Thoughts and Comments on Current Russian,Ukrainian Conflict/War

[afadeev]

Looks like we are gonna give them F16 that we are retiring.

While I'm all for supplying Ukraine with everything they need to defeat Russia, F16s will present the most expensive as well as the most vulnerable platform we can give them.

F16 require well supplied, centralized and sophisticated air field infrastructure, not the distributed airfields and impromptu runways that UA AF has used to survive to date. That centralized infrastructure will become obvious and vulnerable target for Russian ballistic missiles, from which Ukraine has no defense at the present time. So now you overlay the expanse requirements for effective multi-tiered AAA coverage of those assets.
https://www.defensenews.com/opinion...not-f-16s-are-a-winning-strategy-for-ukraine/
All of the above is possible, but you also need to optimize ROI on what is likely to have become a fixed budget from US congressional funding perspective.
I'm not sure that building air superiority capability for UA AF is viable anymore.
https://rusi.org/explore-our-resear...ir-war-and-ukrainian-requirements-air-defence

a

 

[cwbullet]

While I'm all for supplying Ukraine with everything they need to defeat Russia, F16s will present the most expensive as well as the most vulnerable platform we can give them.

F16 require well supplied, centralized and sophisticated air field infrastructure, not the distributed airfields and impromptu runways that UA AF has used to survive to date. That centralized infrastructure will become obvious and vulnerable target for Russian ballistic missiles, from which Ukraine has no defense at the present time. So now you overlay the expanse requirements for effective multi-tiered AAA coverage of those assets.
https://www.defensenews.com/opinion...not-f-16s-are-a-winning-strategy-for-ukraine/
All of the above is possible, but you also need to optimize ROI on what is likely to have become a fixed budget from US congressional funding perspective.
I'm not sure that building air superiority capability for UA AF is viable anymore.
https://rusi.org/explore-our-resear...ir-war-and-ukrainian-requirements-air-defence

a

You might be correct. Russian certain has not attained air superiority to the degree we would. US appears to be reversing on the decision to give F16s.

 

[smstachwick]

You might be correct. Russian certain has not attained air superiority to the degree we would. US appears to be reversing on the decision to give F16s.

A well-supported helicopter fleet would be less vulnerable to airfield attack, although some of the logistics and training challenges would remain and it would be less useful for taking down aerial threats.

I wonder if that’s something under consideration for supplying.

 

[cls]

...distributed airfields and impromptu runways that UA AF has used to survive to date.

SAABs are built for exactly that. But I don't know anything about their capabilities vs what's required for air defense.

 

[boatgeek]

A well-supported helicopter fleet would be less vulnerable to airfield attack, although some of the logistics and training challenges would remain and it would be less useful for taking down aerial threats.

I wonder if that’s something under consideration for supplying.

Helicopters are also in much greater danger from MANPADS than fixed wing aircraft.

It would be reasonable to put an F-16 base under the umbrella of one of the forthcoming Patriot systems used to protect cities against ballistic missiles.

 

[Antares JS]

The issue with F-16's is, again, pilot training and maintenance training. It doesn't do much good to give them F-16's if they have no pilots who can fly them and no mechanics who know how to fix them. It would likely be better for other Eastern European countries to give them any Soviet-era jets they have lying around that Ukrainians might actually know how to fly and maintain.

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

I think there are two kinds of military aid now in the pipeline.

One is the kind that Ukraine can use immediately for the fight that is happening right now. These are the less sophisticated systems they’ve proven they can use very effectively and can maintain and support. These are also less expensive and something we can provide in quantity from our stock.

The other kind are the sophisticated and expensive kind that require lots of training to use effectively and lots of difficult maintenance and logistics to support. Systems like the Patriot missiles, M1 Abrams, and F16s might not end up contributing a lot to the current war. But when this war ends, they will be part of the powerful military deterrence that will keep this from happening again. Beginning to provide these systems now or even just announcing we will provide them is probably more about signaling our long-term commitment than it is about winning on the battlefield. I think it’s more about the diplomatic battle.

