Coronavirus Outbreak

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And now, some comic relief:

38% Of People In Survey Are Avoiding Corona Beer Due To Coronavirus
2 Mar 2020

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/38-people-survey-are-avoiding-corona-beer-due-coronavirus

A survey of more than 700 beer drinkers has revealed some stunning results. First, there are apparently no signs of intelligent life for the human race left on Earth. And second, people are completely ignorant as to what the coronavirus is, how it is transmitted and what can be done to prevent it.

We say that because 38% of those people surveyed have said they "would not, under any circumstances," buy Corona beer as a result of the deadly coronavirus spreading, according to KRON/CNN. There's obviously zero link between the two, aside from them both having similar names.

16% of the people surveyed said they "were not sure" whether the virus is related to Corona beer and 14% of respondents who regularly drink Corona beer said they would no longer order it in public.

Ronn Torossian, Founder and CEO of 5WPR, the public relations firm that conducted the survey said: "There is no question that Corona beer is suffering because of the coronavirus. Could one imagine walking into a bar and saying 'Hey, can I have a Corona?' or 'Pass me A Corona'?"

He continued: "While the brand has claimed that consumers understand there's no linkage between the virus and the beer company, this is a disaster for the Corona brand. After all, what brand wants to be linked to a virus which is killing people worldwide?"

Constellation brands, brewer of the beer, says the timing couldn't be worse. They were on the precipice of introducing a new Corona branded hard-seltzer product for the summertime. Promotion for the drink, which uses the phrase “coming ashore soon”, [LOL! -W] has already been criticized.
 
I think the flu comparison really gives a false sense of security. The worst case is really pretty bad unfortunately, especially if you are or have loved ones who are in an at risk category.
 
I'm not really sure how your point is relevant to the issue at hand. 330,000,000 people in the us, let's say 33% get coronavirus, let's say the death rate is at the low end of 1%. That's over a million dead.
 
The issue isn't number of deaths from the flu, it's the rate of fatalities to infections. Millions get the flu every year. So far millions don't have corona. If the number of exposures to corona equal that of exposure to the flu, as it stands 61,000 deaths will seem pretty tame.
 
Exactly. And unfortunately we just don't have good data about what's been going on in China. As things progress in South Korea which is the only country with aggressive testing and transparency we'll get a much better idea of the real world transmission and death rates. Until then I think either full blown panic or full blown blowing this off are equally silly.
 
Winston said:
I don't know how many doctors I've now read or heard who are so sick of that relativism. This virus is at least twice as contagious as the common seasonal flu varieties and at a minimum two to four times as deadly. So, twice as contagious and, as a middle ground, three times as deadly = 6. Multiply those figures by AT LEAST 6. Actually much more because those common flu figures are with a vaccine and with existing herd immunity.
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I agree Winston.

It seems that some people's optimism bias doesn't allow them to get over the talking points that some folks in the mainstream insist on sticking to. I find their arguments overly simplistic and void of the "facts", or numbers, as we know them today. I have noticed a sharp decline on people repeating those talking points as the numbers start to roll in and we understand more about it.
 
Eljay said:
I'm not really sure how your point is relevant to the issue at hand. 330,000,000 people in the us, let's say 33% get coronavirus, let's say the death rate is at the low end of 1%. That's over a million dead.
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Given the aggressive response by govt agencies, testing, intention to quarantine infected, and so on, it is highly unlikely it will spread so deeply into the population before warm weather reduces the degree of contagiousness. None of these measures are taken in all but the worst flu outbreaks in the deadliest flu variant seasons.

Stay alert, use good hygiene, follow instructions....
 
Eljay said:
I'm not really sure how your point is relevant to the issue at hand. 330,000,000 people in the us, let's say 33% get coronavirus, let's say the death rate is at the low end of 1%. That's over a million dead.
Click to expand...
https://www.skepticalraptor.com/ske...lu-season-interim-statistics-7-million-cases/ In the last flu season between 6 and 7 million people contracted the flu. Why do you imagine that there will be a 15 fold increase in the amount of people contracting the flu this season
 
Eljay said:
I'm not really sure how your point is relevant to the issue at hand. 330,000,000 people in the us, let's say 33% get coronavirus, let's say the death rate is at the low end of 1%. That's over a million dead.
Click to expand...
That's also a lot of "if's".
 
