I am Worried About Estes

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Onebadhawk
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RickGr4 said:
...
I started this thread to vent some concerns I have based on clear and obvious evidence ...
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Fair enough, and you got some very good feedback IMO. I think what's clear and obvious to you is not so clear and obvious to others. I do agree with one thing, the next few months could be very interesting. I'm still hoping for the best for all the employees at Estes. And I still wont worry about it.

RickGr4 said:
...
I am extremely disappointed that some people decided to take my concerns to a personal (and childish) level. I was hoping for better from this group.
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The TRFers never disappoint ! :wink:
 
GuyNoir said:
When Estes was spun out of the the Damon conglomerate, I had a chance to see some high level financial statements. When I took the opportunity to the head of the venture capital group at the bank I worked for, he asked "Are these margins real?". I replied, yes. "Somebody's going to pay a lot of money for this company."

Undoubtedly things have changed since the 1990's but I'll wager an adult beverage of your choosing that the underlying business and financial model for Estes is fundamentally the same. Given that the business is profitable, someone will buy the company and keep it in business, and the bankruptcy court will make sure of that.

Economics is economics and unless someone provides me with compelling evidence that the business is running at a loss, I don't intend to spend a second of time worrying about whether there will be black powder engines for my rockets.
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^^This. When you consider what is in the average Estes kit, or the cost of the bulk materials for bp motors, the business will always be viable if they’re smart and if the hobby as a whole is thriving. I cringe every time I open a $20 bag containing $2 worth of cardboard and balsa... But I keep buying them - even though I could be less lazy and just scratch build the same for a fraction of the cost. Same goes for their motors.

There’s plenty of money to be made. Estes is likely one Hobbicos most valuable assets right now.



Sent from my iPhone using Rocketry Forum
 
I had a bunch of errands to run this morning so I decided to include some "rocketry recon" while I was out and about. I made three stops:

1. Hub Hobby in Richfield, MN. A very large and local hobby store with a big section devoted to Estes. There was not a single small E, large E or F motor to be found. A few items on sale but no good deals. Orange Crush "marked down" to $19.99 is not a good deal. Very disappointing.

2. Hobby Lobby in Eagan, MN. Terrible selection. Nothing on sale. Only a few small E engines, E16-0 and F15-8 in stock. As usual, very disappointing.

3. Sky Hobby in Eagan, MN. Owner Jeremy is a good dude. They never have anything on sale but I don't expect them to. They had some E and F engines on hand but no E16-6, F15-4 or F15-6. I asked him to check availability. Things appear to be improving. Big E and F motors no longer show as back ordered. They now have late February and March ETAs. That is good news. Jeremy also said that most of the Hobbico brands are shipping product better since the bankruptcy filing. I take that as positive news as well.

So maybe, just maybe there is some light at the end of the tunnel...
 
jnobels said:
^^This. When you consider what is in the average Estes kit, or the cost of the bulk materials for bp motors, the business will always be viable if they’re smart and if the hobby as a whole is thriving. I cringe every time I open a $20 bag containing $2 worth of cardboard and balsa... But I keep buying them - even though I could be less lazy and just scratch build the same for a fraction of the cost. Same goes for their motors.

There’s plenty of money to be made. Estes is likely one Hobbicos most valuable assets right now.



Sent from my iPhone using Rocketry Forum
Click to expand...


All great points but I have a feeling that the business may in fact be running at a loss. They certainly don't appear to be spending any money to grow it...
 
RickGr4 said:
I had a bunch of errands to run this morning so I decided to include some "rocketry recon" while I was out and about. I made three stops:

1. Hub Hobby in Richfield, MN. A very large and local hobby store with a big section devoted to Estes. There was not a single small E, large E or F motor to be found. A few items on sale but no good deals. Orange Crush "marked down" to $19.99 is not a good deal. Very disappointing.

2. Hobby Lobby in Eagan, MN. Terrible selection. Nothing on sale. Only a few small E engines, E16-0 and F15-8 in stock. As usual, very disappointing.

