NATO relations with Ukraine

[StreuB1]

Looks like the Javelins 2-stage warhead is doing just fine against the angle iron "visors" Russia is adding to their tank turrets.

Love it

 

[boomtube-mk2]

Your comment on the birth rate is interesting. It might not affect him, but it could certainly affect his successors.

It is affecting him as this downward trend in population began even before the fall of the Berlin Wall back in '89 so Russia has had 30+ years of population loss already. The only thing propping up the old Soviet Union's population were all the locals they lost when it collapsed.

 

[tsmmiller]

It doesn't look good, just released from multiple news sources....
“Russia is laying the groundwork to have the option of fabricating a pretext for invasion, including through sabotage activities and information operations, by accusing Ukraine of preparing an imminent attack against Russian forces in eastern Ukraine,” a US official said.
U.S. intelligence officials have determined Russia has already dispatched operatives trained in urban warfare who could use explosives to carry out acts of sabotage against Russia’s own proxy forces — blaming the acts on Ukraine — if Russian President Vladimir Putin decides he wants to move forward with an invasion, the official added.
Also all the Ukranian government websites have been met with cyber attacks today.

 

[Zeus-cat]

I just read some of Tucker Carlson's opinions on this. He more or less says we are backing the wrong horse in this fight. Ukraine means nothing to us; we should be backing Russia to keep them from forging an alliance with China.

 

[Bill S]

We are all being played. Russia will roll into Ukraine, take the place, and the European leaders will do pretty much nothing. They have to have Russian natural gas to prevent their people from freezing to death because renewable energy won't generate enough to keep people from freezing in winter, and they dislike nuke plants (at least the French have some last I heard). They will posture and bluster, and in the end do little of consequence.

 

[boatgeek]

I just read some of Tucker Carlson's opinions on this. He more or less says we are backing the wrong horse in this fight. Ukraine means nothing to us; we should be backing Russia to keep them from forging an alliance with China.

Tucker Carlson never fails to amaze in his support for our enemies. If anyone else said that, Fox would be loudly proclaiming them a traitor. On what planet does he think that backing Russia over Ukraine would somehow dampen either China or Russia's territorial ambitions? If anything, it could only embolden both to embark on land grabs.

 

[MJW]

Neville Chamberlain didn't think Britain had the same interests as Czechoslovakia or Germany either. Let's just all be glad Tuck isn't our head of state.

 

[GlueckAuf]

From the analysis portion of the Memorandum you cited...

“The Budapest Memorandum was negotiated at political level, but it is not entirely clear whether the instrument is devoid entirely of legal provisions. It refers to assurances, but it does not impose a legal obligation of military assistance on its parties.[1][19] According to Stephen MacFarlane, a professor of international relations, "It gives signatories justification if they take action, but it does not force anyone to act in Ukraine.”

In other words, the Memorandum does NOT impose an obligation on the US to go to war over a border dispute between two former members of the Warsaw Pact.

 

[boatgeek]

From the analysis portion of the Memorandum you cited...

“The Budapest Memorandum was negotiated at political level, but it is not entirely clear whether the instrument is devoid entirely of legal provisions. It refers to assurances, but it does not impose a legal obligation of military assistance on its parties.[1][19] According to Stephen MacFarlane, a professor of international relations, "It gives signatories justification if they take action, but it does not force anyone to act in Ukraine.”

Ah, OK. So we only have a moral obligation to act instead of a legal obligation. That clears that up.

 

[heada]

Back on subject...

While we are not bound by treaty, I think it is in our own best interests to support a free, democratic Ukraine that is free from outside pressures (Russian or otherwise) They are clearly at risk of being invaded and are asking for help. Bound by treaty or no, when asked for help, we should help if we are able and it is right to do so.

I wonder if it would defuse or escalate the issue if a few thousand NATO troops were to suddenly have unscheduled exercises along the boarder.

 

[GlueckAuf]

Ah, OK. So we only have a moral obligation to act instead of a legal obligation. That clears that up.

Indeed. And personally, as a former NATO trainer of Ukrainian warfighters, post-USSR, I fervently hope that moral obligation provides the Ukrainians with all the Javelins they need to incinerate as many Russian T-72B3 tank crewmen that violate the border as possible. While my country, and my Nation’s sons and daughters, remain out of the fight until Mr Putin, like Hitler to his fatal mistake, decides to nibble on a bit of Poland.

 

[boatgeek]

Indeed. And personally, as a former NATO trainer of Ukrainian warfighters, post-USSR, I fervently hope that moral obligation provides the Ukrainians with all the Javelins they need to incinerate as many Russian T-72B3 tank crewmen that violate the border as possible. While my country, and my Nation’s sons and daughters, remain out of the fight until Mr Putin, like Hitler to his fatal mistake, decides to nibble on a bit of Poland.

I think we probably agree then. I am 100% behind sending lethal (eg Javelins) and non-lethal military aid to Ukraine. I am 100% behind sending some US troops and ships to exercises in the (NATO) Baltic states to remind Putin exactly how close NATO is to St. Petersburg if he decides to get frisky up there. I'm not excited about sending US troops to Ukraine--that bears a significantly higher risk of everything going badly.

 

[boomtube-mk2]

Ukraine faces the possibility of a three-front war. Troops and armor coming in from the east directly from Russia along with troops and armor dropping down from Belarus.

Then there's the threat posed by Russia's Black Sea fleet sitting offshore and shot gunning Ukrainian forces with long-range missile strikes.

