World Population: How many is too many?

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I believe it was P.J. O’Rourke who summed up the population problem very succinctly.
“Just enough of us, way to many of them.”

There is a downside to population decline and we are seeing it in several countries Japan and Russia being the worst but China will follow shortly.

The aged quickly becomes the majority of your population.

For a nation to maintain a stable population it has to have a birth rate of 2.3 per couple. Many European countries along with Russia, Japan and perhaps even China, are well below that and their populations are increasing only because of immigration or are actually in decline. Meanwhile the nations these people are emigrating from are still the regions with a rapidly increasing population.

So what are the developed countries supposed to do about this?
Do we have the moral authority to do anything?
 
As long as it lasts another 40 years, I don't care.

You aren't the only one who feels that way. And that's why this society will probably be regarded as the most greedy, selfish and wasteful in all of history. (If there is anyone left to regard history...)
 
The Earth is thought to have a carrying capacity of between 4 and 10 billion people so we have either crossed the too many threshold or are approaching it. It's been said that at our current rate of consumption that we would need 1.5 earths.

The world and people were here long before You and I got here. The world and people will be here long after You and I are gone. 75,000 years ago the human race just about snuffed it. The Earth almost had it's say as to whether or not we would be a factor on this planet. Humans bounced back from the edge of extinction because of our wits and adaptability. I have no doubt that humans will continue to survive for a long time to come. How many survive and what that world will look like is anyones guess. It does seem that there will have to be a major adjustment somewhere along the way.

Of course an asteroid could be on it's way here right now...
 
The Earth is thought to have a carrying capacity of between 4 and 10 billion people so we have either crossed the too many threshold or are approaching it. It's been said that at our current rate of consumption that we would need 1.5 earths.

The world and people were here long before You and I got here. The world and people will be here long after You and I are gone. 75,000 years ago the human race just about snuffed it. The Earth almost had it's say as to whether or not we would be a factor on this planet. Humans bounced back from the edge of extinction because of our wits and adaptability. I have no doubt that humans will continue to survive for a long time to come. How many survive and what that world will look like is anyones guess. It does seem that there will have to be a major adjustment somewhere along the way.

Of course an asteroid could be on it's way here right now...

I don't worry so much about the survival of the planet, and it is true that humanity is not likely to go extinct. What I worry about is whether our civilization as we know it can survive severe resource shortages, famine, and war. I don't really want to struggle with starvation, and I don't wish it on future generations. If our technological civilization falls, it's not likely to get back up again, ever. Maybe humans were meant to live at a preindustrial level, and our current achievements are just an unsustainable blip, but I don't really like the idea very much.
 
It seems that greed, selfishness and warfare are ingrained in our DNA. As much as modern culture tries to reprogram our brains I'm not sure that you fight human nature. Perhaps this is the price we pay for original sin.
 
It seems that greed, selfishness and warfare are ingrained in our DNA. As much as modern culture tries to reprogram our brains I'm not sure that you fight human nature. Perhaps this is the price we pay for original sin.


[YOUTUBE]GUb17BUP5UI[/YOUTUBE]
 
It’s funny when you think about it but the only people that are concerned about overpopulation are the people whose numbers are actually stable or in decline.
 
It’s funny when you think about it but the only people that are concerned about overpopulation are the people whose numbers are actually stable or in decline.

I wouldn't say that's true.
 
There are several things about population that scare me. One, no one really knows what the carrying capacity of the planet is. Someone said it is between 4 and 10 billion. That's a pretty big range; what is the "real" number? If we go over the number does the planet self adjust and famine or other natural disasters bring the population back into the "correct" range? Or is it more like we reach a tipping point and once we go too far over the edge everything just collapses? Sort of a like a rocket that is marginally stable and flies OK for the first five launches, but the sixth launch the rocket tips a little too far and before you know it you have a rocket cartwheeling all over the place.

Decreasing populations in many countries are probably good for the planet, but not so good for the economies that we have developed. Things don't work as well if populations are stagnant or decreasing.
 
I wouldn't say that's true.

It is mostly the developed nations, Europe, The United States, Canada etc. that do most of the caterwauling about overpopulation yet these are the vary nations whose populations are basically stable or even in decline exempting immigration. Russia’s population is falling so fast they may soon reach a point they can’t maintain their nation.

Now look at the regions where the vast percentage 90% or more, of population increase is going to occur over the next few decades. The nations of the African Continent including the Middle East, South and Central America, India and much but not all, of Asia.
With the possible exception of India I don’t recall any of those regions pushing an agenda of population control much less reduction. And I don’t see any of them actually doing anything about it. China is a special case having had a 1 child program for two generations now and that is going to have some serious consequences for them in the near future. Actually it is already having those consequences but the Chinese government has been successful in keeping much of it under the radar so far.

The United States can yammer on all it wants about overpopulation yet there is little if anything we can do about it because it really isn’t happening here.

Are we going to enforce population control/reduction upon the peoples of Africa? India? S. America? Elsewhere?
 