3. Sky Hobby in Eagan, MN. Owner Jeremy is a good dude. They never have anything on sale but I don't expect them to. They had some E and F engines on hand but no E16-6, F15-4 or F15-6. I asked him to check availability. Things appear to be improving. Big E and F motors no longer show as back ordered. They now have late February and March ETAs. That is good news. Jeremy also said that most of the Hobbico brands are shipping product better since the bankruptcy filing. I take that as positive news as well.

So maybe, just maybe there is some light at the end of the tunnel...
Click to expand...

What you are seeing in #1 and #2 is just the state of the hobby. Face it, model rockets are not very cool or popular for a LHS to carry much stock. They are selling RC and drones and fantasy stuff I don't understand. Sounds like you live in sprawling suburbia, like me. If you fly big E and F motors, you need a decent-sized field to do so. That's not easy to find anymore, with jumpy neighbors and jittery city officials worried about rules and lawsuits. I was kicked out of two parks last year with "you can't do rockets here", while model airplane guys merrily continued flying right next to me.

If you are buying $2500 worth of Estes stuff per year, you should be shopping at AC Supply. Mom and Pop charge full retail for rocket stuff.
 
Buckeye said:
What you are seeing in #1 and #2 is just the state of the hobby. Face it, model rockets are not very cool or popular for a LHS to carry much stock. They are selling RC and drones and fantasy stuff I don't understand. Sounds like you live in sprawling suburbia, like me. If you fly big E and F motors, you need a decent-sized field to do so. That's not easy to find anymore, with jumpy neighbors and jittery city officials worried about rules and lawsuits. I was kicked out of two parks last year with "you can't do rockets here", while model airplane guys merrily continued flying right next to me.

If you are buying $2500 worth of Estes stuff per year, you should be shopping at AC Supply. Mom and Pop charge full retail for rocket stuff.
Click to expand...

I have been through much of this. I fly on a small field which is fairly close to MSP airport. City park board tried to kick us out of the park but they couldn't legally do it because the park is a few hundred feet outside of the MSP airport five mile "no fly" zone. Our park is within the five mile no fly zone for the smaller St. Paul airport but they gave us permission to fly because our park in not close to their flight paths.

I fly E and F engines only on zero wind days...

Trust me, AC Supply already gets a great deal of my money and they are about to get more.... Low prices and great service.
 
Just an observation.....in post #24 RickGr4 states "I spent $2,500 with AC Supply. 90% of that was A through D motors." That's $2250 worth of motors. If only purchasing C6 and D12 motors, that is approximately 315 packs of motors, or approximately just shy of 800 motors. That's a lot of motors for one person, for one year????

As for rocket kits, except for about a dozen or so kits that magically last forever (Alpha, Big Bertha, etc.), most kits have a lifespan of 2-5 years. It has been that way since the 70s. Some kits only lasted a year, for some the run was so short, they never made it into the catalog. The SPEV is an example.

Also, as for Estes specials on their website, there is a great response to that issue that shows up on the Model Rocket Building Website from an anonymous commenter: "There was a time when they didn't have any clearance specials on their website. Clearance specials like these don't last forever. Maybe they sold out of them? I predict it has nothing to do with the financial issues of the parent company, and more to do with it's time to end some of the specials. Most of those specials have been going on for the good part of a year, or over a year. You had plenty of time to buy, now it's over!"
 
turbofireball said:
Just an observation.....in post #24 RickGr4 states "I spent $2,500 with AC Supply. 90% of that was A through D motors." That's $2250 worth of motors. If only purchasing C6 and D12 motors, that is approximately 315 packs of motors, or approximately just shy of 800 motors. That's a lot of motors for one person, for one year????

As for rocket kits, except for about a dozen or so kits that magically last forever (Alpha, Big Bertha, etc.), most kits have a lifespan of 2-5 years. It has been that way since the 70s. Some kits only lasted a year, for some the run was so short, they never made it into the catalog. The SPEV is an example.

