

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/ai...coming-us-virus-stricken-italy-or-south-korea

A major airport in Atlanta has admitted that neither its own officials, nor the Department of Homeland Security are screening travellers arriving from Italy or South Korea, two countries where the coronavirus has hit the hardest outside of China.

Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport in Atlanta, Georgia announced that while the CDC has demanded screening of passengers from China and Iran, no such screening is taking place for those coming in from Italy/South Korea, “because those countries are doing exit screenings.”

So, essentially, officials in the US are relying on the word of their foreign counterparts that sufficient screening is happening before people leave.

This jives with reports from those entering the US after returning from Italy, confirming that they were not stopped or screened.

Italy was yesterday placed on complete lockdown after deaths increased by nearly 60 percent overnight. From today, the movement of Italy’s population of 60 million has been severely limited by the government there, with travel only being permitted for “urgent, verifiable work situations and emergencies or health reasons”.


https://twitter.com/ATLairport/status/1236641227119960064

"As per the CDC, In the US, airports are conducting entry screening for travelers from China and Iran. People aren’t being screened when they arrive from Italy/South Korea, because those countries are doing exit screenings."

EDIT: Of course, it's far from perfect even if they do:

Why airport screening won’t stop the spread of coronavirus
By Dennis Normile • Mar. 6, 2020

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/why-airport-screening-wont-stop-spread-coronavirus

Exit and entry screening may look reassuring, but experience with other diseases shows it’s exceedingly rare for screeners to detect infected passengers. Just last week, eight passengers who later tested positive for COVID-19 arrived in Shanghai from Italy and passed the airport screeners unnoticed, for example. And even if screeners do find the occasional case, it has almost no impact on the course of an outbreak.

There are many ways infected people can slip through the net. Thermal scanners and handheld thermometers aren’t perfect. The biggest shortcoming is that they measure skin temperature, which can be higher or lower than core body temperature, the key metric for fevers. The devices produce false positives as well as false negatives, according to the EU Health Programme. (Travelers flagged as feverish by scanners typically go through a secondary screening where oral, ear, or armpit thermometers are used to confirm the person’s temperature.)

Passengers can also take fever-suppressing drugs or lie about their symptoms and where they have been (to avoid an enforced 14-day quarantine). Most importantly, infected people still in their incubation phase—meaning they don’t have symptoms—are often missed. For COVID-19, that period can be anywhere between 2 and 14 days.
 
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So sometimes they pull information from behind a paywall that is correct, and other times they pull information from behind a paywall that is incorrect. But that makes them reliable?

It's pretty obvious anyone that disagrees or questions Winston get's put on his ignore list. I've already called him out on citing ZeroHedge and he's ignored that completely so I really doubt he's going to answer your rather reasonable question. Apparently his mantra is think less and panic more.

Oh well. It's his choice to be petty.
 
Covid 19 is just like flying an E9 cluster where you unpackaged and mixed up all the motors while ignoring the manfacture dates or the ones you bought at the garage sale. Insert Case , Case. Hookup Cluster, Cluster. Then Kaboom!

Get ready for the big CATO folks!

Next time we will have the Singapore Pink Book and abide by their Saftey Code.
 

One amazing item covered in the video:

More counties shift away from coronavirus quarantines
MARCH 10, 2020

https://www.latimes.com/california/...quarantines-urge-firms-to-allow-telecommuting

SACRAMENTO — Two more counties have announced a shift Tuesday from trying to contain COVID-19 to accepting that the disease is spreading too fast for widespread quarantining measures to be realistic or effective.

Public health officials in Placer and Yolo counties, which neighbor Sacramento County to the northeast and west, urged businesses to allow employees to telecommute where possible and for large events to be postponed or canceled.

“This is a critical moment in the growing outbreak of COVID-19 in the region, and decisive action is needed to slow the spread of the disease,” the counties said in a news release Tuesday.
[and that is exactly the opposite of what you just did - W]

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‘It’s Just Everywhere Already’: How Delays in Testing Set Back the U.S. Coronavirus Response
A series of missed chances by the federal government to ensure more widespread testing came during the early days of the outbreak, when containment would have been easier.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/coronavirus-testing-delays.html

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When they're too stupid or complacent to even properly protect themselves. From the British "stiff upper lip" to viral pneumonia and permanent organ and neurological damage.

