Putin's six "superweapons"

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Winston

Lorenzo von Matterhorn
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Cold War v2.0 heats up, at least in bragging about yet to be deployed weapons. Keep in mind that Putie is running for reelection.

The latest report from Jim Oberg on visual observations of Russian missile launches. Relevant to Putin's recent boasts of nuclear-armed missiles that "cannot be defended against".

https://satobs.org/seesat_ref/misc/171226_kyss.pdf

Here's The Six Super Weapons Putin Unveiled During Fiery Address
The Russian president said "you listen to us now" as he boasted about nuclear-powered cruise missile, hypersonic weapons, nuclear torpedoes, and more - 1 Mar 2018

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zo...r-weapons-putin-unveiled-during-fiery-address

1. A nuclear-powered cruise missile with unlimited range (see Project Pluto's SLAM although that was a large terrain following cruise missile with multiple nukes to hit multiple targets - this could be a much smaller cruise missile designed to hit a single target)
2. Nuclear-armed hypersonic boost glide vehicles
3. A more capable heavy ICBM
4. A nuclear-armed underwater drone (it appears that the ultra-long-range high yield nuclear torpedo to attack carrier groups and coastal targets I've previosuly posted about here ISN'T a myth)
5. Hypersonic cruise missiles
6. Lasers

U.S. Has Been Secretly Watching Russia's Nuclear-Powered Cruise Missiles Crash and Burn
Successful or not, if Russia is test flying these weapons, this means it has been repeatedly crashing nuclear reactors into the ground or the ocean - 2 Mar 2018

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zo...uclear-powered-cruise-missiles-crash-and-burn

Excerpts:

...shortly after Putin’s address, CNN, in a story citing an anonymous U.S. government official, cast doubt on the possibility that this weapon was anywhere near operational. That individual added that the “United States had observed a small number of Russian tests of its nuclear-powered cruise missile and seen them all crash.” Fox News said its own sources indicated the same thing, that the weapon was in the research and development phase and that at least one had crashed during testing the arctic.

In a routine press conference on March 1, 2018, top Pentagon spokesperson Dana White declined to comment on the record about whether or not any of the weapon systems Putin announced were operational. She did, however, insist that none of them were new.

“These – these weapons that – that are discussed have been in development a very long time,” she said. “Our [new] Nuclear Posture Review takes all of this into account.”

With all this in mind, it remains unclear why the U.S. government has held back in exposing this project, but they may have been waiting for a more opportune moment. Unlike other systems, its not as clear cut whether the nuclear-powered cruise missile violates existing U.S.-Russia arms control agreements, such as the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, or INF.

That agreement bans Russia and the United States from building production land-based cruise missiles that have ranges between 310 and 3,100 miles. Its not obvious how the treaty would necessarily apply to a missile with unlimited range. At the same time, the INF does not explicitly prohibit research and development of land-based cruise missiles that would otherwise violate its terms, a loophole the United States itself has announced its intention to exploit.

The U.S. government could be trying to gather enough data to more conclusively demonstrate that the Kremlin released dangerous amounts of radiation with these experiments, too. Russia may not have actually test flown the prototype missile with a nuclear reactor on board, using a surrogate conventional engine arrangement instead, though this is unlikely. This would be the only reasonable way for the Russians to launch the weapon without any possibility of releasing of radioactive material, but it would also largely defeat the purpose of such tests.

But now that the existence of the program is out in the open, we may soon see more Russian boasts about its capability and American criticisms regarding its safety.


Putin's Air-Launched Hypersonic Weapon Appears To Be A Modified Iskander Ballistic Missile
Russia seems to have adapted their Iskander short-range ballistic missile for launch from the belly
2 Mar 2018

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zo...s-to-be-a-modified-iskander-ballistic-missile

One of the weapons touted in Putin's speech was an air-launched hypersonic anti-ship missile launched from the belly of a massive MiG-31 Foxhound. Upon closer examination, one of our commenters "Idunknown" noted that it looked exactly like an Iskander ballistic missile. We took a closer look and after doing a proportional/dimensional analysis of the missile in relation to the Foxhound we came to the same conclusion. In fact, the missile doesn't even look that highly modified, although it's exhaust fairing, which drops off during launch, throws off the Iskander's signature profile a bit at first glance.

The Iskander and its newest variant, the Iskander-M, are not air breathing missiles. They use solid rocket fueled motors to propel them on their ballistic arcs. Yet Russia claims its new hypersonic missile has a flight profile like that of a cruise missile. All this begs the question is this missile actually an air-launched ballistic missile system?