Also, as for Estes specials on their website, there is a great response to that issue that shows up on the Model Rocket Building Website from an anonymous commenter: "There was a time when they didn't have any clearance specials on their website. Clearance specials like these don't last forever. Maybe they sold out of them? I predict it has nothing to do with the financial issues of the parent company, and more to do with it's time to end some of the specials. Most of those specials have been going on for the good part of a year, or over a year. You had plenty of time to buy, now it's over!"
Click to expand...


I am an early riser. I get up around 430 to 530 every morning. During the summers of 2016 and 2017 I was working a job that was primarily afternoons and evenings. Having the mornings to myself, it was not uncommon for me to launch 10 to 12 flights, four to five days per week. Minnesota is beautiful during the summer and it is great to be outside as much as possible. I have lost count of how many rockets I have launched nor do I care.

My current job is 730am to 4pm so I think my rocket launching pace is going to slow down. Weekends only. But that does not change the fact that I am about to place a large order with AC Supply for motors.
 
RickGr4 said:
All great points but I have a feeling that the business may in fact be running at a loss. They certainly don't appear to be spending any money to grow it...
Click to expand...

There's a strong likelihood that for many years the profit generated by the Estes cost center is/was being peeled off by Hobbico in an attempt to stem the losses in the rest of the organization. Or, perhaps, to repay the private equity investors who set up and funded the "employee owned" corporate charade they seem to have been running.

James
 
I'm not too alarmed by the lack of specials currently running. Until a few years ago, it was normal for specials to only appear a few times of year around major holidays, like a summer Fourth of July sale and the typical Thanksgiving/Christmas sale. I was more concerned the past 2-3 years when the fire sale seemed to be never ending. It trains the customer to resist buying and just wait for that kit you want to show up 80% off.

I hadn't noticed the C11-3 disappearing, but sure enough it isn't listed on the Estes site anymore. Why did that happen? I believe those motors have had a poor history of reliability, so has Estes stopped making them all together? If so, I may need to stock up while vendors still have them available.
 
eljefe said:
I'm not too alarmed by the lack of specials currently running. Until a few years ago, it was normal for specials to only appear a few times of year around major holidays, like a summer Fourth of July sale and the typical Thanksgiving/Christmas sale. I was more concerned the past 2-3 years when the fire sale seemed to be never ending. It trains the customer to resist buying and just wait for that kit you want to show up 80% off.

I hadn't noticed the C11-3 disappearing, but sure enough it isn't listed on the Estes site anymore. Why did that happen? I believe those motors have had a poor history of reliability, so has Estes stopped making them all together? If so, I may need to stock up while vendors still have them available.
Click to expand...


I have been following the Estes "specials" page religiously for the past 18 to 20 months. At one point it was five pages long with many great deals. It is currently down to four items (not four pages) with no meaningful offers. I am trying to find a "positive" in this but I can't.

I suppose there is a possibility that they decided they were willing to give up sales volume for margin.
 
RickGr4 said:
I started this thread to vent some concerns I have based on clear and obvious evidence. Once again, I have a enough rocket kits to last for the rest of my lifetime. However I buy $2,000 per year worth of B through D engines and I would like to know that they will remain easily available and reasonably affordable.

I am extremely disappointed that some people decided to take my concerns to a personal (and childish) level. I was hoping for better from this group.
Click to expand...


Maybe if you started the thread with the goal of listening to any other views it might be different, however your childish stubbornness to consider any alternate conclusion besides your own is generally likely to result in others giving up and resorting to poking fun as the only possible continuation of the conversation.

Many rocketry products and companies have come and gone, however the hobby as a whole as been around for decades and will likely continue to be so. Your motors may have Estes, Quest, Aerotech, CTI or Loki on the label, but I'd wager the whole range, from A-O, will continue to be available. Maybe the label will change, maybe it wont, but if it still goes woosh does it really matter?
 