I also expect to see a lot of NATO members buying more of these kinds of sophisticated weapons systems. Some of the newer NATO members who were former Eastern Bloc countries still have a lot of Soviet era weapons. The Ukraine war has vacuumed up a good amount of this old equipment, and it has also highlighted how obsolete it is. These countries need to catch up to NATO standards ASAP. Start ordering the newer stuff today and send the older gear into the immediate fight in Ukraine right now. Ukraine can use quantity as well as it can use quality. I’m sure they would not say no to Soviet era tanks, planes, and air defense systems and could put them to use while the rest of NATO gets up to speed on the newer stuff.

 

[cautery]

I think there are two kinds of military aid now in the pipeline.

...Beginning to provide these systems now or even just announcing we will provide them is probably more about signaling our long-term commitment than it is about winning on the battlefield. I think it’s more about the diplomatic battle.

I also expect to see a lot of NATO members buying more of these kinds of sophisticated weapons systems. ... Start ordering the newer stuff today and send the older gear into the immediate fight in Ukraine right now. Ukraine can use quantity as well as it can use quality. I’m sure they would not say no to Soviet era tanks, planes, and air defense systems and could put them to use while the rest of NATO gets up to speed on the newer stuff.

Yes sir. I believe this may well be the precise thinking of the better strategic minds in the Pentagon at the moment. Unfortunately, there are a butt tonne of civilian bureaucrats, politicians, and leeches between them and where the metal meets the meat. And civilians with power always THINK they know better than the folks who have actually employed steel to end human life. In my decades, I have found that they, with rare exception, do not.

 

[Peartree]

I think there are two kinds of military aid now in the pipeline.

One is the kind that Ukraine can use immediately for the fight that is happening right now. These are the less sophisticated systems they’ve proven they can use very effectively and can maintain and support. These are also less expensive and something we can provide in quantity from our stock.

The other kind are the sophisticated and expensive kind that require lots of training to use effectively and lots of difficult maintenance and logistics to support. Systems like the Patriot missiles, M1 Abrams, and F16s might not end up contributing a lot to the current war. But when this war ends, they will be part of the powerful military deterrence that will keep this from happening again. Beginning to provide these systems now or even just announcing we will provide them is probably more about signaling our long-term commitment than it is about winning on the battlefield. I think it’s more about the diplomatic battle.

I also expect to see a lot of NATO members buying more of these kinds of sophisticated weapons systems. Some of the newer NATO members who were former Eastern Bloc countries still have a lot of Soviet era weapons. The Ukraine war has vacuumed up a good amount of this old equipment, and it has also highlighted how obsolete it is. These countries need to catch up to NATO standards ASAP. Start ordering the newer stuff today and send the older gear into the immediate fight in Ukraine right now. Ukraine can use quantity as well as it can use quality. I’m sure they would not say no to Soviet era tanks, planes, and air defense systems and could put them to use while the rest of NATO gets up to speed on the newer stuff.

And this is why the more likely scenario is that the US will concede to provide F-16's to nations like Poland who will, in turn, send their obsolete Soviet era jets to Ukraine. We sell F-16's, Poland gets a major upgrade and further detaches from Russian influence, Ukraine gets more fighting power without a huge delay in training. This also puts F-16's next door so that future training of Ukrainian pilots and aircrews can happen "locally." Win-win-win.

 

[shockie]

The use of tactical nukes on Ukraine by Russian look more likely with each passing day in my estimation.

This has become a proxy war against Russia by NATO and the US under the guide of protecting the democracy in Ukraine. Yeah right. It's an authoritarian regime.

WW3 has already began.

We all might not be here come 2024.

Are you prepared for Nuclear War?

 

[Steve Shannon]

The use of tactical nukes on Ukraine by Russian look more likely with each passing day in my estimation.

This has become a proxy war against Russia by NATO and the US under the guide of protecting the democracy in Ukraine. Yeah right. It's an authoritarian regime.

WW3 has already began.

We all might not be here come 2024.

Are you prepared for Nuclear War?

There have been a few members with the same concern.
Best wishes!

 

[cautery]

The use of tactical nukes on Ukraine by Russian look more likely with each passing day in my estimation.

This has become a proxy war against Russia by NATO and the US under the guide of protecting the democracy in Ukraine. Yeah right. It's an authoritarian regime.