Rocket86 said:
The issue isn't number of deaths from the flu, it's the rate of fatalities to infections. Millions get the flu every year. So far millions don't have corona. If the number of exposures to corona equal that of exposure to the flu, as it stands 61,000 deaths will seem pretty tame.
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You need some remedial math help. if 7,000,000 people get the corona virus and 1% die that's a total of 70,000 deaths. Tragic, but still pretty tame. 61,000 people died in the 2018-2-19 flu season. Do you remember any aggressive quarantining or testing or media coverage or awareness beyond getting a flu shot? I don.'t I'm willing to bet that there'll be FEWER flu deaths due to flu this, especially since warm weather causes virii to die. May I remind you that SPRING, a season where warm weather begins to arrive is about 3 weeks away>
 
mpitfield said:
I agree Winston.

It seems that some people's optimism bias doesn't allow them to get over the talking points that some folks in the mainstream insist on sticking to. I find their arguments overly simplistic and void of the "facts", or numbers, as we know them today. I have noticed a sharp decline on people repeating those talking points as the numbers start to roll in and we understand more about it.
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Really? I think your response is a bunch of "overs" Over wrought Over thought, and Over complicated. Besides, you're a Canuck with terrific free health care. You shouldn't have a care in the world......or should you
 
As I understand it, for the most part when you are symptomatic with teh common flu, that is when you are contagious. That does not appear to be the case with covid19. The current belief,at least last time I checked, is that you are contagious almost immediately and you can feel and appear a-symptomatic for up to 24 days or slightly higher in extreme cases, but typically 3-5 days.

Think about how many people you could potentially be within the 6' radius of someone who is contagious withing those 3-5 days and you can quickly see how this thing is unusually challenging to contain.

I am all for trying to remain cautiously optimistic, but I believe that naive optimism is what is contributing to this thing spreading. This is a simple numbers game, if everyone avoided unnecessary person to person contact, self-isolated and wore masks, whether they were infected or not, this thing would blow-over in record time.
 
WhiskyTangoFoxtrot said:
Why do you imagine that there will be a 15 fold increase in the amount of people contracting the flu this season
Click to expand...

Flu has a vaccine and herd immunity for one thing.

You're also being wildly optimistic about the effect of spring given the number of quite warm countries the virus has been spreading in.
 
WhiskyTangoFoxtrot said:
Really? I think your response is a bunch of "overs" Over wrought Over thought, and Over complicated. Besides, you're a Canuck with terrific free health care. You shouldn't have a care in the world......or should you
Click to expand...

Spoken like someone who knows nothing, except what they hear about our healthcare system. I am so sick and tired of hearing about how good our "free" healthcare system is, primarily from your politicians.

Let me tell you about our healthcare system. FIrst off "free" it is not, I pay more in taxes than you could even imagine, all for second rate service. My father died from lung cancer in 2016, it took close to a year to simply get diagnosed, yes just the diagnosis. My mother died several years later from Alzheimers, in a nursing home. The care in the fist home was third world, the second was fine, but it took 8 months to get her into the second home. I called my GP two weeks ago to get an appointment for pneumonia, as a secondary infection from the common flu, my appointment is March 9th.

You need to get a grip on reality and stick to things you think you know something about, because you know nothing about the Canadian health care system, except what some of your politicians are trying to sell you.
 
mpitfield said:
As I understand it, for the most part when you are symptomatic with teh common flu, that is when you are contagious. That does not appear to be the case with covid19. The current belief,at least last time I checked, is that you are contagious almost immediately and you can feel and appear a-symptomatic for up to 24 days or slightly higher in extreme cases, but typically 3-5 days.

Think about how many people you could potentially be within the 6' radius of someone who is contagious withing those 3-5 days and you can quickly see how this thing is unusually challenging to contain.