So for the critics who rightfully question the economic and technological feasibility of Putin's proposed super weapon arsenal, it's important not to bluntly classify all of these concepts as farcical or unrealistic. Clearly each of the systems Putin touted in his address are in different phases of their developmental timelines, and the full capabilities stated for each weapon may not be entirely accurate or could even be downright misleading, but some of these weapons are actually quite feasible, at least to a certain degree.

With this in mind, and taking into account the recent history of many prominent analysts'—not to mention the U.S. intelligence apparatus as a whole—atrocious handicapping of China's and North Korea's weapons development abilities, we shouldn't underestimate Russia or its super weapons ambitions.


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Putie's boasting is probably due to the very one-sided results of a US military versus Russian merc battle at Deir Ezzor in Syria described below, the headline/photo found below the video, and the US providing SAM/ABM systems to Eastern European countries bordering Russia:

The contracted mercenaries were likely from a Russian company Wagner, similar to the U.S. company Blackwater. Because they are not officially Russian soldiers there’s a great deal of built in plausible deniability. As Bloomberg also noted: ““This is a big scandal and a reason for an acute international crisis,” said Vladimir Frolov, a former Russian diplomat and lawmaker who’s now an independent political analyst. “But Russia will pretend nothing happened.””

The bottom line is Bashir Assad, Russia and Iran are working together in Syria to keep Assad in power. A military force within of that nexus, mostly paid Russians, attacked a U.S. protected compound with tanks, artillery, mortars and rockets.

The U.S. responded with overwhelming air power (drones, B-52 bombers, F-15 fighter jets, Apache helicopters and AC-130 gun ships), raining down precision-guided munitions upon the enemy assault battalion (300 – 500), while disabling their communications capability, for approximately three hours. When the dust settled around 200 Russians were dead and hundreds wounded.

That was a jaw-droppingly sneaky and aggressive action by the technically ‘unofficial’ Russians; and an even more stunning response by the official U.S. military [Trump's ROE].

The aggressive pro-Assad group (“unofficially Russian military”) was officially stomped into the sand. Therein we discover the reason for the entire episode to be kept on the down-low by the Russian government.

The Russian Government cannot be public or protest the response because technically the Russian government must pretend they had nothing to do with it. Simultaneously, the U.S. government cannot be public or protest the Russian attack because technically they too must pretend the Russian government had nothing ‘officially’ to do with it.

However, to the intellectually honest international audience: the Russians just attacked the Americans, and the Americans opened a can of whoop-ass on the Russians in response.


[video=youtube;XaeDMOWkCwU]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XaeDMOWkCwU[/video]

It Looks Like Javelin Anti-Tank Missiles Are Headed To Battlefield Ukraine
The days of the U.S. not providing "offensive" weaponry to Ukraine for their fight against Russian-backed separatists appear to be over

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zo...nk-missiles-are-headed-to-battlefield-ukraine

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Google the search term “Skolkovo”, specifically with respect to US intelligence warning about industrial theft.

TRF terms of service suggest no further discussion of the search results so simply read and swear vigorously.

( Words of power!!!! )
 
Well lets not worry too much about any of this, There's no real game changers here. As far as the maneuvering re-entry vehicles go, doesn't make a difference! We don't have enough interceptors to take out the plane jane warheads to begin with. Our posture is to take the hit and then retaliate. The hyper-sonic cruise missile is worrisome but a long-long-long way from operational. By the time they field it--if they field it--shipboard lasers will likely take care of that problem. The launch platform is antiquated at best. A heavy ICBM with more warheads does not equate to a better kill---just overkill! The torpedo/drone ( reminds me of an episode of Voyage to the Bottom of the Sea) take a lot less money to defend against than to build -field-deploy-maintain--This coming from a country that essentially has no blue water navy! The nuclear powered cruise missile is interesting but an old idea. Granted the technology has evolved. Since they have "unlimited" range. they would likely be based in the interior of the country. So it's likely we would see them launch. Ultimately --after they fly over their territory--and don't crash-- they have to either fly over open ocean or the poles or a desert--either way they make a nice target for an aircraft with look down shoot down ability. In the end these are simply carrots on a stick to make us spend money on defenses that are not sustainable and frankly make no deference. You can only kill a city once last time I looked. So they are developing and fielding weapons of redundancy that won't be used unless they launched first! Might want to think about that! The end result of that is their cities get hit by retaliation--maybe only once--and by a smaller yield weapon--but the result is the same! Of course this is coming from a country with the GDP of Kentucky-just kidding but it's pretty close.
 
