Can HPR survive with $100 J motors?

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Sure, HPR will survive with $100 J motors; until all the old white men that can afford them , slowly but surely die off. Say 10 to 20 years max?
LOL, so your saying only old white men can afford J motors? Let's not go into a tizzy over little non-issues, like a price increase. At least, not so much that one speaks rashly.

I may have 10 really good years left. How many really good years do you think you have left? Guys a little younger than me - maybe 20. After that the population of avid, association joining rocketeers tails off. I believe the associations have something in the 10-15 year range before change really sets in. It won't be a disaster.

Once the old generation retires and aren't available to provide services that may or may not have been taken for granted, the younger generations will take action. Ever notice how young people who fly rockets at your launches aren't particularly interested in your club? They want the access to flying fields and technology we have. That's OK. They are also so capable that they really don't need old farts for "access." We just make it convenient, for now. They're even figuring out that you don't need TRA to manufacture motors. Flying 1/2A mini-engines in competition will become like "quaint" stick-and-tissue free flight aircraft. Maybe what's going to die off along with the old generation is our notion of clubs and associations. Hobby rocketry will likely take a form that may be radically different than the way things are arranged right now. This is the prerogative of the younger generation.

And you all are worried about a price increase? You old codgers need to take a chill pill and maybe go fly a rocket.
 
Yeah, I know, but I can't alter the evil 4-letter word.
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Ok, definitely not an HPR guy and have only been to one club launch so this may be totally naïve.

Do any clubs buy reloadable hardware so that members can just purchase reloads and use the clubs hardware? Seems that if everyone at an launch has their own hardware that there is lots of extra hardware. I was thinking members could sign out hardware, club representative could oversee the member loading the reload, member preps / launches rocket, returns hardware, etc... (likely need some more process around that).

Clubs could actually sell the reloads as a way to fund themselves (and to keep refreshing hardware inventory). Getting access to a wider range of reloadable motors might be a nice value proposition to members. Might need to charge a subscription or membership fee. Not sure how many launches the typical reloadable motor gets but a shared / usage based model (instead of purchase) seems to make more sense than everyone having $ thousands in various hardware that gets used infrequently till the reloads are no longer available.

I have heard of clubs that have some loaner cases, but I haven’t actually seen that at any of my clubs. And I’ve never heard of a club that sells reloads to raise money for the club.

But I know plenty of rocketeers willing to loan out hardware on the condition it be returned undamaged and cleaned. I’ve loaned out cases on that basis myself. Often it’s the big cases that don’t get enough use are are expensive to buy. I have some big 54mm CTI hardware I’ve offered up a few times.
 
LOL, so your saying only old white men can afford J motors? Let's not go into a tizzy over little non-issues, like a price increase. At least, not so much that one speaks rashly.

I may have 10 really good years left. How many really good years do you think you have left? Guys a little younger than me - maybe 20. After that the population of avid, association joining rocketeers tails off. I believe the associations have something in the 10-15 year range before change really sets in. It won't be a disaster.

Once the old generation retires and aren't available to provide services that may or may not have been taken for granted, the younger generations will take action. Ever notice how young people who fly rockets at your launches aren't particularly interested in your club? They want the access to flying fields and technology we have. That's OK. They are also so capable that they really don't need old farts for "access." We just make it convenient, for now. They're even figuring out that you don't need TRA to manufacture motors. Flying 1/2A mini-engines in competition will become like "quaint" stick-and-tissue free flight aircraft. Maybe what's going to die off along with the old generation is our notion of clubs and associations. Hobby rocketry will likely take a form that may be radically different than the way things are arranged right now. This is the prerogative of the younger generation.

And you all are worried about a price increase? You old codgers need to take a chill pill and maybe go fly a rocket.

Old codger? I'm 59, and I can likely PT you into a stupor. :)

I've got at least 20 years left if Jesus tarries. Have to go 20 more. Promised the 4 grandchildren I acquired last year that I'd see them out of college. :)

I'll do rocketry as long as I can... hoping to put my sons and grands in the sport/hobby. :)
 
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LOL, so your saying only old white men can afford J motors? Let's not go into a tizzy over little non-issues, like a price increase. At least, not so much that one speaks rashly.