Coronavirus: UK Health Minister Nadine Dorries tests positive for COVID-19
The MP has voted twice in the House of Commons in the past week - likely meaning she has been in contact with hundreds of MPs.
11 Mar 2020

https://news.sky.com/story/nadine-dorries-health-minister-tests-positive-for-coronavirus-11954928
 
S@%t just got real in WA/King County. Statewide, all gatherings of more than 250 people are banned. In King County, everything over 250 is banned plus any gathering under 250 needs to meet a bunch of new restrictions, including banning people from being within 6' of others for more than 10 minutes. Presumably that doesn't apply to your table group at a restaurant, but I'm not 100% sure. "Gatherings" are extremely broadly described as bascialyl any group of people for any reason (see more here), and presumably include restaurants and bars. Seattle Public Schools are closing tomorrow for 2 weeks, and I would expect all other public schools in the county to follow suit.
 
So we have taken the first step down the slippery slope:

The New York governor "Cuomo" has called out the National Guard to supposedly assist with cleaning and food delivery in a one square area near New Your City. But as of right now folks can continue to come and go as they like.

Next it will be we have to widen the containment area because the one square mile area isn't working and the National Guard will assist local law enforcement in maintaining the new 3 or 4 mile area. Folks in the area will only be allowed to travel within the containment. The National Guard will continue to deliver food and clean areas.

Next the containment is not working FEMA and DHS will move in with the assistance of the National Guard to maintain order and all residents within the area will be required to stay in their homes. The National Guard will continue to clean and deliver food.

The virus continues to spread and for the safety of all everybody within the containment will be evacuated to FEMA/DHS relocation camps in New Jersey. The National Guard will continue to clean and deliver food.

AND IT BEGINS
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I see how moving to Jersey would be concerning.
 
S@%t just got real in WA/King County. Statewide, all gatherings of more than 250 people are banned. In King County, everything over 250 is banned plus any gathering under 250 needs to meet a bunch of new restrictions, including banning people from being within 6' of others for more than 10 minutes. Presumably that doesn't apply to your table group at a restaurant, but I'm not 100% sure. "Gatherings" are extremely broadly described as bascialyl any group of people for any reason (see more here), and presumably include restaurants and bars. Seattle Public Schools are closing tomorrow for 2 weeks, and I would expect all other public schools in the county to follow suit.
If this gets me out of jury duty on Monday, I'll be sooooooo happy.
 
They've admitted to a low number of cases. It's not clear to me they're doing much in the way of testing or sharing what information they do have. It may be like the US a few days ago when it was around but hadn't been officially detected in any great quantity.
 
White House told federal health agency to classify coronavirus deliberations

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The White House has ordered federal health officials to treat top-level coronavirus meetings as classified, an unusual step that has restricted information and hampered the U.S. government’s response to the contagion, according to four Trump administration officials.


https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ronavirus-deliberations-sources-idUSKBN20Y2LM

They are mismanaging this response, and it’s going to cost lives.
 
Welp, just received word that my company's technical professionals' development conference in Virginia (end of this month was cancelled)...….l...….
 
Tell me how would you like to see your government respond to this?

Jumping in line ahead of Thirsty...

* Don't classify briefings so that everyone who needs to be at the briefing can go (a similar article I read said that there were critical HHS staff who couldn't attend briefings because they didn't have security clearances)
* Assume that other people's work is useful (look around the world at what other groups are doing and what was successful)
* Use information from China, though with a grain of salt (we didn't use the test information that China developed because (a) we weren't sure if it was accurate [it was] and (b) CDC wanted to combine the COVID-19 test with another flu test. That slowed us down by a week or two.)
* Don't politicize the outbreak from the beginning (many examples, initial descriptions of COVID-19 as a hoax and wearing a campaign hat to CDC are two egregious ones)
* Put scientists in charge and don't hide information (Early in the epidemic, Fauci was scheduled to be on all 5 major Sunday morning news shows, and all stops were cancelled)
* Assume that border/immigration controls won't stop the virus
* Make test kits available early even if people didn't travel to China (Seattle flu researchers found the first community spread case when they went against CDC rules and ran a test on someone with no connection to China. That allowed more tests to be done, identifying the outbreak at the long term care facility here. By the time those tests were confirmed, it was too late to stop the outbreak at the care facility.)
* Start off aggressive (we probably should have closed schools in Seattle a week ago)

There's probably more, but others can fill in.
 
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