1. Nuclear powered cruise missile - meh, there's a reason Pluto was abandoned. Not really sure what you gain from this system when you already have a very large ICBM fleet. Plus it's impossible to test without blasting radiation all over yourself.
2. Hypersonic gliders - meh, everybody is working on those. There are certainly some advantages to maneuverable re-entry vehicles, but they of course come at a cost. You have to bleed momentum to maneuver, reducing range.
3. Heavy ICBM - yawn, this is just a direct replacement for the R36, which was built in Ukraine. Given the current political situation, they just want a Made In Russia version. Super-heavy ICBMs let you do FOBs and South Pole trajectories, but again, this was an existing capability. Plus there's a downside of putting all your warheads on a few big fixed-base ICBMs: vulnerability to counterforce strikes
4. Underwater drone - it's hard to make something much smaller than an SSN that is nuclear powered and undetectable. A small drone is going to be either short range, or easy to detect and intercept. Nuclear mines and torpedoes have been around a long time. And anyway, what's the point when both sides have boomers full of SSBNs?
5. Looks like it is just an air-launched Iskander. A very capable short range ballistic missile, but yet another of these that's just an incremental improvement over a system that's already well known and in service
6. Lasers - pretty sure we are ahead of Russia in laser tech

Really just feels like bluster, probably more for the internal Russian audience than anything else.
 
1. Nuclear powered cruise missile - meh, there's a reason Pluto was abandoned. Not really sure what you gain from this system when you already have a very large ICBM fleet. Plus it's impossible to test without blasting radiation all over yourself.

SLAM was huge because it carried multiple warheads intended for multiple targets and, as a result, was massively radiologically dirty. A MUCH smaller single warhead cruise missile wouldn't be nearly as bad in that respect. ICBM progress was the primary reason for the cancellation of all intercontinental cruise missiles. Those cruise missiles had no advantages over ICBMs because like ICBMs and unlike manned bombers they could not be recalled, so they had no useful niche in the triad. BTW, HEU would be used in a MUCH smaller cruise missiles nuclear ramjet. Only space based IR detecting satellites might be able to detect the cruise missile in terrain following mode. Our SBIRS might be able to do that, but it's capabilities are classified. Failing that, look-down radar coverage over the entire US would be necessary.

2. Hypersonic gliders - meh, everybody is working on those. There are certainly some advantages to maneuverable re-entry vehicles, but they of course come at a cost. You have to bleed momentum to maneuver, reducing range.

Agreed, everyone is working on them.

3. Heavy ICBM - yawn, this is just a direct replacement for the R36, which was built in Ukraine. Given the current political situation, they just want a Made In Russia version. Super-heavy ICBMs let you do FOBs and South Pole trajectories, but again, this was an existing capability. Plus there's a downside of putting all your warheads on a few big fixed-base ICBMs: vulnerability to counterforce strikes

FOB and all aspect attack capabilities are very significant, FOB more so since it reduces attack detection accuracy. Also, there are other articles to be found about a new Russian maneuverable reentry vehicle. None of this other than the already existing FOB capability is directly destabilizing for the US since the US for VERY good reasons has no well developed plans, as far as I know, for BMD defense against an advanced adversary. I suspect a lot of this is Russian posturing against NATO encroachment and the US SAM/ABM systems being placed in former Eastern Bloc countries.

4. Underwater drone - it's hard to make something much smaller than an SSN that is nuclear powered and undetectable. A small drone is going to be either short range, or easy to detect and intercept. Nuclear mines and torpedoes have been around a long time. And anyway, what's the point when both sides have boomers full of SSBNs?

Much smaller means less detectable. On the reactor, once again, it would be a vastly smaller HEU one. Just as with the FOB and maneuverable RV capabilities mentioned above, this is meant to counter ANY BMD that could ever be created to protect the carrier groups and major US coastal assets which the weapon is intended for. I think the Russians are trying to discourage any US BMD efforts in the future that might make BMD useful against a sophisticated adversary by at least claiming to be developing such systems which can make the development of systems to counter them even more difficult than it already is. Just as the US "Star Wars" effort helped to bankrupt them, the Russians could probably never afford to match an effective US system (actually, in reality, neither can we considering how much money the fedgov BORROWS every year), so they are trying to deter us from even trying to develop one.