I am all for trying to remain cautiously optimistic, but I believe that naive optimism is what is contributing to this thing spreading. This is a simple numbers game, if everyone avoided unnecessary person to person contact, self-isolated and wore masks, whether they were infected or not, this thing would blow-over in record time.
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So you believe that naïve optimism is contributing to the spreading? What a crock of s#$%. You want to play a numbers game. 18,000 Americans have died from flu this flu season. Where was all the hand wringing over that number of deaths? Where was it"? We'll see if 43,000 die from the corona virus and allows last years death toll to be equaled. Sorry to bust yours and everyone else's apocalyptic fantasies, but it won't happen. I think ll you nervous nellies are just a bunch of death lovers
 
WhiskyTangoFoxtrot said:
So you believe that naïve optimism is contributing to the spreading? What a crock of s#$%. You want to play a numbers game. 18,000 Americans have died from flu this flu season. Where was all the hand wringing over that number of deaths? Where was it"? We'll see if 43,000 die from the corona virus and allows last years death toll to be equaled. Sorry to bust yours and everyone else's apocalyptic fantasies, but it won't happen. I think ll you nervous nellies are just a bunch of death lovers
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Are you aware how remarkably condescending you sound, and how useless it makes your talking points when you come across that way? No one actually listens when you behave like that.
 
I think he's just trolling us. I looked at his post history and it seems to be his thing. Should have caught it earlier.
 
Winston said:
US mask production anecdote I found:

Mother-in-law works at 3M factory outside Omaha that is one of two facilities that make the N95 mask. They have been working them like dogs, Yesterday was her first day off in 28 days. They're running full capacity and backlogged now about 6 months for the medical masks. She and most of workers barely knew why they were so busy. She looked at amazon and case of 20 masks were $400! She said every time they switch machine over on production run they inspect 200 masks and most all are perfectly fine but they have to toss them. Wonder now how many will try to sneak them out and have a little side hustle, especially with how mgmt treats them.
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The problem with anecdotes is that people believe without verifying. The problem with repeating such anecdotes without checking to see if they are true is that you become part of the problem, fear mongering. Here’s a link to a 20 pack of 3M N95 masks for $80 and although stock is low they’re not depleted.

3M N95 Mask Performance Respirator 7048/8210 (20 Safety Respirator Particle Masks) https://www.amazon.com/dp/B084G975GB/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_api_i_-.wxEb98HXY5X
 
https://onlinenursing.duq.edu/when-flu-season/

Flu season typically falls sometime between the start of fall and the end of spring. For the past three decades, flu activity has peaked at some point between the months of October and February but always tapers off by April.

Peak Months of Flu Activity
Here is a breakdown of the “peak months of flu activity” over a 34-year period between 1982 and 2016:

February was the peak month for flu activity in 14 of the 34 flu seasons, making it the most common month for peak flu activity.
December followed February, with the highest flu activity in seven of the 34 flu seasons.
March is third, with flu activity peaking this month in six seasons during the 34-season period.
January was the least common month to facilitate peak flu activity, with the flu peaking this month in only five of the 34 flu seasons.

Read it and weep death lovers

Guess the Corona Virus has average about 1300 deaths a day before the end of the months to beat lasts years fatality record
 
Agreed. I just did the same thing and being a useful contributor was clearly never his intent. I think he's just trolling us. I looked at his post history and it seems to be his thing. Should have caught it earlier.

Both of you: Tell me my points weren't valid when the flu season is over. Sorry. I'm not given over to hysteria and hand-wringing and woe is me ism. You obvious are.
 
CalebJ said:
Are you aware how remarkably condescending you sound, and how useless it makes your talking points when you come across that way? No one actually listens when you behave like that.
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Right. They llsten to posters who say stuff like naïve optimism makes this "epidemic" /"outbreak" worse, don't they
 
CalebJ said:
It's as if you think your points are somehow relevant to the conversation that's happening...
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Talk to me when this is all over and you've got egg dripping all over your face. You've drank the Kool Aid pitcher dry, bucko
 
WhiskyTangoFoxtrot said:
You need some remedial math help. if 7,000,000 people get the corona virus and 1% die that's a total of 70,000 deaths. Tragic, but still pretty tame. 61,000 people died in the 2018-2-19 flu season. Do you remember any aggressive quarantining or testing or media coverage or awareness beyond getting a flu shot? I don.'t I'm willing to bet that there'll be FEWER flu deaths due to flu this, especially since warm weather causes virii to die. May I remind you that SPRING, a season where warm weather begins to arrive is about 3 weeks away>
Click to expand...