Seriously, if Russia is determined to take this to the mat, I don't see how anything NATO can give the Ukrainians is going to make much of a difference in the long run, unless NATO forces directly engage Russian forces, say by sinking the Black Sea fleet, which would be an escalation of monumental proportions.

I do think that Putin is biting off more than he can chew and while I do believe Russia can over-run the Ukraine it is going to be ten times worse than when the Soviet Union went into Afghanistan.

And that's assuming that the Ukraine gave up all their nukes.

 

[MidOH]

Has anybody won a war in the modern era, that they started? Because Russia is clearly the aggressor here.

Maybe if the Ukraine didn't try purchasing jet fuel with my credit card number, every month, I'd actually care about their fate.

 

[MidOH]

.....and Skytanking, and Propeller........

 

[teepot]

I think if we get pulled into the Russian/Ukraine war China will move on Taiwan. So we would have a 2 front war with two other superpowers. I don't see a good outcome any way you slice it. My guess is there will be widespread cyber attacks first then the military option.

 

[Dotini]

I think Putin will attend the Chinese Olympics before attacking, which then could be between the 10th and 20th of February. Once the field hospitals and staff start rolling out of their bases, then you'll know it's on. IMHO, the only thing that can stop it is some effective form of appeasement.

 

[tsmmiller]

Putin has laid the trap and the world is stepping into it. He has placed the troops at the borders and now all he has to do is wait.
Neither Biden, Putin nor NATO can back down. At some point a shot will be fired.
If by any freakish chance all of NATO succumbed to Putin's demands and withdrew he would immediately push into those vacated areas.
We are a world at the brink of war.
I fear that what is going to happen is China and Russia escalating at the same time. Both heavy posturing.
Last night I listened to my 7 YO son pray that the world would remain at peace. Let China stay China and Taiwan remain free, and Russia leave Ukraine alone.
This from a 7yo in a fairly non religious, non church going family. I refuse to listen to the news at night and he still knows what is going on.

 

[Arnie]

We are all being played. Russia will roll into Ukraine, take the place, and the European leaders will do pretty much nothing. They have to have Russian natural gas to prevent their people from freezing to death because renewable energy won't generate enough to keep people from freezing in winter, and they dislike nuke plants (at least the French have some last I heard). They will posture and bluster, and in the end do little of consequence.

Well put!

 

[MJW]

I just read some of Tucker Carlson's opinions on this. He more or less says we are backing the wrong horse in this fight. Ukraine means nothing to us; we should be backing Russia to keep them from forging an alliance with China.

Here is a great write up on this, lots of cited references and direct quote. https://www.thedailybeast.com/tucke...-too-far-kremlin-tv-says?source=world&via=rss

Russian independent television channel Dozhd, also known as TV Rain, noted Carlson’s bizarre fealty to the Kremlin. On Tuesday, host Ekaterina Kotrikadze pointed out: “Tucker Carlson is one of the brightest personalities of the American conservative television channel Fox News. Sometimes it seems that he attends advanced training courses at the Russian Foreign Ministry.”

 

[H_Rocket]

My personal $0.02 is that Putin is waving a bright shiny object to distract our government from something else he is doing. He did it with our last administration, he is doing it with this one and will keep on doing it as long as we keep electing schmucks who fall for it.

 

[JamesS]

Found this interesting read on Putin's ideas of what Russia is and means.

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181

 

[teepot]

It wouldn't surprise me in the least if the Ukraine and Taiwan were both attacked on the same day at the same time. The rest of the world would be running in circles trying to decide what to do.

 

[shockie]

It wouldn't surprise me in the least if the Ukraine and Taiwan were both attacked on the same day at the same time. The rest of the world would be running in circles trying to decide what to do.

I've been saying this for the past year. Everybody laughed at me. I think Russia is colluding with China, instead of the USA this time. lol

 

[tsmmiller]

It seems Putin likes to plan his little invasions during Olympics. Feb 4 is the beginning, Feb 20 the ending.
I think it will be sooner rather than later.

 

[cwbullet]

I think if we get pulled into the Russian/Ukraine war China will move on Taiwan. So we would have a 2 front war with two other superpowers. I don't see a good outcome any way you slice it. My guess is there will be widespread cyber attacks first then the military option.

China does not have the means to invade Taiwan. They have planes and combat ships but do not have enough transport capabilities. Taiwan had 23 million people. China would have to land 60-80 million to win that war.

 

[John Kemker]

I seems Putin likes to plan his little invasions during Olympics. Feb 4 is the beginning, Feb 20 the ending.
I think it will be sooner rather than later.

Great. Just what I wanted for my birthday: Russia invading Ukraine. NOT!

 

[tsmmiller]

Great. Just what I wanted for my birthday: Russia invading Ukraine. NOT!

Let's certainly hope it is the NOT!

 

[Bravo52]

We are all being played. Russia will roll into Ukraine, take the place, and the European leaders will do pretty much nothing. They have to have Russian natural gas to prevent their people from freezing to death because renewable energy won't generate enough to keep people from freezing in winter, and they dislike nuke plants (at least the French have some last I heard). They will posture and bluster, and in the end do little of consequence.

One well place bomb on the Nord Stream pipeline and kicking the reds out of SWIFT will end things quickly. The west will flock to the aid of Germany (ie EU) but do nothing to support Russia. That is the leverage.

 

[Dotini]

Europe is in a real bind when it comes to energy.