It is mostly the developed nations, Europe, The United States, Canada etc. that do most of the caterwauling about overpopulation yet these are the vary nations whose populations are basically stable or even in decline exempting immigration. Russia’s population is falling so fast they may soon reach a point they can’t maintain their nation.

Now look at the regions where the vast percentage 90% or more, of population increase is going to occur over the next few decades. The nations of the African Continent including the Middle East, South and Central America, India and much but not all, of Asia.
With the possible exception of India I don’t recall any of those regions pushing an agenda of population control much less reduction. And I don’t see any of them actually doing anything about it. China is a special case having had a 1 child program for two generations now and that is going to have some serious consequences for them in the near future. Actually it is already having those consequences but the Chinese government has been successful in keeping much of it under the radar so far.

The United States can yammer on all it wants about overpopulation yet there is little if anything we can do about it because it really isn’t happening here.

Are we going to enforce population control/reduction upon the peoples of Africa? India? S. America? Elsewhere?

People in India are very concerned about the population. At least people from India that I have spoken with. It's a power and sanitation issue as well.
 
That's kind of a "Political" Topic, is it not? I heard that Politcal Topics were shunned here, and that's one of the things I love about this Site.
I'm not going to comment on this matter, other than to express my Concern that this is a Political Thread.
 
That's kind of a "Political" Topic, is it not? I heard that Politcal Topics were shunned here, and that's one of the things I love about this Site.
I'm not going to comment on this matter, other than to express my Concern that this is a Political Thread.

I wouldn't say it's political, it's a math problem. But it could stay civil if we do, mathematicians are notoriously excitable.
 
Almost any topic can be turned political. I agree that this one has considerable potential for it, but so far it has been civil and I hope it stays that way.
 
I'm in favor of getting rid of the warning labels and letting the problem take care of itself
As demented as that is, I cant help but chuckle and shake my head in agreement.
:p
 
Perfect population is me and three 10 year olds (recovery crew).

Mike
 
Interestingly the UN estimates for 2150 project a population between 3.2 billion and 25.8 billion with mathematical modeling supporting the LOWER figure. Will the population really decrease by that much? Doesn't nature dictate the instict to breed or will dwindling resources be the over riding factor? 26 billion definitely seems like way too many people for our small planet, could Earth actually sustain so many?

What good is a prediction with a range that broad? That would be a lot a weather forecaster stating the temperature high will be between 0 degrees and 100 degrees next week.
 
I have My towel, toothbrush, flip flops, and Bath Robe. Plus I have already stuck out my thumb. Just waiting for a ride off this mud ball. If there is anyone leaving this planet and going some place better than this how about a lift. dray
 
What good is a prediction with a range that broad? That would be a lot a weather forecaster stating the temperature high will be between 0 degrees and 100 degrees next week.

That's kind of the point, the future is unknown. The UN reports favor a near future where the poulation is half of what it is now. A utopian dream or solid science? On the other hand the higher number is included in their reports, an ominous warning? I think the likely scenario plays out somewhere in between. I can't see the population dropping so much in just a little more than a hundred years without some sort of catostophe befalling mankind. One thing is certain, the population continues to rise as I write this.

Forcasts and predictions are just that, a best guess.
 
That's kind of the point, the future is unknown. The UN reports favor a near future where the poulation is half of what it is now. A utopian dream or solid science? On the other hand the higher number is included in their reports, an ominous warning? I think the likely scenario plays out somewhere in between. I can't see the population dropping so much in just a little more than a hundred years without some sort of catostophe befalling mankind. One thing is certain, the population continues to rise as I write this.

Forcasts and predictions are just that, a best guess.

Human waste management is the biggest problem I can see, especially in the crowded environments of future megacities.
 
A lot of the problems associated with increasing populations can be mitigated if you have a large enough energy budget.

Toxic waste? Drop it into a plasma torch and that’s that. In fact you can get rid of pretty much anything, save nuclear/radioactive waste, if you had a few of the above. General Electric/Westinghouse even built and operated a prototype back in the early ‘90s.The problem is the enormous amount of energy required to operate a plasma torch.

Potable water? Desalination of sea water. Once again it boils (Sorry about that) down to energy.

Technology; assuming a virtually unlimited energy budget, can solve pretty much all the physical/material needs of an expanding population except perhaps one.

What keeps all these people occupied so the vast majority aren’t going around and getting themselves into trouble? Even the United States has cities, or at least portions thereof, that are becoming ungovernable and un-police able.

Add to the above is the fact that we are rapidly approaching the point where a tiny percentage of the working age population can supply all the goods and services the remaining population could want, need or desire. Or at least afford.

Now what do you do with the other 90%?
 
...Toxic waste? Drop it into a plasma torch and that’s that. In fact you can get rid of pretty much anything, save nuclear/radioactive waste, if you had a few of the above. General Electric/Westinghouse even built and operated a prototype back in the early ‘90s.The problem is the enormous amount of energy required to operate a plasma torch...