WW3 has already began.

We all might not be here come 2024.

Are you prepared for Nuclear War?

Brother-man! I live right next door to the runway at Barksdale AFB. If this goes nuclear, I won't have much time to contemplate my preparedness sans a MACH1 capable VTOL aircraft.

And I know where I, and all the folks I love, are going when we leave here. If it is time for this world to conclude, there is not a thing you, I, or any other being in the Universe can do to change it.

 

[smstachwick]

The use of tactical nukes on Ukraine by Russian look more likely with each passing day in my estimation.

This has become a proxy war against Russia by NATO and the US under the guide of protecting the democracy in Ukraine. Yeah right. It's an authoritarian regime.

WW3 has already began.

We all might not be here come 2024.

Are you prepared for Nuclear War?

Is this based on any particular evidence or are you just being dramatic?

 

[boatgeek]

This is a kind of interesting review of one day's Russian attack orders in September on one village not far from Kherson. It describes a WWI-style engagement where artillery works the area all day and then artillery stops and troops move in during the afternoon. However, because there was lousy communication between units, the orders were given in a "you go here and be there by XX time, then go here by YY time." A quote out of the article:

The assault was not led in by a reconnaissance force. It is uncertain whether there was any reconnaissance at all. As previously described, there was no artillery support after the fire plan [morning artillery bombardment] lifted. The lack of artillery forward observers; the described inadequacies of tactical communications; and ‘old-fashioned’ fire control practices mean an infantry company cannot conduct dynamic or ‘on call’ offensive support. The Russian Army also lacks necessary ground-to-air communications and tactical air control parties, in Western-NATO nomenclature. There was therefore no support from tactical bombers (the Su-25 Grach ‘Rook’) or attack helicopters (the Ka-52 ‘Alligator’). The lack of ground-to-air communications and poor coordination, in fact, has led to fratricidal downings of attack helicopters. There was no engineer support. There was no battlefield ambulance. There was no coordination with flanking units or flanking actions. There was no surprise, deception or use of smoke to cover the assault group.

https://wavellroom.com/2023/02/01/anatomy-of-a-russian-army-village-assault/
It's mind-boggling that an army in the 21st century has no way for ground troops to talk to artillery or air assets and vice versa.

 

[Steve Shannon]

This is a kind of interesting review of one day's Russian attack orders in September on one village not far from Kherson. It describes a WWI-style engagement where artillery works the area all day and then artillery stops and troops move in during the afternoon. However, because there was lousy communication between units, the orders were given in a "you go here and be there by XX time, then go here by YY time." A quote out of the article:



https://wavellroom.com/2023/02/01/anatomy-of-a-russian-army-village-assault/
It's mind-boggling that an army in the 21st century has no way for ground troops to talk to artillery or air assets and vice versa.

Perhaps the Russian armed forces haven't seen the need or perhaps they never truly recovered since the fall of the Soviet Union. They haven't had a war with a technologically advanced and organized opposition in that time. They have mostly been fighting against tribes, militias, and other foes who were even worse equipped.

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

Are you prepared for Nuclear War?

Not really.

 

[smstachwick]

Perhaps the Russian armed forces haven't seen the need or perhaps they never truly recovered since the fall of the Soviet Union. They haven't had a war with a technologically advanced and organized opposition in that time. They have mostly been fighting against tribes, militias, and other foes who were even worse equipped.

Just like the European powers stomping on indigenous African and Southeast Asian peoples just prior to WWI. Interesting how the history rhymes.

 

[rocket_troy]

Perhaps the Russian armed forces haven't seen the need or perhaps they never truly recovered since the fall of the Soviet Union. They haven't had a war with a technologically advanced and organized opposition in that time. They have mostly been fighting against tribes, militias, and other foes who were even worse equipped.

Maybe more a case of negligence. Vlad & cronies have been concentrating on lining their endless pockets and protecting that racket from the victims (Russian people). It's not completely outside the bounds of reason that certain tactical elements of the Russian military were intentionally kept weak from becoming a political threat, although that doesn't quite reconcile with the intention of establishing the "Vlad the conqueror" legacy.