RickGr4 said:
I have been following the Estes "specials" page religiously for the past 18 to 20 months. At one point it was five pages long with many great deals. It is currently down to four items (not four pages) with no meaningful offers. I am trying to find a "positive" in this but I can't.

I suppose there is a possibility that they decided they were willing to give up sales volume for margin.
Click to expand...

Estes has a track record decades long. 18-20 months isn't a good window to look at to make claims like this.

also, a bloated specials page is an indication they're dumping stock that isn't moving. An empty specials page is a good thing.

I can't tell if you're trolling, 12 years old, or just pissed you can't get cheap rockets on the specials page and wanted to make noise.
 
RickGr4 said:
I have been following the Estes "specials" page religiously for the past 18 to 20 months. At one point it was five pages long with many great deals. It is currently down to four items (not four pages) with no meaningful offers. I am trying to find a "positive" in this but I can't.

I suppose there is a possibility that they decided they were willing to give up sales volume for margin.
Click to expand...

I guess I gotta repost this from earlier in response to your comment: "As for Estes specials on their website, there is a great response to that issue that shows up on the Model Rocket Building Website from an anonymous commenter: "There was a time when they didn't have any clearance specials on their website. Clearance specials like these don't last forever. Maybe they sold out of them? I predict it has nothing to do with the financial issues of the parent company, and more to do with it's time to end some of the specials. Most of those specials have been going on for the good part of a year, or over a year. You had plenty of time to buy, now it's over!"

The positive in that the sale page is almost non-existent is that they got rid of all the stuff that wasn't selling really well. Now they can make new stuff.
 
DavidMcCann said:
Estes has a track record decades long. 18-20 months isn't a good window to look at to make claims like this. Sorry but I don't agree. A decade long track record means very little in today's economy. Many larger and noteworthy companies have failed in less time.

also, a bloated specials page is an indication they're dumping stock that isn't moving. An empty specials page is a good thing. Sorry but once again I don't agree. I suspect that Estes makes way more $$$ selling engines than they do kits. However if they aren't selling and promoting kits there is less need for people to buy engines. What I am trying to point out is Estes specials page has changed so abruptly that I can't see any good in it.

I can't tell if you're trolling, 12 years old, or just pissed you can't get cheap rockets on the specials page and wanted to make noise.
Click to expand...
This comment is exactly what I mentioned earlier. A personal attack that is childish and well beneath what I believe this group is capable of. I am not trolling. I am not 12 years old. I am not pissed. As I mentioned earlier in this thread I have a enough rocket kits to last the rest of my foreseeable lifetime and I know where to find rocket kits at a discount other than Estes specials page.

Honestly David I don't know you and I also think you didn't read enough of this thread. At this point I think you owe me and this group an apology.
 
RickGr4 said:
Honestly David I don't know you and I also think you didn't read enough of this thread. At this point I think you owe me and this group an apology.
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Says the guy who called everyone naive and questioned the work ethic and production speed of John Boren, who I'm sure RickGr4 has never met.

Dave McCann owes you nothing. Go pound sand.
 
So what is the point of continuing this thread RickGr4? An Estes employee posted a response to one of your questions and you dismissed part of his response by saying employees are often the last to know about a company's health. The other people who have posted here have by and large dismissed by you as being naïve if they disagree with you. You don't believe the employee. You don't believe the other customers. What are you looking for?
 
RickGr4 said:
At this point I think you owe me and this group an apology.
Click to expand...

You're positive you're not a troll? And I didn't say "decade" I said "decades"

There are people here who have been watching estes for say, 30-40 years. We've got people in this thread who work for Estes....people who have seen the numbers the company produces and what their margins are.

You've got 18 whole months, of watching what they put on sale, and what your local hobby lobby is selling.

If you're not 12....and you're not a troll, then you are simply an idiot.
 
Last edited:
RickGr4 said:
I don't agree. Prove your statement.
Click to expand...

RickGr4 said:
Adding to this, what happened to the Pro Series E2X rockets? Maybe it is because Estes is no longer building motors to support them???