I don’t think that’s what that article is saying. The 7 million cases was the number that had occurred for the flu season up to that point, not the whole season.

Here are some stats on the number of flu cases by year for the past decade. It looks like 30 million or so is typical. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

Really, we don’t know enough about this virus yet to make comparisons. It seems to spread fast and it seems to kill patients at a higher rate than flu, but it’s too new to quantify the difference yet. We will start getting better data soon. Until then, it’s not something we should be dismissing as harmless, but there’s probably no need for panic either.
 
WhiskyTangoFoxtrot said:
https://onlinenursing.duq.edu/when-flu-season/

Flu season typically falls sometime between the start of fall and the end of spring. For the past three decades, flu activity has peaked at some point between the months of October and February but always tapers off by April.

Peak Months of Flu Activity
Here is a breakdown of the “peak months of flu activity” over a 34-year period between 1982 and 2016:

February was the peak month for flu activity in 14 of the 34 flu seasons, making it the most common month for peak flu activity.
December followed February, with the highest flu activity in seven of the 34 flu seasons.
March is third, with flu activity peaking this month in six seasons during the 34-season period.
January was the least common month to facilitate peak flu activity, with the flu peaking this month in only five of the 34 flu seasons.

Read it and weep death lovers

Guess the Corona Virus has average about 1300 deaths a day before the end of the months to beat lasts years fatality record
Click to expand...
Your argument is a false equivalency and is based on flawed logic.

The common flu, is not new, it is everywhere and has been for, I am not sure, but a very long time. It doesn't go away it just has peaks and downs and evolves along the way. As a result we have some tools to mitigate the spread through vaccination. I realize there is room for discussion on how effective the vaccine is, but as someone who is a diabetic and gets a flu shot I can tell you that my symptoms are typically mild, if any. This year I didn't get my shot and I have suffered from that, at least I believe so.

Covid19, is new and started, arguably depending on who you believe, somewhere late November or sometime in December. I realize corona viruses are not new, but this one is unique.

Taking all of that into consideration, as well as the R number, which makes this much more transmittable than the flu, the higher death rate and the extended asymptotic contagious period, this is not equivalent to the common flu.

I don't disagree that there are unscrupulous individuals doing their thing and exploiting the situation. That seems to be human nature, we are an opportunistic species. Nor do I believe that the sky of falling. Most will be okay, but a lot won't.

I also have two children who are asthmatic and prone to pneumonia, so I feel a increased sense of responsibility to take precautions. That makes me a good parent in my mind, not an irrational nutter as you seem to want to paint anyone who takes this more serious than you.
 
Time will te
mpitfield said:
Your argument is a false equivalency and is based on flawed logic.

The common flu, is not new, it is everywhere and has been for, I am not sure, but a very long time. It doesn't go away it just has peaks and downs and evolves along the way. As a result we have some tools to mitigate the spread through vaccination. I realize there is room for discussion on how effective the vaccine is, but as someone who is a diabetic and gets a flu shot I can tell you that my symptoms are typically mild, if any. This year I didn't get my shot and I have suffered from that, at least I believe so.

Covid19, is new and started, arguably depending on who you believe, somewhere late November or sometime in December. I realize corona viruses are not new, but this one is unique.

Taking all of that into consideration, as well as the R number, which makes this much more transmittable than the flu, the higher death rate and the extended asymptotic contagious period, this is not equivalent to the common flu.

I don't disagree that there are unscrupulous individuals doing their thing and exploiting the situation. That seems to be human nature, we are an opportunistic species. Nor do I believe that the sky of falling. Most will be okay, but a lot won't.

I also have two children who are asthmatic and prone to pneumonia, so I feel a increased sense of responsibility to take precautions. That makes me a good parent in my mind, not an irrational nutter as you seem to want to paint anyone who takes this more serious than you.
Click to expand...
The same thing was said about SARS MERS and Swine Flu (Covid19, is new and started, arguably depending on who you believe, somewhere late November or sometime in December. I realize corona viruses are not new, but this one is unique.)
 
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