Winston
Lorenzo von Matterhorn
- Joined
- Jan 31, 2009
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Either a wife with a broad (no pun intended) interest in technology, or a hubby who doesn't understand that this is an open thread and trying to be funny. Lucky, I don't care. I post stuff I find technically interesting.Another great post! Thanks Winston. My wife asked me this morning if I had any info Tesla's Gigafactory, and I said yes, then I showed her your post. You made me look good again. Thanks
The answer is yes to both of your questions. I really do enjoy your posts and I find it odd that I'm the only one that thanks you.
For folks who are skeptical about what Tesla is doing, the themes of "Tesla will need a lot more capital" or "that business will never be profitable" are popular.
However, the capital markets seem pretty willing to fund TSLA. And as of March 31 it appears customers (the most important indicator) do as well.
If you are a fan of manufacturing, you have to love TSLA's mindset. They are saying, "The design of the factory is more critical than the design of the product."
There is a deep appreciation of manufacturing at work here, and over the next couple of years the story of TSLA will be one of a re-birth and re-imagining of manufacturing, as much as the specific products themselves (cars, trucks, batteries, solar panels).
As a side note, there is a fair amount of Tesla-hating these days. Lots of reasons for this, but I think the biggest ones are:
1. People associate Tesla with climate change politics
2. Tesla cars put software front and center (literally), and even allow the software to drive (some)
So there are plenty of folks who cringe at Tesla cars, and say things like:
1. "I enjoy driving myself, why would I want the car to do it?"
2. "Why would I need a big screen in my car?"
3. "Gas is more convenient than recharging, and it's cheap."
4. "Only a tree-hugger would drive one of those."
People have grown used to thinking of electric cars as only popular with the climate change crowd, and not very popular in general. But when 373,000 people signed up in the first week of April for Tesla's Model 3, it should have been apparent to everyone that something new was happening.
My assessment of what happened (based on market research from reservation holders) is that Tesla has crossed over to the mainstream, in a big way. The primary motivation for reservation holders was, in a word, "technology." These are people who want a big map in their car with live traffic on it. Who want to play their song lists they have on their phone. Who want to cool down / heat up their car while they are still at the breakfast table in the morning. Who want cruise control that works really well in traffic.
There are other reasons, too. Secondarily they are people who like to feel more independent. They want to refuel their car themselves. Add $X00 to their power bill each year, stop paying $X,000 at the gas station. Stop paying for oil and brake changes (the only significant maintenance items on Teslas are the tires). Tesla literally has a motto that they think car companies should not make money on service (sorry if you work at a dealership).
Third, there are folks who really a dig a car that can go 0-60 in "super car" times. And that doesn't look half bad. I mean, early electric cars, including BMWs models, are not easy on the eyes, if you know what I mean. They look more like toasters than sports cars.
Hmm, let's see now, what gift did GM get from the American taxpayers?None of the above. The issue I have with Tesla is Musk's arrogance and the fanboys who hang on his every word. The guy has yet to make a profit on Tesla, even with a nice gift from the American taxpayers.
Your first post in this thread was completely unrelated to the topic
You are the only one who brought up Musk before I replied. Read John's posts and he does not mention him once. I'm not a fanboy of Musk - I am just turned off when a thread devolves into personal attacks for no reason.Hmm. My first post quoted the very first line of the article posted by the OP. Tesla Gigafactory includes the word Tesla, and Tesla is an automobile, right? John Beans expanded the thread to a broader sense of automobiles and what people like/dislike about Tesla. How am I off-topic, in the Watering Hole of all places?....
I got a lot less out of the Gigagactory livestream and trip reports (so far) than I thought I would.
Steve Jurvetson's photos of the Panasonic machinery were interesting. I shouldn't have been surprised, but they were more "batch" oriented than I had expected. I was thinking everything would be more continuous, but if I thought about it, it makes sense that there is pressure molding of stuff, and it would have to be done in a closed vessel.
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While people line up to buy a Model 3 to be available God knows when, the Chevy Bolt (the first 300 mile, $30K EV) will be available within 6 months from now. Yep, old Rustbelt GM beats Musk to the punch.
Autonomous vehicles, big screens, electric vehicles, and tree-hugger sentiment are hardly unique to Tesla and have been around longer than Musk. Silicon Valley "geniuses" alone can not make a car. Musk had to raid Detroit talent to get Tesla this far.
I personally think that the 200-mile range at a price middle-class families can afford will be a game-changer for electric cars, whether it comes from Chevy or Tesla. I own a Leaf, and have had several people tell me that they need just a little more than 70-100 miles range to be able to make their commutes work. The Leaf is perfect for me--I have a 25-mile round trip commute at 2 cents a mile in electricity cost.
It's been a long time since so many people got excited about a car. Certainly there's not *that* much excitement around the Bolt, even though it seems like it will be a pretty good car, and they will sell plenty of them.
but many (most?) dealers are in fact resistant to the idea of a product that requires any degree of explanation or evangelization.
James
As they say on Reddit: 'aged like milk'.Nope. None of the above. The issue I have with Tesla is Musk's arrogance and the fanboys who hang on his every word. The guy has yet to make a profit on Tesla, even with a nice gift from the American taxpayers. His market projections on the Model 3 are delusional. His suspensions are flawed. A guy died in one of the driver-less cars. Not everything Musk touches turns to gold.
While people line up to buy a Model 3 to be available God knows when, the Chevy Bolt (the first 300 mile, $30K EV) will be available within 6 months from now. Yep, old Rustbelt GM beats Musk to the punch.
Autonomous vehicles, big screens, electric vehicles, and tree-hugger sentiment are hardly unique to Tesla and have been around longer than Musk. Silicon Valley "geniuses" alone can not make a car. Musk had to raid Detroit talent to get Tesla this far.
I will agree with Musk on auto dealerships. The state franchising laws need to be blown up.
I guess I could have added in the market valuations of each company, but that would just be mean.
Tony
Honestly, market valuations mainly reflect the rather volatile sentiments of a highly irrational market, *especially* with regard to TSLA. Of all Tesla's incredibly impressive accomplishments, that's the one I'd be least inclined to trumpet, except perhaps to the shorts, who deserve all misery that can be heaped upon them.
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