With progressive (humped) thrust curves like on smoke motors, the average thrust is really misleading as to the actual initial liftoff thrust.
It is "easy" to estimate speed off rail, but again their are complications. How long is the rail exactly? How long till the first button is off the rail? (now your effective rail is shorter). How high does the rocket sit on the pad, is the aft button flush with rail bottom, or does it sit higher up because of the blast deflector? (Now the rail is even shorter)
As an engineer I dislike rules of thumb when designing a rocket, but once I've flown one a couple times and know the behavior, its nice to be able to pick and fly motors without running through two spreadsheets or simulations.
Remember that for general sport flying, not everyone is a rocket scientist. The rules work pretty dang well and keep the line moving smoothly instead of having each RSO check become a long technical discussion involving printouts and calculators.
Extreme projects and cert flights of course get more scrutiny as they should.