TP

 

[cls]

Just like the European powers stomping on indigenous African and Southeast Asian peoples just prior to WWI. Interesting how the history rhymes.

the Abyssinians (Ethiopians) kicked the Italians asses in 1890!!

 

[boatgeek]

Maybe more a case of negligence. Vlad & cronies have been concentrating on lining their endless pockets and protecting that racket from the victims (Russian people). It's not completely outside the bounds of reason that certain tactical elements of the Russian military were intentionally kept weak from becoming a political threat, although that doesn't quite reconcile with the intention of establishing the "Vlad the conqueror" legacy.

TP

That's fair. One of the things the quoted article mentioned was that the APCs the Russians were using were old stock so they didn't have modern radios. Something like radio retrofits into old stock vehicles is an excellent opportunity for graft outside of wartime since nobody's going to look in to see if they have the right radio. Pay for a few to get done (so you have a couple to show off on inspection) and split the rest of the money with the radio vendor.

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

Sorry, Captain! I cannot call in air strike. String between cans broke again!

 

[cautery]

Almost guaranteed the old radios are inop or were stolen and sold. The money for the comms upgrades was siphoned off by each level from the top down.

Corrupt Officer Corps. Virtually non-existent professional NCOs.... Recipe for a monumentally inefficient and ineffective fighting force.

 

[Peartree]

Perhaps the Russian armed forces haven't seen the need or perhaps they never truly recovered since the fall of the Soviet Union. They haven't had a war with a technologically advanced and organized opposition in that time. They have mostly been fighting against tribes, militias, and other foes who were even worse equipped.

Even so, armies communicated better than that in WW1. At least they had carrier pigeons.

 

[Funkworks]

Even so, armies communicated better than that in WW1. At least they had carrier pigeons.

And this is where I come in unexpectedly.

 

[shockie]

Brother-man! I live right next door to the runway at Barksdale AFB. If this goes nuclear, I won't have much time to contemplate my preparedness sans a MACH1 capable VTOL aircraft.

And I know where I, and all the folks I love, are going when we leave here. If it is time for this world to conclude, there is not a thing you, I, or any other being in the Universe can do to change it.

I live next to Ft.Knox...... It's a stones throw out my back door. I will be vaporized in an instant. So no worries.

 

[jbsommerfeldt]

I just read an article about Ukraine using hobby drones with rpgs attached. My previous post may not have been so crazy. Sad, but not crazy. Remindes me when the feds tried to shut us down. Claiming, among other things, terrorists could use motors and rockets as weapons.

 

[teepot]

I'm ready for WW3. Lots of freeze dried food. Water, gas, propane etc. And lots of guns and bullets. If Vegas or Nellis AFB got hit, we have a mountain range between us and them. 12,000' high.

 

[Bravo52]

It's mind-boggling that an army in the 21st century has no way for ground troops to talk to artillery or air assets and vice versa.

Don't be too surprised. If a unit is ill-equipped and untrained, the fog of war can play a significant role. Also, for more sophisticated militaries, it is part of battlefield doctrine to disrupt communications. I'll give you a good "modern" example. During recent events in Syria, there was one party that tried to disrupt activities in a local region. They were using equipment they were not well trained on and it impacted the entire region, not just the intended audience. Of the eleven or so factions operating in Syria at the time, all but one were severely disrupted...even the unit that was conducting the activity in question.

 

[ThirstyBarbarian]

I'm ready for WW3. Lots of freeze dried food. Water, gas, propane etc. And lots of guns and bullets. If Vegas or Nellis AFB got hit, we have a mountain range between us and them. 12,000' high.

Not to mention, you also have the brothels.

 

[Peartree]

I live next to Ft.Knox...... It's a stones throw out my back door. I will be vaporized in an instant. So no worries.

After they moved all the tanks to Georgia, is there anything left at Ft. Knox worth expending an ICBM?

On the other hand, if Russian ICBM's are still programmed with cold war coordinates, eveni could be in trouble since I live 15 miles from what once was the 60,000 acre Ravenna Arsenal, where much of the US ammunition was manufactured in WW2. It's long since deactivated (but sits empty because 60,000 acres is a LOT of remediation that no one wants to pay for) but at this point I wouldn't bet that the Russians have updated their target lists.