you are absolutely correct. The data we have is the data we have. you just have to understand the limitations of the data you’re working with.
Coronavirus: What questions do you have?
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ThirstyBarbarian
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The flu has been around for what? Thousands of years? I think they probably have a method for extrapolating from tested cases of flu to the estimated total cases.
This virus is new. They are explicitly saying they don’t know for certain how widespread it is. So my point is that it’s misleading to say the WHO number is wrong when the WHO is saying their numbers are based on reported cases and known number of deaths. They are reporting on known and verified facts. You could say MOST LIKELY, there are a significant number of unreported cases, so the actual mortality rate is PROBABLY lower, and you would have a GOOD CHANCE that your GUESS was correct. But you can’t really put a number on that.
Stocking up on pop tarts and spam has its own risks!
NateB
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What do you mean by "common flu"? I don't mean to sound demeaning, but many people talk about the "stomach flu" or "24 hour flu" which is almost always gastroenteritis and very often food poisoning. Influenza is the only flu and if you did not test positive for it by a lab test it wasn't reported. They may try to estimate cases of the population that may not have sought care, but if you didn't go to a doctor or ER and get a positive flu test, you aren't part of the confirmed case statistic.
ThirstyBarbarian
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Agreed. I’m hoping we can start getting some better data.
ThreeJsDad
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I hope you realize I was completely joking. I recently beat Diabetes and I have no interest in going backwards....
Good question, I should have said "Typical Season Flu", which is an aggregate of several sub-types of flu as referenced on Wiki's site https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza
Even in the case of a "normal" flu, wouldn't "reported" cases only be those that end up in a doctor's office or hospital and thus reported to the CDC through those channels? Chuck?
You are correct. Even influenza is nto a single illness. It is actually 3 related viruses - Influenza A, B, and C. They are related (sort of) but completely different viruses. Even two influenza As such as H1N1 or H3N2 are completely different. Even more confusing - two H1N1 viruses may be different.
The numbers of Influenza reported are positive tests and not suspected cases and not all patients with influenza are tested. Many physicians treat without a test and a test costs money. It is a cost saving measure but it eliminates confirmation. Also, not all medical offices communicate number with the CDC.
ThirstyBarbarian
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Wow! So in a year when the CDC says there were 30 million cases of the flu, those are all tested, confirmed cases? That’s kind of amazing. I would not have guessed there were that many tests done each year.
dr wogz
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Dr. Chuck,
What about 'on surfaces'? I recently discovered there is some concern in our assembly shop, due to this. We've recently received our parts, and some are afraid to touch them. Yes, they come from China. And yes, most are by boat, but some are airfreight to us... so this is the concern, that a part might have been touched in less than a week before we get it..
What about 'on surfaces'? I recently discovered there is some concern in our assembly shop, due to this. We've recently received our parts, and some are afraid to touch them. Yes, they come from China. And yes, most are by boat, but some are airfreight to us... so this is the concern, that a part might have been touched in less than a week before we get it..
Lemmings. Unless you suspect that a) your municipal water company will shut down or b) you live in a high rise building which may require repairs while many plumbers and maintenance people are out or quarantined.
I would still suspect that a portion of a number like 30 million is a) assumed by the doctor's diagnosis even without test, or b) extrapolated using statistically valid tools (that don't exist for new and novel viruses).
Or they have reasonable concerns based on their circumstances. As an example, if you live in a high density residential building their plumbing systems typically have far more interruptions in service. These repairs are serviced by private plumbers. It is logical and reasonable to take lessons from what has occurred over and over, and that is self-isolation, which could easily lead to delays in service calls. In other words you could be without water for several days in worst cases, vs. the normal several hours.
Or you could just go with your well thought out "lemmings" theory.
Hello Cwbullet. Thanks for providing this thread to answer questions.
With regard to UV killing corona virus on surfaces, do we know if there is a specific wavelength? Also is there any info on the necessary exposure time and intensity of UV to kill the virus? Also is this typical of most viruses or just this one.
With regard to UV killing corona virus on surfaces, do we know if there is a specific wavelength? Also is there any info on the necessary exposure time and intensity of UV to kill the virus? Also is this typical of most viruses or just this one.
I have not gotten an answer on this yet. There is a little here: https://www.genengnews.com/topics/t...-for-humans-but-bad-for-bacteria-and-viruses/
There are a number of products already out there. I have to research this further. A number of producers we're at the conference for log guys to look at. I just did not have time to ask.
+1
Thank you for providing a thread that is measured and sober providing practical answers to genuine concerns rather than the cut and paste hysteria that seems to have invaded social media.
Just glad to share. Keep The sanitizer flowing.
Thank you sir. I'd asked my doctor about the seasonal aspects of things like the flu before and he thought it had to do with people being indoors and together more. UV susceptibility has a solid, measurable scientific aspect to it. While the social habits may play into it as well, that UV factor makes a lot of sense to me.
Don't forget summer break for school. I think it could be summarized as social distancing with a bit of help from mother nature's disinfectant, the sun.
John Taylor
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Dr. Chuck,
Thanks for answering my question about Tysabri.
On a positive note I have not been sick with so much as a cold let alone fly for over 25 years.
Thanks for answering my question about Tysabri.
On a positive note I have not been sick with so much as a cold let alone fly for over 25 years.
cbrarick
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and the fun part is that mild coronavirus and flu look pretty much the same.
Either way you're asked to stay home and hydrate, so no test
we'll never know the total number effected, so 3.4% is probably high because inly some have been tested
Either way you're asked to stay home and hydrate, so no test
we'll never know the total number effected, so 3.4% is probably high because inly some have been tested
You are correct. Even influenza is not a single illness.
I work for a hospital with 60K beneficiaries. We see about 1000 per week in our ER and 5000 in primary care. We have had roughly 2700 tests with about 400 positive for Flu A and 300 for Flu B. That is a single hospital with a relatively slow ER.
There is also the fact that we spend a lot more time in the Petri dishes we call a home.
BF Rockets
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Why do so many people go to the hospital or urgent care to be tested for flu? Seems like a waste of resources. Unless you think you may have something else like Strep that is treatable. There are a number of people at work who have tested positive for flu this year, all of them had flu shots.Don't understand the logic there.
I did. I was joke also. Except for a few compounds like arsenic, even foods like spam and pop tarts are ok in moderation.
Flu shots provide herd immunity but it is not 100% coverage. It helps prevent like 50% of the infections and death. You are doing it more for your elderly mother or dad than yourself, but it even helps you.
Why do we test? Surveillance and to confirm conserve resources. We should test all before we treat because the medications are expensive and over use of antivirals are not advised.
Some patients get serotype testing. We do 10 a week in my facility. These tests are very important. They are sent to the CDC for serotype testing (H1N1, H1N2, etc). This way we can use statistical models to determine how well the current shots work and plan for next year.
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