I may have 10 really good years left. How many really good years do you think you have left? Guys a little younger than me - maybe 20. After that the population of avid, association joining rocketeers tails off. I believe the associations have something in the 10-15 year range before change really sets in. It won't be a disaster.

Once the old generation retires and aren't available to provide services that may or may not have been taken for granted, the younger generations will take action. Ever notice how young people who fly rockets at your launches aren't particularly interested in your club? They want the access to flying fields and technology we have. That's OK. They are also so capable that they really don't need old farts for "access." We just make it convenient, for now. They're even figuring out that you don't need TRA to manufacture motors. Flying 1/2A mini-engines in competition will become like "quaint" stick-and-tissue free flight aircraft. Maybe what's going to die off along with the old generation is our notion of clubs and associations. Hobby rocketry will likely take a form that may be radically different than the way things are arranged right now. This is the prerogative of the younger generation.

And you all are worried about a price increase? You old codgers need to take a chill pill and maybe go fly a rocket.
With any organization, people age out and new people take their place. Aerotech keeps saying that their sales are better than they've been for a long time. NAR and TRA have pretty much record membership levels. TARC, Spaceport America Cup, and SLI bring new blood into the rocketry hobby. Some stay, some don't, but on average the hobby is growing. Yes, at some point, some fraction of the members will age out. It's pretty likely that new members will take their place if they want to keep flying. I don't see the price of J motors being the determining factor of whether people want to keep flying. Maybe it's just my privilege talking.
 
John's original title is still valid. Can we live with $100 J's? If the answer is 'yes' than this, like many other hobbies, becomes a rich(ish) person's hobby.
From the responses to this thread many here will live with $100+ J motors. That is not the question, the question will the hobby survive which implies a longer term horizon, not will it survive tomorrow.

In my observation there is high attrition in the hobby. You need new people coming to replace the people going out. If the market shrinks, the negative effects of economy of scale will start to bite. Its just something to ponder, I am not predicting anything, but the hobby in my opinion has to deal with some headwind it hasn't had to deal with lately.

Also the comparison of a $100 J motor to astronomy components is apples-carburetors. As Jeff alluded to, a $100 J motor is pure expense, you buy it, you burn it and that component of your wealth is gone forever in exchange for the entertainment you enjoyed for the expense.

Astronomy components are capital, you are just exchanging cash for another form of wealth (that's how I justify my other hobby of vintage Ferrari collecting). That equipment can be readily converted back to cash anytime your want. If you buy smartly and or pre-owned, that hobby may not cost you anything.
 
I think it can. What ever the market will bear.
$300 hotel room are not expensive. Been to Vegas lately?
I have a investment grade motors. They are worth more than I paid for them.
It is a volatile market.
 
I've been making small motors lately. Most under 62.5g propellant although ATF doesn't care if you use them yourself. Also they are all class 1 so you don't need a waiver. See https://www.rocketryforum.com/threads/18-mm-motors.158722/ D-small H, 18 mm through F. Developed new propellants, Kn values and it took a lot of trials to get them to work reliably.
 
From the responses to this thread many here will live with $100+ J motors. That is not the question, the question will the hobby survive which implies a longer term horizon, not will it survive tomorrow.

In my observation there is high attrition in the hobby. You need new people coming to replace the people going out. If the market shrinks, the negative effects of economy of scale will start to bite. Its just something to ponder, I am not predicting anything, but the hobby in my opinion has to deal with some headwind it hasn't had to deal with lately.

Also the comparison of a $100 J motor to astronomy components is apples-carburetors. As Jeff alluded to, a $100 J motor is pure expense, you buy it, you burn it and that component of your wealth is gone forever in exchange for the entertainment you enjoyed for the expense.

Astronomy components are capital, you are just exchanging cash for another form of wealth (that's how I justify my other hobby of vintage Ferrari collecting). That equipment can be readily converted back to cash anytime your want. If you buy smartly and or pre-owned, that hobby may not cost you anything.
You make a good point about Astronomy components! Regarding your initial thread, I am confused. Do you disagree that motor prices have been relatively stable for 30 years with respect to inflation? Also motors are just a fraction of the cost, rocket components, glue, electronics etc all factor in. Overall hobby prices are fairly stable with respect to inflation near as I can tell.
 