I love this hobby but I think certain people need to wake up and realize that this great hobby is headed for big changes.
Click to expand...

RickGr4 said:
All great points but I have a feeling that the business may in fact be running at a loss. They certainly don't appear to be spending any money to grow it...
Click to expand...

RickGr4 said:
Sorry but once again I don't agree. I suspect that Estes makes way more $$$ selling engines than they do kits. However if they aren't selling and promoting kits there is less need for people to buy engines. What I am trying to point out is Estes specials page has changed so abruptly that I can't see any good in it.
Click to expand...


Bolded to help. It's clear from your statements you know very little of the make up of Estes as a company, including its staff or financial situation. If you want to take the 'evidence' as you see it and worry yourself sick that is totally your prerogative. You are welcome to worry that the sky may fall, the sun may go super nova tomorrow or that the moon is composed of cheese and at risk of being eaten by space rats, however if you post these concerns in a public forum without sound reasoning and evidence people are going to tell you why you are wrong. If you continue to argue based on your 'feelings' and 'suspicions' while ignoring the evidence provided to counter your worries it's likely people will assume you are either trolling and being deliberately obtuse or that you really don't grasp the basics of what they are telling you. I suggest you take the time to re-read this thread and check the alternate points of view before posting further.
 
It's like watching Costello trying to figure out who's on first, but there are a dozen Abbots and Costello is alternating between insulting them and playing hurt bunny.
 
The Estes Special pages are there to get rid of excess stock that is not selling through our normal means of distributing our product. All our excess stock has been offered to our distributors at reduced prices. Once they no longer wish to get anymore it then goes on our Special page. When it is sold out it is taking OFF the specials page and you will most likely never see it again unless the kit is brought back in the future as an oldie bring back. So the Goal of the special pages on the Estes web site is to NOT have any special pages on the Estes web site as soon as possible. This means we've gotten rid of old stock so new stock can then be purchased. Pretty simple concept really.


John Boren
 
eljefe said:
I hadn't noticed the C11-3 disappearing, but sure enough it isn't listed on the Estes site anymore. Why did that happen? I believe those motors have had a poor history of reliability, so has Estes stopped making them all together? If so, I may need to stock up while vendors still have them available.
Click to expand...

I like C11 motors. I just flew some over a week ago.

I use C11-3 motors in rockets I would normally use with a D12-5 when there is wind or it's a small flying site (or both).
I have never had one fail or know of any widespread issues with this motor.

Word has it that the C11s are going to be discontinued due to low sales volume.
That may change with the new owners.

As for me, I need to get some more C11-3s. :)
 
Initiator001 said:
I like C11 motors. I just flew some over a week ago.

I use C11-3 motors in rockets I would normally use with a D12-5 when there is wind or it's a small flying site (or both).
I have never had one fail or know of any widespread issues with this motor.

Word has it that the C11s are going to be discontinued due to low sales volume.
That may change with the new owners.

As for me, I need to get some more C11-3s. :)
Click to expand...

Argh, I hope this doesn't come to pass. C11's have become my go-to for 3-4 oz LPR models with 24mm mounts (those would be my scratch-builds). Get about 500 ft out of them, easy recovery but they jump off the pad and don't weathercock. If these get discontinued I'll be throwing a big old order at AC Supply to stock up.
 
neil_w said:
Argh, I hope this doesn't come to pass. C11's have become my go-to for 3-4 oz LPR models with 24mm mounts (those would be my scratch-builds). Get about 500 ft out of them, easy recovery but they jump off the pad and don't weathercock. If these get discontinued I'll be throwing a big old order at AC Supply to stock up.
Click to expand...
Or you could upgrade to a Aerotech 24-40... Yeah... See how far an F punts an LPR.
 
BREAKING NEWS DEVELOPING ALERT
-------------------------------------
This just in. Some people say that RickGr4 is a Russian Troll Bot. Or possibly a deep-state agitator. Others say he's a rogue agent from Amazon or Alibaba, charged with breaking down trust in traditional commerce channels.

We report, You decide
 
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