There is still some carbon released. A great deal of toxic waste has a heavy metal component as well. But I'll guess it looks and sounds cool.
 
I saw a report on robotics the other day, the bottom line was that robots will be taking over an even larger portion of the work that people do now. Breaking out of manufacturing and increasingly taking up roles in the service industries. Within 30 to 50 years the majority of the entry level/lower paying jobs could be performed by robots. Fast food joints where food is never touched by human hands. Grocery stores where products are recieved, stocked and checked out completely by robots. I was in my Walmart the other day and as usual they only had a couple of checkers working but the half dozen automatic checkouts were packed with customers. Were probably not too far away from stores going completely automated on their checkouts with one or two people working as tenders.

The question that needs to be answered is how will the masses earn money for goods and services when jobs are way more scarce then they are now. The future is exciting but it can also be scary with so much uncertainty.
 
I remember a discussion of population growth as a "healthy" thing. Was discussing immigration as a way of bringing in younger people into the population to help sustain the "young to old" ratio in a more favorable tilt (more young people to support the old people.) VERY short term thinking, as those new YOUNG people eventually will BECOME the OLD people, so you are creating a Ponzi scheme were you have to continue to swell the population to sustain the right "young to old" ratio. Whether the max this planet can support is 4 billion or 10 billion or 50 billion, the point is that it is NOT infinity and if the population continues to grow it will eventually hit that point UNLESS something (war, famine, disease, or voluntary or enforced reduction of procreation occurs.)

Bringing this back to Rocketry topics, I think there was a time people thought eventually via space travel we would "export" the excess population to other planets. Not sure it ever was a viable idea. At this point we have at least two major problems.

First, we have yet to find ANYWHERE we can confidently send anyone to permanently set up shop (oh yeah, maybe we can SURVIVE on Mars, but thrive?) Our survey of the nearby galactic neighborhood hasn't come up with any really strong candidates either. I still enjoyed Heinlein's "Farmer in the Sky", unfortunately not realistic.

Second, we don't have (and aren't likely TO have) the technology to transport large numbers of people to the nearest PLANET let alone the nearest star system that MIGHT have an earthlike planet (funny, seems like every star had an earthlike planet on Star Trek.)

Had an idea for a Suspense/Thriller book/movie. Group of scientists are closing in on a cure for cancer. But one by one the group members start to die of suspicious causes. Turns out the government is knocking them off. Government knows that a cure for cancer would break the Medicare/SSN bank. Can you imagine what would happen to the U.S. population of nursing home patients if we cured cancer.

Of course, there is always the "Logan's Run" solution.

None of this stuff is new, by the way.

Thomas Robert Malthus


From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


Born

14 February 1766
Surrey, England



Died

29 December 1834 (aged 68)
Bath, England

Malthusian growth model


The Reverend (Thomas) Robert Malthus FRS (13 February 1766 – 23 December 1834[1]) was a British cleric and scholar, influential in the fields of political economy and demography.[2] Malthus himself used only his middle name Robert.[3]

Malthus became widely known for his theories about change in population. His An Essay on the Principle of Population observed that sooner or later population will be checked by famine and disease. He wrote in opposition to the popular view in 18th-century Europe that saw society as improving and in principle as perfectible.[4] He thought that the dangers of population growth precluded progress towards a utopian society: "The power of population is indefinitely greater than the power in the earth to produce subsistence for man".[5] As a cleric, Malthus saw this situation as divinely imposed to teach virtuous behaviour.[6] Malthus wrote:


That the increase of population is necessarily limited by the means of subsistence,
That population does invariably increase when the means of subsistence increase, and,
That the superior power of population is repressed, and the actual population kept equal to the means of subsistence, by misery and vice.[7]
 
I saw a report on robotics the other day, the bottom line was that robots will be taking over an even larger portion of the work that people do now. Breaking out of manufacturing and increasingly taking up roles in the service industries. Within 30 to 50 years the majority of the entry level/lower paying jobs could be performed by robots. Fast food joints where food is never touched by human hands. Grocery stores where products are recieved, stocked and checked out completely by robots. I was in my Walmart the other day and as usual they only had a couple of checkers working but the half dozen automatic checkouts were packed with customers. Were probably not too far away from stores going completely automated on their checkouts with one or two people working as tenders.

The question that needs to be answered is how will the masses earn money for goods and services when jobs are way more scarce then they are now. The future is exciting but it can also be scary with so much uncertainty.


Actually the technology to replace much of the fast food human resource has existed for better than a decade. I read about it and saw examples of it before I ever left California.

To date the thing keeping the big fast food chains from implementing this change is start-up costs and the belief the customers won’t accept “Robot Food”.

What with the drive to increase minimum wage to $$$$$ levels along with a growing discontent amongst fast food customers with regards to the poor service they get; robot food might be closer to happening than you think.



As for what to do with all the people now part of the unnecessary workforce? Sci-Fi writers have been crystal balling that question since at least the early ‘70s.
 
I don't know, I'm probably gonna be wondering if that robot washed it's hands after a lubricant change.
 
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