You make a good point about Astronomy components! Regarding your initial thread, I am confused. Do you disagree that motor prices have been relatively stable for 30 years with respect to inflation? Also motors are just a fraction of the cost, rocket components, glue, electronics etc all factor in. Overall hobby prices are fairly stable with respect to inflation near as I can tell.
Without rocket motors a rocket is just a model kit, no motors no fly. Motors are a recurring cost, a built rocket is mostly a one time expense.
 
You make a good point about Astronomy components! Regarding your initial thread, I am confused. Do you disagree that motor prices have been relatively stable for 30 years with respect to inflation? Also motors are just a fraction of the cost, rocket components, glue, electronics etc all factor in. Overall hobby prices are fairly stable with respect to inflation near as I can tell.
Yes over 30 years I agree. But people do not 'feel' inflation over 30 years. When motor prices increase 50% in a couple of years the reaction is is not "its about time". Sudden increases in prices can change behavior.
 
Without rocket motors a rocket is just a model kit, no motors no fly. Motors are a recurring cost, a built rocket is mostly a one time expense.
Somewhat true. Rockets themselves can (and should) be viewed as an expendable cost because they can be destroyed during launch or lost after launch.
 
You make a good point about Astronomy components! Regarding your initial thread, I am confused. Do you disagree that motor prices have been relatively stable for 30 years with respect to inflation? Also motors are just a fraction of the cost, rocket components, glue, electronics etc all factor in. Overall hobby prices are fairly stable with respect to inflation near as I can tell.


Excellent observation . . .

The true problem in inflation, not motor prices.

Dave F.
 
Yes over 30 years I agree. But people do not 'feel' inflation over 30 years. When motor prices increase 50% in a couple of years the reaction is is not "its about time". Sudden increases in prices can change behavior.
I agree on single discrete items, but with rocket you can smooth this out in two ways. Fly fewer rockets or fly smaller motors. If you were flying 4 flights a day, go to 3. The overall experience will not change dramatically.
 
I have heard of clubs that have some loaner cases, but I haven’t actually seen that at any of my clubs. And I’ve never heard of a club that sells reloads to raise money for the club.

But I know plenty of rocketeers willing to loan out hardware on the condition it be returned undamaged and cleaned. I’ve loaned out cases on that basis myself. Often it’s the big cases that don’t get enough use are are expensive to buy. I have some big 54mm CTI hardware I’ve offered up a few times.

Thanks for entertaining my crazy notion...

I had the same feeling of community from the group and figured that people lent things to each other. However, I would say that lending hardware (and having people informally approach others to borrow) is much different than knowing that there is a reliable set hardware and a reasonable cost reloads available at every launch. I think this could likely make it easier, less intimadating, cheaper for newcomers to get into HPR.

Also could be a fun communal event after a launch to clean the hardware together over some beers and hotdogs.

Maybe something for clubs to consider. Could buy the hardware from members and then make them available to everyone. Would need to assess the cost-feasibility in terms of wear and tear on hardware, liability (if there are any implications), vendor stakeholder perception, etc... This could also be done via a less formal partner cooperative if there were liability concerns.
 
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Thanks for entertaining my crazy notion...

I had the same feeling of community from the group and figured that people lent things to each other. However, I would say that lending hardware (and having people informally approach others to borrow) is much different than knowing that there is a reliable set hardware and a reasonable cost reloads available at every launch. I think this could likely make it easier, less intimadating, cheaper for newcomers to get into HPR.

Also could be a fun communal event after a launch to clean the hardware together over some beers and hotdogs.

Maybe something for clubs to consider. Could buy the hardware from members and then make them available to everyone. Would need to assess the cost-feasibility in terms of wear and tear on hardware, liability (if there are any implications), vendor stakeholder perception, etc... This could also be done via a less formal partner cooperative if there was liability concerns.
Some clubs do have "club casings" and the user has the same obligation as if using a friend's casing... clean it after and "if you lose or break it, you replace it". (Not sure if this was already mentioned.)
 