Anyway, for US carrier groups at least, these were already useful, at least back in 2006 for the Chinese variety of diesel-electric sub:

When a Chinese Submarine Appeared In The Middle Of A Carrier Battle Group

https://www.warhistoryonline.com/hi...-in-the-middle-of-a-carrier-battle-group.html

Silent Killer: Russian Varshavyanka Project 636.3 Submarine


https://www.strategic-culture.org/n...ian-varshavyanka-project-636-3-submarine.html

5. Looks like it is just an air-launched Iskander. A very capable short range ballistic missile, but yet another of these that's just an incremental improvement over a system that's already well known and in service.

That's what I posted.

6. Lasers - pretty sure we are ahead of Russia in laser tech

Directed energy and swarms of miniature kinetic kill vehicles carried on a single ABM are the main foreseeable routes to effective defence against a sophisticated adversary. Like I said above, I suspect they want to preempt any US travel down that path by trying to show that "resistance is futile".

Really just feels like bluster, probably more for the internal Russian audience than anything else.

That comment and others above lend me to believe that you don't read what I wrote in the original posts.
 
I think the real reason not to be concerned about the newest weapons is the same reason that the Cold War wasn't a hot war. There is no plausible scenario where Russia could use nukes against the US and not get nuked back to the Stone Age themselves. Sure, they could destroy NY harbor and a dozen other cities with the drones, but SLBMs from Tridents and ICBMs from North Dakota would be inbound to Moscow and St. Petersburg in short order. These new weapons might be able to take out some of those sites, but the triad is distributed enough that the Russians couldn't be sure of not getting a response. That doesn't even count responses from Allies like Britain and France.

I would start to worry if the Russians can reliably track our Tridents. But even then, what's next if the Russians go all Red Storm Rising on NATO and manages to pre-emptively clear out the entire NATO nuclear force? Is that world really much better for the Russians than the current one? They would immediately become Target #1 for the Chinese who would be pissed that they just lost their biggest trade partner. India also has a lot more room to grow than Russia.

The bottom line is that the Russians are smart and not crazy. Nuking someone else in this world order is crazy.
 
I think the real reason not to be concerned about the newest weapons is the same reason that the Cold War wasn't a hot war. There is no plausible scenario where Russia could use nukes against the US and not get nuked back to the Stone Age themselves. Sure, they could destroy NY harbor and a dozen other cities with the drones, but SLBMs from Tridents and ICBMs from North Dakota would be inbound to Moscow and St. Petersburg in short order. These new weapons might be able to take out some of those sites, but the triad is distributed enough that the Russians couldn't be sure of not getting a response. That doesn't even count responses from Allies like Britain and France.

I would start to worry if the Russians can reliably track our Tridents. But even then, what's next if the Russians go all Red Storm Rising on NATO and manages to pre-emptively clear out the entire NATO nuclear force? Is that world really much better for the Russians than the current one? They would immediately become Target #1 for the Chinese who would be pissed that they just lost their biggest trade partner. India also has a lot more room to grow than Russia.

The bottom line is that the Russians are smart and not crazy. Nuking someone else in this world order is crazy.
Agree 100%. I make these posts simply to inform and because I find the related topics fascinating. MAD will work as it always has with the most important topic by far being ways to prevent accidental nuclear war, leading me to suggest one of the best films ever, Fail Safe (original).
 
Just thinking.. what about bring on their own slow death?

Suppose, Moscow orders a barrage, a 'red storm rising' on Europe, and manages to pull it off.. (James Bond or Mac Bolan failed on their mission..) and most of western Europe is now engulfed in a nuclear firestorm, a radioactive wasteland. Wouldn't the fall out of such an event eventually reach their 'commie red' shores? We saw what happened with Chernobyl, and I assume we learnt a bit with other nuclear tests..
 
Just thinking.. what about bring on their own slow death?

Suppose, Moscow orders a barrage, a 'red storm rising' on Europe, and manages to pull it off.. (James Bond or Mac Bolan failed on their mission..) and most of western Europe is now engulfed in a nuclear firestorm, a radioactive wasteland. Wouldn't the fall out of such an event eventually reach their 'commie red' shores? We saw what happened with Chernobyl, and I assume we learnt a bit with other nuclear tests..
That's just one of the reasons why MAD works so well. No country or its leaders want to commit suicide.
 
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