Yes over 30 years I agree. But people do not 'feel' inflation over 30 years. When motor prices increase 50% in a couple of years the reaction is is not "its about time". Sudden increases in prices can change behavior.
Gas prices swing 100% upward and 50% down every couple of years. People used to change the length of their trips during the high priced years but now they seem to accept it. Almost nobody stops driving entirely.
Thanks to the space shuttle there was a supply of AP. That no longer exists. People will adapt. A few people might stop flying but I suspect something would have caused them to stop anyway. High power rocketry has always been a high priced hobby. We literally burn through some of our disposable income and some people celebrate that fact.
There are more people in this hobby than ever and we will always find a way to support others in this hobby.
 
I have heard of clubs that have some loaner cases, but I haven’t actually seen that at any of my clubs. And I’ve never heard of a club that sells reloads to raise money for the club.

But I know plenty of rocketeers willing to loan out hardware on the condition it be returned undamaged and cleaned. I’ve loaned out cases on that basis myself. Often it’s the big cases that don’t get enough use are are expensive to buy. I have some big 54mm CTI hardware I’ve offered up a few times.
Besides the cases that the senior members of my club generously share, we also have some loaner cases that we have inherited from previous members.
 
Besides the cases that the senior members of my club generously share, we also have some loaner cases that we have inherited from previous members.

Most of the cases I’m happy to loan out are things I personally inherited from people leaving the hobby. I’ve loaned out some that I bought too, but some of the biggest and most expensive hardware I own are things I got for free.
 
I would hope that if manufacturers decided to make motors other than APCP we could talk to ATF and come up with some kind of burn rate criteria, similar to what Judge Walton discussed.
But I really don’t know.
I thought that was part of the lawsuit. Judge Walton required the BATFE to define the difference between a low explosive and a deflagrating substance. IIRC they said anything with a burn rate slower than the slowest fuse that is listed in the original law. Of course they then tried to measure the length of 3 38mm grains and divide by burn time and say that was APCP burn rate. Fortunately Judge Walton was smarter than that.

In any case, wouldn't he explosives definition they used in the lawsuit have to be applied to any other propellant being made since it is now legal precedence?
 
It's highly unlikely the ATFE would include other oxidizers in the past ruling without a new lawsuit. Plus, the ease of purchasing and alternate uses of common oxidizer (AN & KN) would be a roadblock.

From a manufacturer's point of view, the bulk savings with AN & KN would be quickly offset by processing costs, quality control, and shelf life due to the hygroscopic nature of these oxidizers.

From the consumers point of view, the 30% savings in motor prices would be offset by the 30% decrease in Isp (motor performance).
 
Most of the cases I’m happy to loan out are things I personally inherited from people leaving the hobby. I’ve loaned out some that I bought too, but some of the biggest and most expensive hardware I own are things I got for free.
Same here for the most part, there are one or two special cases in my collect that I will not loan, but only a couple.
 
It's highly unlikely the ATFE would include other oxidizers in the past ruling without a new lawsuit. Plus, the ease of purchasing and alternate uses of common oxidizer (AN & KN) would be a roadblock.

From a manufacturer's point of view, the bulk savings with AN & KN would be quickly offset by processing costs, quality control, and shelf life due to the hygroscopic nature of these oxidizers.

From the consumers point of view, the 30% savings in motor prices would be offset by the 30% decrease in Isp (motor performance).
I totally agree they won't include other oxidizers. But they did define a burn rate limit between low explosive (AP explosive mixture), which they regulate, and a deflagrating substance. It should make it much easier for any company to have their propellant unregulated if they can show it doesn't have a burn rate that the BATFE said in court, was required to be a low explosive.
 
Nothing is sadder than seeing a new rocketeer invest heavily and get discouraged the first time they have a serious and expensive failure.
A destroyed or lost borrowed case should cost them the same as if they owned the case. If I destroyed or lost someone's case, I would go directly to the vender and buy them a new one, or give them the cash to get one. Also, a serious and expensive failure is a great learning experience.
 
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